Carl Witzig- Weichert Agent

Mr Joe Home buyer in Detroit points out how each item that i mentioned in selling yourown home has an answer. The whole process is about numbers. The best price will come from the most pole who see your home. It si not that is can't be done, it is about getting the most people in. You can sell it but will you get the best price? You can buy a lock box for a key but will it be used by licensed agents only or the public? And what records will be kept as to who uses it? What percent of buyers avoid FSBOs? What percent of agents avoid MLS listings? What exactly is being accomplished by selling a home yourself? The implied savings in commission is expected by the buyer, isn't it? For every FSBO sale, what would have been netted by an aggressive marketing plan from a professional? But, try it for a period and you can always list if not satisfied with the results. - Mon Jun 30 2008, 12:02

Well, since realtor pros have 90% of the listings, what can you do to attract attention to your home? Price it below the competition is the only way that makes sense. But then, why do you want to sell it yourself? Will you be home all day, 7-days a week and able to show your home when buyers want to see it? Are you writing a how-to book and need the experience? Are you looking to fill extra time otherwise not occupied? Do you like to write ads and marketing materials? Do you like to spend money on an Internet presence to grab attention of the 75% of buyer who start looking on line? Do you believe buyers will tell you the truth about what they think of your home, you being the owner? Do you like to negotiate with buyers who want you to give them the savings you are getting by not paying a realtor? Do you like opening your house to strangers for Open House so you can duplicate the effort of getting buyers to see your home? Can you provide financing options for buyers to be sure they are qualified to buy your home? Of all these things, taking less money for your home will likely be the outcome. But I could be wrong. I would like to fix my car but I don't know how. I tried pulling my own tooth once. Hurt like blazes and bled. Good luck with doing it yourself though. - Fri Jun 27 2008, 17:54

Cindy,
I really didn't mean to call you a bottom feeder. I do not recall exactly what your offer versus price and certainly don't know the market value in Cleveland area. Was it offer 99K for 150K price? On the surface it appears to be a "bottom" or very low offer.
Agents can miss the number that a seller will accept, plus they change. I had one where the price went up when the heirs put a little fix up into an estate sale. It telegraphs that the price is maybe firm becuase the LP went from 269K to 273K. Will they take less? Many buyers might think, no, probably not. But then there have been no offers at any price so who knows.

All this advice is good but there is no absolute one answer. Each property has its own drama. An agent can look at the tax records for the previous sale price and estimate the equity, as the example posted on bought in 2000 or before. Probably has some wiggle room in selling. But you see, spending time searching for such a property then must pass your test for desirability, condition, location etc. If I was there, I would look at MLS for areas you want. Of those that look promising, I would check the tax records for history. I would call the seller's agent for info. An agent likely would not but you could go to town hall and look for unlisted properties in trouble.

How about this. Since you know where you want to live, knock on some doors in that area, of homes that roughly look like the price range, and ask questions. It's not like you will buy anywhere in Ohio or even Cleveland or Cuyahoga Falls. Pick your 'hood and walk and talk to people.

By the way, how is the financing part of your offer? Credit score, down payment ratio, payment with taxes within 1/4 to 1/3 of income? FHA or conventional? These things can be factors in your offer acceptance. - Mon Jun 23 2008, 05:44

The link below is not free. As a member of GS MLS I can provide, because I pay for it, a search of properties on the market. Sellers list with realtors to try and sell before loosing their home inforeclosure. Banks list with realtors in order to rid their books of property and expenses (taxes, maintenance). However, unless a prospect is serious and behaving like a buyer, agents will not waste time, since they only get paid when someone buys. Believe it or not, an agent must spend as much effort in learning who is going to buy and who is not as they do showing, writing, driving, learning, negotiating, solving, prospecting, and advertising real estate. Frankly, someone who has spent a lot of time avoiding realtors and trying to do what they do on the cheap, is just the person the agent does not want to spend time with. They disquise themselves well sometimes and only reveal their true identity when they have to, such as placing as offer with a realtor. The tipoff is their offer is 30% or more lower than asking price or about what they think is owed on the property. So you see, after all that time, the offer is unlikely to be accepted. Thankfully there are not a lot of such 'bottom feeders' but enough to keep the best agents constantly testing the motivation of the buyer. Good Luck anyway. - Sun Jun 22 2008, 16:58

Maybe you can see why I say, there are no fire sales in real estate. What appears to be a distressed situation, a foreclosure owned by the bank which does not want to own real estate, is not easy to obtain especially with a deadline of 'in by May' unless you mean 2009. Then you may be able to get in. Reliable info is hard to come by (not impossible). Unless you want to buy in LasVegas or some area with major inventory excess, prices will be near market value. If you want to test what I am saying, make an offer atl ist price and see what happens. You can withdraw it in attorney review or within 3-business days depending on local custom where you are. All this just to get a property below market value? A 'fire sale' implies any offer, just take it away. Again, I claim they are rare if at all, exceptions noted. - Sun Jun 22 2008, 06:14

You have seen a few 'fire sales lately', properties priced at a fraction of their value? Really? Where would that be? - Sun Jun 15 2008, 06:15

Any realtor can help. Look on any MLS web site. Listings have to be labeled as foreclosures, bank owned, or third party approval required, or similar language. Expect "as is", needs work, no credits for condition, market price for the local area. There are no fire sales in real estate. - Fri Jun 13 2008, 14:35

Zack, you write a convincing post on the dream, the same old ways etc. With that approach I actually agree with you. I can verify that young people largely buy because it is what they are supposed to do. Proof is seen in the fact that a majority must have approval of parents, which in the business, is called the kiss of death by old time agents. Under motivation to buy are these reasons: tired of renting (never defined), our first house, taxes too high, need a larger place, want a smaller place-down sizing, want better schools or closer commute, close to church of choice, escaping bad location-crime-schools, pretty much in that order. Once done, they are satisfied. I do not see nor can imagine buying the wrong house that does not fit the reason they want to buy. Do people settle and compromise, yes, all the time.

