You should look at what has sold very recently, not so much what is actively for sale. I have found some people do not want anything to do with short sales right now because of the time it takes to get one done and some people feel like if they are going to get a "deal" they are willing to wait for the lenders approval of the short sale.Although, just because it is a short sale, does not mean it is a good deal.... more
The Odenton Market has remained steady with the anticipation of BRAC coming to Ft. Meade. I have already worked with several military transfers coming to the area. With the bulk of the people yet to come property values are still low as the demand is still slightly below average for the county. New homes are being built in some parts but most of odenton is already developed so land is hard to find. Odenton is also a great place because of the location, the MARC train stops in Odenton and makes a great commute to DC. You are also close to the Balt./Wash Parkway and other major roads to give you options for the commute. Feel free to check out my website www.HolmeSweetHomes.com or www.CroftonAreaNeighbors.com for more information as well as current properties for sale.... more
Bonbon - as you indicate, county assessed values are not "market" values and the assessed values are really a function of how your county/state handles the home valuation process.
For example, in Colorado, the valuation process is completed every 2 years during the "odd" numbered years...so, in May 2007 my home was given a new value.....the value was based upon market values from 2005 and the first 6 months of 2006....so my home's valuation was based upon data that was 1-2 years old - that valuation will remain in place until May of 2009.....so if you were looking to buy my home in early 2009, the county's value for my home would be based upon data that was 3-4 years old. I am sure you would agree, the county's valuation of my home is probably out of date and different than the actual market value at that point.
So, depending on how your county /state does the tax valuation process, the county assessed value could be significantly different than the actual "market value" when a home is on the market.
Homes are still bought and sold house by house, neighborhood by neighborhood - I am not downplaying the analyst's comments as there probably are neighborhoods in the country that may see a 20% decline but I feel certain the Denver metro are is not going to see anything close to a 20% decline - my assessment is that it will stay flat or perhaps see a slight increase during the course of 2008. Will there be individual homes in the Denver market that will decline 20%? Possibly - a foreclosure that has been stripped and trashed due to anger could easily see that sort of decline, but that could happen in any market. There are also Denver neighborhoods that have continued to appreciate during the past 12 months. And, during the past 6 months, I have seen several homes sell in less than 7 days...is that every home, or even most homes? No, but it is happening and our inventory of available home is slowly being reduced. I recently heard that the number of sales in the Denver metro area for December 2007 was almost the same as December 2006 - that tells me that there were still a lot of Buyers out in the market and as long as there are a lot of Buyers, the prices will not be tumbling. You may want to find out how many homes sold in your area for the 4th quarter 2007 versus the 4th quarter 2006.
I cannot speak about home prices in your neighborhood but I would not rely on the county assessed values for determining what I might offer for a particular home - good luck in your search and thanks for your question - I will look forward to seeing responses from other parts of the country.... more
Mansur, I like your balanced and sensible answers too! I think the fear that some potential buyers like me have is that if we buy now and the market continues correcting itself, we might end up regretting our decision. On the other hand, it's good to know that AA County is more stable, for if I find a really good deal, there is very little chance that my property would depreciate below what I bought it for. If I were in California or even Northern Virginia, I'd wait for the price will probably continue falling there. In AA County, it seems to me, it's all about finding the right house at the right price (for the buyer, of course).... more