Hi Summer, great question, and I can help to answer part of it. First, take a look at these two charts to see the timing of the resets:
http://docs.Steven-Anthony.com/Resets.pdf (shows loan reset schedule)
http://docs.Steven-Anthony.com/OptionArmResets.pdf (shows accelerated loan reset schedule)
There was a very good article in the 4/8/09 SF Chronicle recently that explains where all the REOs are:
What the article does not touch on are the "loss-share" agreements banks who accepted TARP money have just about reached (once certain losses are taken by the banks the government starts taking losses). I know for a fact that many banks are laying off their REO employees to cut cost and will be going straight to Realtors to sell properties soon. I had heard rumors that the banks were "overloaded", but now that I understand the profit motive, or shall I say "capped liability" aspect, it's easy to understand why they are shadowing the inventory.
While the moratorium enacted by the State and some lenders individually, and yes, loan modifications may have also been a material factor in slowing the wave, I put most of my money on the "capped liability" ceiling as being a great motivator and primary factor in slowing the release of REOs to market.
I believe we will see a set of waves tied to banks reaching their loss-share ceilings rather than a huge single deluge. However, you can bet they’re on their way to shore right now.
Best, Steve... more
The neighborhoods of Mill Valley have witnessed very strong support during the last year or two of softening national market. Prices have continued their slow and steady rise [primarily driven by low supply and high demand. Marin County is beautiful, safe, very clean, close to the best city in the county, close to things people like to do (Sail, hike, bike, surf, windsurf, kitesurf, etc) and there is very liimited development expansion opportunities.... more