The process is exhausting at times, for buyers, sellers and agents. In these times, the guidance of an experienced professional- agent, attorney, inspector, lender's agent, is more important than ever. Explaining the subtleties of short sales, foreclosed, as is, no contingencies accepted, and offer presented in person only can be daunting to grasp. I wonder, if it were a pleasure to move, would more people do it?
Good luck on the new thread question. It should be interesting. - Sun Jun 22 2008, 15:38

Zack, now you are reelaing that you just like to bait people. Home ownership as a dream is not what is craked up to be, you say. Isn't that why they call it a dream? Why are you so agin home ownership? You own a co-op and look for a condo or SF house, you say. You might rent if a bargain comes along.
Was your mother frightened by a foreclosure process server maybe? Now you compare local home prices over 10 years to the S&P average nationally to prove that a home is less profitable as an investment therefore don't buy one? You are afraid democrats will tax you while they further ruin the values of real estate. What else are you afraid of? And of top of everything else you accuse others of being paranoid?
Lord, help this poor man. I recommend Harold Camping, bible expert. He informs us that the world ends Oct 11, 2011. Now that is a prediction I can live with. The bank can have my property after that.

Open House today- Lots of condos for sale, moving slowly. Buyers galore waiting to make their move. Interest rates up a small bit over 2-3 months ago. Why wait? - Sun Jun 22 2008, 08:20

John the Brute: Says, "In no other time in history could persons with no verifiable income leverage hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt against an asset with zero risk to themselves, i.e. no down payment, no “skin in the game.” The fallout from this will be nothing short of catastrophic for the U.S. financial system and over-leveraged consumers everywhere."
It is not the lending of money to purchase homes that you rant against, it is the misuse of the system isn't it? Maybe you can help write rules for lenders-
1) No lender or its agent shall choose its own appraisers in order to assess value.
2) go ahead, John. What else? - Fri Jun 20 2008, 14:29

Yes, that is what I want my FBI doing; chasing those mortgage fraud scoundrels. The system works alright- let financial markets operate as they will and if and when billions are lost to criminal behavior, put the FBI on the case. Seems like the same reasoning for continuing to allow hands guns. Sure they are dangerous and made to kill humans, but just arrest those who use them in a bad way, enforce the laws, more police is the answer to that. Can you think of any alternatives that might work?

And to the anonymous guy posting from "USA Mobile", on renting in Spokane, Tampa, SF, Chicago and anywhere else, what an expert! How can you be so useful in so many towns at the same time? Spiderman? I'm impressed.

This is a real estate blog and realtors make a living facilitating transactions- guilty. There is a branch of RE that teaches anyone about the business, for a fee. I recommend it. I will even help anyone who wants to try and sell their own home, for free. Just ask. - Fri Jun 20 2008, 04:39

Useful site for buyers in this unregulated, outside-the-pervue-of-the-bank-regulation-system-intended-to-provide-some-safe-guards-for-citizens market. For those who shun regulatory oversight and protection from a well-regulated system, and feel that we should all fend for ourselves and let unfettered commerce run rampant as it wishes, and whose heroes must be among the 406 arrested for mortgage fraud reported today, let us make a list of resources then to be informed.
http://ml-implode.com

Re: Calling the bottom- town absorption rate improving. Bloomfield NJ today 6.4 months. Last month 8.4 months. Also, actually eye-balling homes for sale, sales being made, buyers interviewed at Open Houses as to what they think- "hoping to see prices drop, not happening so looking to buy now," average sales price closed compared to previous months, year.
I guess that clinches it then. I am open for business. No more doomsday predictions which contribute to a loss of confidence and is bad for the country- unpatriotic. If you need that house, be the first to jump in and be happy. Homes come with a new mortgage. Just ask! - Thu Jun 19 2008, 14:30

I am calling the bottom of the market, the first to do so. Now is one of the best times in my life time to buy a home. Needed: credit score of 680 or better, down payment of 10-20% or as low as 3% FHA with higher rate, variety of financing options- fixed, adj rate, interest only- wide selection of homes, from fixer-uppers to move-in-condition, all prices, all sizes. Reasons not to be a buyer: 1) you do not need a home, 2) you live with your mother, 3) you have no credit-no money-no interest-prefer renting-are overly cautious or cannot make a decision due to some mysterious trauma as a child. - Wed Jun 18 2008, 14:20

John,
So your retort is to recite a red-baiting accusation? In the 1960's I was accussed by a neighbor of the same thing, for reading TIME magazine and the St. Louis Post Dispatch. He was a John Bircher and supported Barry Goldwater. We survived that right-wing extremism and maybe we can overcome the damage of Reaganism.
But seriously folks, in the complicated economy of the 21st century, is there not some rationale for regulation if not to prevent the worse instincts of man, such as greed, fraud, and deception? Applied to the airline industry, is it a public utility for the good of all, or is it the unregulated and unprofitable mess that it has become? Not even the oil excutives can explain the price spiral related to simple supply and demand. Futures trading is a nice platform to become wealthy but when it comes to basic necessities, shouldn'tt there be effective oversight? Mortgages with escalators in a declining market may be legal contracts but are they good public policy? - Fri Jun 13 2008, 04:31

Not that it matters, but someone climbed all over me about my observation on the speculation effect on the oil and gas price issue, saying it is BS. I just learned that China has used 900 billion $ of oil in a recent year and the effect of unregulated futures trading in oil has added the equivalent of 700 billion $ to the total. I am incensed over the present price situation stemming from the deregulation of financial markets back in the Reagan years. He was too dense to be culpable himself, but his philosophy of laisse faire free marketing led to what we have today.

The housing market is a slow one to react. Commodities are much faster. If we have a hurricane, oil prices jump on the news. A freeze in Florida and OJ goes up next week based on futures trading and speculation not on actual supply and demand. You geniuses out there, how does laisse faire economics applied to housing play out? - Thu Jun 12 2008, 16:33

I found this city data: http://ziprealty.typepad.com/marketconditions/chicago_real_e…
But price segments and local markets vary from the aggregate numbers. A careful use of MLS data is the best way to spot trends in prices. It takes time to create the search criteria.

I do a price trend analysis for sellers to pitch the listing. This tells us the trend from now, recently sold-under contract, closed 6 months ago and 12 months or longer. The trend can be helpful as to staying ahead of the market in a slow market. Priced correctly the property should sell within 5% of the LP. Recently, an offer came in with 10 days of the listing and seller's response was, let's wait, it is too soon. My response was, it demonstrates how accurate the LP is not that it is too low. But sometimes even the most diligent effort cannot account for illogical decisions, by both buyers and sellers. My point is, even if the data supports a market price, it is worthless data if the parties don't use it to take action. Home buying is about emotion and subjectivity as much as precision with numbers. IMHO of course. Good luck. - Wed Jun 11 2008, 16:15

Nick,
The nice thing about you is that you are at least honest about your hesitancy. If you don't want or need to buy, you are entitled to your reasons, absolutely. Any agent would tell you, "When you are ready please let me know." They would pry you for your hesitancy to see if there was anything they could do or say. Actually, only a few would have the patience to even try and convince you. It seems you look for the market to level or start up again, in price that is, before you will allow yourself the emotional investment of even looking for a home. My own view is, if you are looking, when you find the perfect house, you will not be able to hold back. If I am correct, you better not be looking, even casually. - Wed Jun 11 2008, 08:50

Nick,
You posts are perfectly thought out. You are over-analytical. If you needed a house, that would be the dominant factor for your actions. Looking for that perfect time to buy based strictly on economics is an exercise for very few. Agents spend time, limited as it is, with people who want to buy a home, not searching for that extra piece of data to satisfy the esoteric musings of a fence-sitter. My office had an agent who was brilliant at doing endless calculations and comparisons of towns, periods, types and factors. He found no customers, showed no houses to buyers, filled no ones needs, sold no houses, made no money, and eventually quit.

By the way, getting back into the market, as you say, implies that real estate is a constant, on-going endeavor. Actually it is a priority an average of 6-8 times in a lifetime. During that intense time, using an agent who you like and trust well enough to help you find the next home and then manage the process to a conclusion (closing), is the wisest course. You can do some of it yourself, but why?

Many buyers are ready to move from what they have but casually, almost haphazardly, look for a home. The drive likely streets, maybe call numbers on signs, maybe randomly visit open houses. They might get lucky in an unplanned way. Time is not an important factor, no urgency. Agents try to scoop them up as they find them. And that is pretty much the life of an agent. Working with people who want to be helped and looking for the casual person and trying to create some urgency.

Way too much time on this board; it is addicting, isn't it? - Wed Jun 11 2008, 05:19

Nick,
You obviously don't need a house. Why are you baiting Christine and Nancy? - Tue Jun 10 2008, 17:03

Some posts make it seem as though buying a house is an option for everyone. You take the market as you find it, don't you? If you need a house, you must work with what is available in the area that you want. It is more like, Good, Better, Best in houses no matter what the market situation is.

I don't feel a buyer has a picnic right now. I ask everyone how they like the process. They hate it. "Too much to see, too many dingey, ugly, dirty houses." "Too many are over priced for the amenities offered." "Lenders are slow to act and decide." "It is not easy." Seller's are confused and angry. "No offers." "Too low." "Buyers change their mind." "Loans are tough to get."

Buyers want houses, Sellers want to move on. But optional buyers and sellers, seemingly referred to here, who don't have to buy or sell, are usually avoidable because they waste time. Every now and then they sneak through and appear to be serious and so it takes a while to discover their true agenda. This has been the challenge of agents forever.

What do the professionals do in order to spend time with serious customers who might take action? - Tue Jun 10 2008, 13:16

This just in from Maryland:
"Down in Potomac, Md., agents are taking advantage of the improving market and have helped the office’s transaction sides rise 131 percent year-over-year in May."
Dreaming or reality? Improving or getting worse? Bottom reached or not? Wait and see or act now? Need a house? Buy. Don't need a house? Don't buy. It is that simple. Oh, to be in Maryland where life is simple.
Sometimes you may think it is not a good time to buy or that someone is out to cheat you, but all those other people don't get it and the market is made without you. I guess everyone does not think the same. - Mon Jun 9 2008, 07:47

Manny, I give you a thumbs up on your last.
On the oil issue, supply and lack of investment by companies is up against demand from India and China, as you note. I saw my first $4 gal regular, sign yesterday here in NJ. Somehow, the traffic yesterday was extra heavy. Makes you wonder, other than the news outlets, who notices what is going on? I have begun to think that most house buyers are the same sort that drive about on their off. In other words, oblivious to the surroundings. I see it in those sellers who will not lower their price or accept 10 % less than list price. The agent with the best sales this year that I know, is going fine with buyers who seem unaware of any down economic factors. You mention not doing business as usual, how about:
House size needed?
Price range?
What real estate news are you aware of? None__, Some,___, A lot, ___
What percentage of the public acts responsibly at any given time?
Is the profile of the 2008-9 house buyer- drives a large SUV, or drives a premium fuel user, has a 700 credit score, has 10% or more down.
Yesterday I went to the track to bet on Big Brown. I chatted up a few strangers. "What will the heat do to Brown?" No one had any idea. He was such a favorite though, they all said you could not make any money on him. I figure these diehard horse players area fraction of the population. yet they knew enough to not bet on Big Brown. Not because he may not do well in the heat, but because he was not going to return a nice profit. But there were more people like me, the occasional player, who bet the horse and lost. Real estate may be like horse racing. You can apply science and performance knowledge but luck and surprises occur. Need a house, do your best with what is out there. Use a sharp and likeable agent who will be dig for the best deal for you.
Open House today on one of my listings, I will ask visitors what they know and think of the market today. I will survey for depth of knowledge. Later. - Sun Jun 8 2008, 06:53

Manny, slow down. What are you drinking? I was commenting on oil and fuel prices as to being connected in a direct way. Supply and demand in housing plays a part in prices but in the in the East where housing is 99% older and little is new, supply is largely over priced and slow to come down, which is what I was commenting on- 2-4 years maybe. You have a sarcastic and offensive tone in your posts that is unbecoming an intelligent and educated man that you are. You appear to bein the UK. How's the market there? - Sat Jun 7 2008, 12:26

Oil prices and gasoline are not as connected as posters imply. Economists (Business Week cover story) tell us it is the speculators, futures market that cause the pump prices to rise. Conservatives including Bush want us to believe that Alaskan and off shore drilling will cure our pain. Not true at all.

Lenders are over reacting right now and will settle into a rythym around 10-20% down, profitable rates (for them), attention to inventory condition- new being better than old unless updated- and all this over 2-4 years as sellers stonewall their prices as long as possible. IMHO of course. Based on my econ courses at Bradley U 50 years ago from Kalman Goldberg and experience in the market. How can you beat a good education and experience, now I ask you.

Heading for the track and a bet on Big Brown. Might pay off better than my real estate sales of late. - Sat Jun 7 2008, 07:23

Thank you , Zack.
Today I submitted an offer on an 'as is' house, part of an estate, $259K, for 1st time buyers, FHA 3% down. House is priced at its value and to sell. I tried 10% below asking, which went no where. Comps say price is low but so is the house, even 'low down.' Doing research I learned thet FHA today is the dominate force in the lower price range. They no longer use the forms and criteria for appraising as before. The issues are health and safety- roof, loose paint, railings, electric-GFR, everything working, plumbing-no leaks, no loose floor coverings, broken steps. There will be no closing unless everything is fixed and reinspected. No carry-overs by buyer. As a result, the 'as is' seller will be involved after all. Few buyers will do be able to do the work before closing. This will be interesting as it unfolds and moves forward.

My Short sale, approved by seller 5/7, still has not cleared the bank, 30 days later. This inefficiency by some banks angers me for many reasons. Somehow, in the end, some banks will report poor operating results, ultimately pay less taxes and everyone will suffer due to their poor management. Some will go bankrupt. Some will be bailed out by more tax money. Banks have a license to steal if ever there was one. George Bailey, we need you more than ever. - Thu Jun 5 2008, 17:42

Cat fight, oooh.
Boys, boys. Your math skills are commendable but the principle should not be lost that the lower numbers benefit from a higher number being added to the 'hood, or the sum to be averaged in this case. The perfect market tool would be one with precision as to exact match of properties, which seldom exists, and without emotion, such as, "I don't know honey, I just like this one better."

The MLS Sold list is about as good as is ever done. Better accuracy might come from a search of public records for private sales but that is inefficient for the possible added accuracy. You come as clsoe as possible as to what is fair and make an offer. The appraiser will take it from there. Lately, they have been asked to jump through hoops. One told me this week that the bank wants original photos, not from the MLS and a visit to the courthouse for private sales. His fee is the same but his gas expense plus added time is being increased in this new tight market. Credit score is now 700 for the lowest rate. My doctor, looking for a house, lost on 3 offers made, within 10% of asking price as seller's hold out for their price and his lender, CitiBank asked for more than 10% down or a .5% more on the rate. The lenders seem to be having a major impact as they tighten up.

Despite what has been posted, most banks do not respond soon enough on short and foreclsure offers. It takes weeks not 3 days. At least in large metro areas. - Tue Jun 3 2008, 15:22

Not sure I need to respond- AJ mentions my name, saying he has posted to me referring to realtors being unethical. I merely feel they are narrowly pushing the old text book spin of positive hype. By now we know the bubble really has been inflated by lending practices. We are getting things confused with the rent vs buy argument. I think we have turned up a few objective formulae to play with. Frankly I do not believe realtors are asked for advise on a simple either -or proposition. We sell houses to people who want to buy houses. The job is mostly searching for the best or right one for a buyer, finding buyers for sellers, helping with finding a lender if needed, monitoring the process of buying or selling, facilitating the multiple steps in due diligence towards closing the contract. I don't believe very many home owners throughout history have been victimized by realtors. Nor are many realtors intentionally unethical. They can however, be stupid, unprofessional, sarcastic, aggressive, over bearing, inattentive, clumsy, homely and have bad breath. These often are the ones earning the most money. Go figure. - Sun Jun 1 2008, 19:11

Re: Consumer confidence question by Ryan,
I am not sure how this is arrived at. An opinion from a survey sample? What is the survey methodology?

Rent vs buy? I find that about.com has useful ideas and metrics.
Here is one on this question. http://homebuying.about.com/od/buyingahome/qt/BuyorRent.htm

Notice that they mention that the credit score is a major factor in renting-buying. It is not always as simple as a math formula using economic projections and the present value of money.

I use a spread sheet from about.com they have on deciding the value of an investment in real estate at a given price for a given return. It is an Exel format, plugging in the known factors- rent, utilities, taxes, insurance, interest rate, etc. Hope it helps anyone diligently trying to be objective about RE.
Carl - Fri May 30 2008, 14:02

Rather than continue to analyze home financing ups and downs, casting fault where it belongs etc, let us discuss the buyers and sellers feelings as a result of this, and of the economy in general. We are all hit by rising prices in food and fuel. Jobs are steady in many places. The DJ averages are up and down and mostly steady. I don't hear buyers saying they are postponing buying. They are looking for bargains or more for their money. Sellers are still looking for 2005-6 prices and expect within 10% of list price. The troubled short-sales and bank owned properties are taking a long time to sell and resolve, mostly because the lenders are bogged down with protocols and policies. A committee has to decide on each sale. We all know how slow a committee can be in making a decision.

As fuel becomes more dear, and public mass transit and pooling and walking etc become a reality, will communities wither if they are far from the jobs? Will those thrive which are on main lines of buses and trains? Will there be a spurt in building concentrated housing blocks on urban thoroughfares? - Thu May 22 2008, 16:14

Two listings this week in Bloomfield NJ. Unit sales down 17% 12 months to 12-months, but prices averge 3% up. With news reports plus blogs, public can be confused and misled.

Biggest obstacle now is with so many foreclosures, banks do not respond in a timely manner. Countrywide takes weeks to respond to offers. Buyers become frustrated in waiting. I don't undersatand why they can't do better, change their handling procedures. They don't want to own houses but are flummoxed by the work. If I was a stock holder I would be angry at management. - Thu May 22 2008, 06:31

Zack: you asked about absorption rate- For Sale divided by under contract in past 30 days- as a measure of the local market. Always a pitfall is the number of each. Small numbers can be misleading. You ask about factors: location is the biggest. Towns with positives such as connection to NYC in the case of North Jersey. Next is social demographic. Montclair is a diverse and multi-cultural (60% white, 32% Af Am) community, with 6 stations for the direct train to Penn Station. Turnover is about 3 this week, (154 divided b 64) a seller's market maybe depending on the price-condition-amenities. Contrast that with East Orange with 2 train stations requiring train switch in Newark for Penn Sta. Turnover is 14 months (220 divided by 15); demographics are 90% Af Am, 4% white). Household income median- Montclair $75,000, East Orange $32,300.
Absorption rate is a marker only, useful to buyer who may be considering an offer and is smart enough to use the sales rate as a factor in how much to offer. The rate can change by 1-3 months in a month.
There are more listings than a year ago, everywhere. Number sold is down in the county of Essex, but up in Montclair, down in East Orange. Prices 1/2% up in Montclair but down 10% in East Orange, 12 months to 12-months comparison.

Buyers are well employed, credit scores good to excellent (650-750+), down payments of 10-20%, up grading and down sizing. A smaller number are looking for bargains (30+% discounts) and not finding them. First time buyers are steady, hoping to find what they want at affordable price, finding financing a challenge unless they have down payment. But, trumping everything is location and condition. Nice ones sell readily.
I'll be here all week. - Sun May 18 2008, 07:01

Not that he needs any help, but AJ makes the case quite well about the superlatives and exaggerations by posters on owning real estate. He owns a co-op in NYC and turns down the invite to move to Edison, NJ. Is there anyone in the world who can blame him? Just the opportunity to ride in the Cash Cab is enough reason to move to Manhattan. Then there is eveything else.

Me thinks this thread has reached its limit; getting reptitive. It was fun for awhile.

There are star performers in real estate- top producers. I am amazed at what they can do in this market. They have listings galore, write contracts weekly. You have to hand it to them for their abilities whether you like it or not. The major trick is to find that buyer or seller who is motivated to get it done. Sometimes it is difficult to determine that motivation, maybe now more than ever. - Sat May 17 2008, 16:43

I object to the characterization of agreeable realtors must be having a bad sales year. Remember, there is nutritional value in real estate. If you buy from me, I will eat better.

But seriously folks, I heard the most successful realtor in my area today say, its the media's fault. "If only they would say, in some but not all areas, the market is down." Now I know what it feels like to be a republican and blame the media.

Thank you. I'll be here all week. - Fri May 16 2008, 12:54

You, an anonymous poster, have people at the bank calling you about good deals on property foreclosures rather than list and get a better price. You better stay anonymous because if the bank examiners knew of your playing with insiders at the bank to the detriment of stockholders and violating laws, we would read about you in news. Which banks, for example have you dealt with? Which city or state do you do this in? I won't tell on you. Promise. - Thu May 15 2008, 18:09

You miss the point. There is no sale to bottom feeders. They buy from 'poor ignorant saps'. Who would accept 1/3 or more less than property value? Remember, an offer from a bottom feeder is wasting time. My time. - Thu May 15 2008, 16:53

I think I can speak for many, if not all realtors when I say, bottom feeders, as the self-proclaimed "Don't Buy" poster declares, are pretty much avoided as soon as we can identify them. They come well disguised at times. A call to the front desk, 'I'd like to see this listing'. We jump because it sounds like what we have been waiting for, an interested buyer who has seen the property, maybe on-line, maybe the sign. They are positive on the house, ask intelligent questions, follow-up required is not unusual. When they say they want to make an offer, Hooray, payday maybe. Sitting down to write the offer we find it is fraction of the list price, maybe 1/3 more or less. It is so low that we hesitate to take the time to write it up to present in-person, where the best chance of acceptance is likely. Gee, that is so low, what makes you think the seller will like that offer, we ask. The bottom feeder often says he knows the property is in default.
I ask why would an owner take less than the house is worth, 1/3 less?

Of course, some owners do take less than the value of the property if the sheriff's sale is eminent, the bank will not agree to a short sale, and to avoid a foreclosure on the credit record. So Mr. Bottom, prefers to skulk around the town hall and find properties in trouble and knock on doors to find the owner who will sell well below value. So you see, Mr. Bottom really competes with us for the listing. Smart owners list and thereby get a better price, always hoping they can preserve something for themselves. If Mr. Bottom can beat down realtors, for free over the internet, he is serving himself as he preys on the unfortunate, (he calls them poor ignorant saps). He is just the kind of chap you hope your daughter never meets. - Thu May 15 2008, 15:37

It is becoming apparent that no one really cares what we did or what we usually do. What are we going to to do, for a living, if the economy does not turn around? It does not matter who or what put us in this pickle. Pointing fingers is not going to help. Lenders are making loans to good credit scores and with down payments of something (10-20%) rather than nothing. Some people who must sell are willing to negotiate. Buyers who need a home and want to move now can find a nice deal. We realtors may take a little longer to show all the possibilities but we can get it done. We can save some time by zeroing in on the best choices. We can show you what you get in a rental compared to a purchase of a home, if you think that is really what you want to consider. I have not seen anyone who really has not decided whether to rent of buy, but if you have not decided , we can help you.

If you want an investment advisor, I can recommend my own. I get nothing for it. That is not me field. I can give you a list of experts in many fields.

The market is slow, buyers are sitting on the side lines. So I am writing a novel. Back to work.
Carl - Wed May 14 2008, 17:00

"Because Real Estate will never be this cheap again and smart investors will understand the concept of buying low and selling high . It is a better investment than the stock market which everyone knows will never be a sellers market and a buyers market at the same time and that is even more true in real estate."
Man, that is scary. AJ, Richard, I see what you mean.
I'll be checking my garden now. Check please. - Tue May 13 2008, 13:04

As a former bill collector, I note the incredulity over walking away from debts. One of my best techniques for finding a dead beat, called "skips" in the business was to go to a neighbors house and say, " I have an insurance check for Mr. X, (the debtor.) Can you help me because I can't close the file until he gets the check." Usually it would produce an address or name to follow up on. I always thought it was ironic that the smell of money will entice the animal in anyone. And, it is not always a greedy lender getting the poor debtor in over his head. There are people who plan these things. There is a listing near me whereby the owner has left the country for his home land, walking away from the debt. Another I know of, the owner is headed for federal prison on drug convistions and listed his house as a short sale to recover something maybe, and avoid effecting his credit. You can't make this stuff up. - Tue May 13 2008, 06:38

Wow, this just in. Zillow reports prices increase in Montclair, NJ. I look and they have flagged Montclair with a .6% increase and nearby Newark with .7% increase. Of course, Montclair has an absortion rate of less than 3 months and Newark's is over 18 months. You should be very cautious with Zillow data for many reasons. However, if prices are rising, is this a good time to buy a house if I need a house and have the ability to borrow the money and still live comfortably and not run the risk of loosing money if I have to sell within 6 years? Is it? - Mon May 12 2008, 15:11

Aj - keeps making the claim that homes as investments are not as good as some other. But, the other investments do not come with roof over your head. NAr does not claim that homes are the very best investments for return. If the facts say that over a past historical period the payment for a house has led to an increase of x%, it merely means that along with a sense of comfort and well being, the payment for a home has a good chance of performing as an investment. Of all the things you may need in life, a home, a car, clothes, food, which can ( not will) likely increase in value? I guess the NAR point should come with a disclaimer that "the purchase of a home may result in the loss of money if you sell in a down cycle, too soon after purchase to recover closing and selling costs, purchase at a price in excess of the real market value based on your emotion driven quest to have what you cannot afford, and based on some slick agent-banker-lender fast talking you into a destructive proposition for your own good. On the other hand, you will have the benefit of common sense you were born with, the advise of relatives and friends who will second guess you decision, inspectors and appraisers who will advise on pitfalls both physical and financial, attorneys some of whom will have your best interests at heart."

Selling up- now that is a new one to consider. Once I learn that you can pay more for more house but are trying to buy beneath your station, you are not behaving as an American. Yeah, that happens every day. LOL. I love this site. - Mon May 12 2008, 14:55

So advertising is naturally deceptive? The site and message are hilarious? Your sense of humor is unique. Can you be more specific?
How does a realtor get a $60,000 income family into a $500,000 house? Unless they have the money, they want it, they have the credit and ability to pay any financing program. Are you sure you have a villian here? Or, the correct villian? - Mon May 12 2008, 12:57

Bashing or even believing that the NAR advertising the benefits of home ownership is bad or contributed to the foreclosure bubble gives too much credit to outside inflenences on buyers deciding to the home they want. Although for someit may be true that any roof at all is better than being homeless, buyers decide based their list of needs and 'must haves' plus a few wants ifit is possible. Invariably a buyer shops far a house and eliminates those that fit a profile. Usually the profile is a price range, a number of rooms, a neighborhood or town, a school district and the like. When they find one with over 80% of their needs and wants, it becomes emotional; the staging, the colors, the need for changes, the pool, etc. I doubt that buyers are swayed into their status by institutional advertising. A specific house ad may get their attention. We should get Jerry Della Femina, the adv guru to comment on advertising for home ownership versus ads for specific houses. He got my attention with the Meow Mix commercials but my cat convinced me to buy the product. - Mon May 12 2008, 11:27

Chandler-Maryland and Tim-Boston:
Two different markets then. Boston and NJ are nearly alike on foreclosure's condition. Maryland must have more recently built inventory and plenty of housing. We are short here, keeping prices up. Seller's of older homes who can stand to reduce prices to sell, are doing OK. Seller's who can fix up and stage the house are doing OK. But median prices are well above median incomes; more than 4 times. - Mon May 12 2008, 07:19

Paul- I appreciate the criticism. I used the phrase "virtually all foreclosures have" to avoid "always" or other absolutes. There are always exceptions to the rule. At the low end of price range, I have yet to see one that is 'move-in condition'. As you say, it happens oncein a while, I would hope. Around here- NJ, "as is" means seller will do no repairs and give no credits. Of course, if a deal is good otherwise, even that can be softened. We have one area broker/agent who demands the buyer do all inspections, do appraisals and have loan approval, with non refundable deposit. He gets a way with it often enough. He does nothing to market except MLS and take phone calls. Local markets differ, for sure. - Mon May 12 2008, 05:40

Re "fire sales"- there are no fire sales in real estate. Banks would go broke if they did that. Foreclosure prices are no less than what will make the bank whole or close to it. If there is equity in the property for the owner-seller it is returned to the mortgagee. But usually there is none left after late payments eat it up. Almost always, real estate sells for market value. The value is debatable of course. Banks do not want to own houses nor make a profit selling them. Notice that virtually all foreclosures need work and are sold "as is" for the buyer to fix them up. They may also come with liens that the seller cannotor will not clear,leaving the buyer to deal with it. - Sun May 11 2008, 06:31

Maybe the canyon of difference can be settled. There are no bargains in real estate in many markets. Where there is a shortage of housing for the incomes that is, there will be high prices. If the population is dense enough and there are enough incomes to match the higher prices, the market will seem normal and even hot. When housing is plentiful, even over built, the market will be slow to non-existant. Seems simple but it explains the difference in North Jersey and Las Vegas or parts of Florida. The rest of the answer to RE market slow down lies in the rising prices of fuel, energy in general, food, and other things as the employment picture turns darker and employment relocates, often to foreign shores. To make matters worse, the unregulated (outside of banks) financial entities (Bear,Stearns etc) and exotic loan programs based on low-no down, interest only etc have produced headlines which scare the majority. Look at local income median and median housing prices. If they are near a ratio of 3, prices are normal. If they are near 5 or more, there is a lot of scrabbling and scratching for bargains, and low-ball offers. As a realtor, I am screening buyers for their objectives and financial situation. Anyone with 10-20% down is different from 3% FHA and no money for closing costs. The days are over for jumping in the car and showing a house and hope to catch up later on the buyer's needs and condition. Pre-approval or near it and then we look. - Sat May 10 2008, 11:12

Argument over: Suze Orman on the Today Show this morning, said, "if you have 10-20% down, buying a house that requires no more than 60% of your income, including taxes, utilties, insurance, if you need a home". Let us convert this space to a nice thread on "investing in this economy." What would you do? Sell our mutual funds? Our individual stocks? - Sat May 10 2008, 05:48

AJ- you asked about my post, not that anyone cares, but: I was writing of only NJ and your math seems correct. Prices are too high for the incomes (medians). I make no claims to know why, other than to say the forces working in the housing market are more than supply and demand. I personally cannot buy my own house today. I know of few who can. As a realtor I look for people who can and want to.
As far as "always going up in value," is not my statement. Not all realtors are the same. Over time housing prices have risen at an irregular rate that averages a positive number if the period is long enough. I believe you have proven that a loss is true for a shorter period. On the ethical part, I feel the use of the word "always" is not unethical as much as it is sloppy word selection, or maybe abbreviated wording found on the internet. We have established that as pure investment a house is beaten by other choices. But those choices don't come with a roof, fireplace, 3 bedrooms, garden, deck, bird feeder and front porch. Your astuteness has been rewarding to read. Keep up the good work. If you want to consider Montclair, please let me know. We have 6 train stations for a one-seat ride to Penn Station NYC. Carl - Fri May 9 2008, 14:52

I just calculated the absorption rate in my area, Essex county, NJ. The county rate is 6.3 months. My town of Montclair is 2.6 months. Newark, is 17 months. Other affluent suburbs: West Caldwell is 2.2, Glen Ridge 4.4, Verona 5.0. Importantly though is the ratio of median income to median house prices. Since 1999 the ratio was about 2.5 and in 2007 is 4.5. Prices are higher than incomes by a wide margin. Housing price is more than simple supply and demand. A microcosm is the large city rent control model. How about applying this to the housing market for the middle class? When incomes reach housing prices, a few years from now, things will be back to normal. In the meantime, I am looking for buyers and sellers. Sure it's from a smaller group than it otherwise might be. But housing is as close to a free market as anything in life. It just takes longer to adjust than other commodities.
This thread is great for the thoughtful. To bad more real buyers and sellers arent't involved. How about two of us do a "Hannity and Colmes" - Pro-Con type talk show? - Fri May 9 2008, 10:52

AJ-You don't buy a house to build wealth. It happens to come with it along with a roof over your head. There are more profitable investments, as we know. Most investments don't some with a tax factor if used as an office. Got to work on that rental contract for 3-BRs next to the woods and the short sale purchase for my buyer couple's first house. - Thu May 8 2008, 07:19

AJ- ".....don't see what decling market has to do with buying a house," IF YOU NEED A HOUSE. What are you going to do, go homeless? Rent if you can find equal housing in a declining market. If you can wait and pick the perfect time to buy, then do it. What will you do in the mean time? I hate it that my car is worth less as it ages, too. The point is, what is the alternative? You make it seem that any house purchase in the past 20 years is foolish. Look, you need a roof over your head. What if a house was like a car and it always went down until it was an antique and then went up? I could ride a bicycle but don't want to. I could not buy a house, but don't want to. I think I need a house. You need a pair of shoes, you buy a pair of shoes. PayLess or Allen-Edmonds?
Sometimes I think you might be that kid making the movie selections that Elaine Benis fell for and it turned out you live at home with your mother. You're Very entertaining though. - Thu May 8 2008, 06:41

Ya know, I don't see how the declining market has anything to do with what to do when you need a house.
Mike is baiting everyone with his observations on the declinig market. If you need it, you get it with what you have. What you need may not have anything to do with what you want. The hottest cars are little cars getting good MPG, have you noticed?
Did people buy houses when interest rates were 14% and more? Yes they did.
Will some people buy now and find they could have waited and maybe paid less in a few weeks? Yes.
If interest rates on loans rise, will prices go up? No.
Did the FED help anyone by lowering banks rates to 2%? No, they hurt everyone because it lowered the value of the dollar and now we all pay more for everything.
Will it help to drive less and conserve in other ways? Yes.
Will the sun come up tomorrow? Yes.
Will we be better off with the next administration? Probably not; too complicated.
Life's too short. Enjoy what you have. My beans are starting to sprout and the tomatoes go in next week.
Carl - Wed May 7 2008, 17:18

Stay put if you do not have to move. If you have to want to, then shall you rent or buy? If you can get the what you want, rent. If not, buy. Can't buy? Join the Army. Realtors don't create the market by the way, as you know. I have never seen anyone buy a house they did not want. I have heard of deceitful practices but have never seen it personally. Consumer protection is at an all time high. Attorneys close most transactions.
I would rather blame the unregulated mortgage industry outside the regulated banks for the inflationary bailouts costing all of us countless dollars. And the unregulated part, I blame a so-called conservative, libertarian approach to 'let the free market decide' all matters. Reagan is a saint for spending the USSR into oblivion and a devil for fostering an unregulated US economy. "We don't need the EPA, the Education Dept, more oversight. We need less regulation, less oversight."

Blame realtors for working for a living, paying taxes, being good citizens? We facilitate we don't create themarket. The SUV salesman doesn't get blamed for oil depletion or high fuel prices, does he? We don't even blame the manufacturers for making them. Realtors sell what's available to people who need housing, for people who want to sell housing. Why am I stating the obvious? Never mind. - Wed May 7 2008, 15:17

"Finally, out of curiousity Carl, what link was infected and how was it infected? The nytimes blog? I also clicked on this without problems but I find is highly unlikely that the website of the nytimes is spreading spyware or malware."
I don't really know for sure which link. But I believe it was one that opened on a thread with a UTube link. I don't want to try and find it now. I am really not sure. I doubt it was a NYTimes link. You will notice there is some rancor expressed here so it should not be surprising. But what a bother to clean the hard drive and loose all my files. I learned my lesson. The Dell and Verizon people were great though. Makes you wonder how they can provide this service with the millions of users now. - Wed May 7 2008, 07:03

First, I have just recovered my hard drive after contaminating my computer from links posted here. Be forewarned that this blog, maybe any blog, is risky with viruses.
Second, Richard calls for REALTORS (his caps) to somehow guarantee or mitigate against loss when buying a home. I like the the goal but why Realtors? We are merely bringing buyer and seller together, applying due diligence, making it happen, fulfilling a need. The value of the land is stable but even then can vary depending on uncontrollable events, i.e. natural disasters, political misbehavior, fiscal jeopardy. Improvements on the land (the house) can be assessed to an extent but not 100% always. If the market, ready and willing buyers and sellers, is also effected by confidence and emotion stemming from national and world economic cycles, it doesn't seem fair to look to the lowly realtor to smooth out the risk. Easy for me to say, as a lowly realtor. I would like to propose a bail out by George Bush and Dick Cheney and their friends for ineptitude and malfeasance in turning a surplus into a deficit while pursuing Osama or Sadam or whoever they now blame for their actions.
But you may have a good idea. What would be the basic outline of such an insurance contract on loss of value? - Wed May 7 2008, 06:31

Richard- "I've never seen one that can estimate the cost of moving now versus moving later." How could one know the future? Wouldn't most people make a decision with what they see now? Price = net op income divided by cap rate would help answer a fair rental price based on the purchase price. Today's purchase prices require higher rents. Rents based on old purchase prices are likely to be affordable and profitable. - Thu May 1 2008, 12:41

This may be old news. I find it helpful. A template in Excel by Jim Kimmons. It helps answer the question of price for an investment property based on an acceptable cap rate. Example: Price 269,000 and 6% cap rate, taxes 7000, insurance 900. At this price the rent would have to be at least $2000 month and then would not include the cost of borrowing say 80% of the price and the income from the 20% down if invested elsewhere. House rent would have to be over 2500 which is tops for area.

http://realestate.about.com/od/knowthemath/tp/financial_calcu.htm - Thu May 1 2008, 10:40

After much thought, whether to buy a home, for first time or as a move-up, has not so much to do with "this market" as it does the economy in general. I am not in Chicago but in an area where towns with homes selling slower but at prices alomsot the same as 1-2 -3 years ago. Turnover or absorption is 4-8 months. Some towns are as high as 18 months. But with consumer prices squeezing all of us, now a looming food impact if not shortage due to grain for fuel policies fostered by a failed administration, and no simple encouragement to conserve and sacrifice from leadership, and emerging Chinese and Indian energy consumption that will dwarf anything we know, you have to be wary. We should all be careful of who we take counsel from on RE and everything else. Don't forget, Jim Kramer said no problem with buying Bear Sterns stosk and within a few days it was trading at $2 a share. His advice was removed from his web site as if it never existed. A dramatic example yes, but whistling in the dark may not work for any of us.

As far as slamming realtors is concerned, remember we are just trying to make a living. Do you really think many buyers take action on a house because of something a realtor said? Yes there is a commission involved. Any market is made of a ready and willing buyer and seller. There are clever and intelligent people on both sides. The same is true for buying a car. It is transportation but who needs a $50,000 vehicle over a $20,000 one? And should we lease or buy? Rent or buy? Live in a rental car? It gets kind of blurry after a while. - Wed Apr 30 2008, 18:30

Every Wednesday my office has a meeting. Today we are going to hear about how the FHA has stepped in to replace no-down payment and private mort. insurance (PMI) conventional loans. There also is a gift-grant program that involves the seller gifting the 3% down payment to the buyer but which really becomes part of the loan. Our government at work? Sometimes I think buyers really are victims. There is no end to the creativity used to obtain the money of someone with income.

Yesterday I read an investor advisory to short Visa and Mastercard stock. After cash runs out people will max out their credit cards and not be able to pay even the finance charges, thus income for V and MC will sink. Where are we really headed? - Wed Apr 30 2008, 05:32

Richard, you are absolutely correct about absorption rate. No building going on where I am, virtually. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 14:30

Thinking of the original question, I just looked at a few towns where I work. In Glen Ridge, NJ the median income (2005) in GR is $105,xxx and the median price of sold houses in past 12 months (n=123) was $596,xxx. The previous 12 months, 2006-07 it was $595,xxx, so prices are steady. The absorption rate is 3.0 months (listings divided by sold in last 30 days). This last number indicates property is selling as well as any recent time. The median price of houses compared to median income, even though 2-3 years old, indicates prices are about 20% higher than they should be according to the rule of "don't buy anything more than 3-4 times your income." Since there is no more land to build on, additional housing won't happen. My conclusion- unlike other parts of the country and despite what you may read in the paper (and on blogs) if you find the house that works for you, buy it- in this town. Looking for a bargain? Look at the town nearby where the absorption rate is 23 months, foreclosures abound, median income is 1/2 of median prices.
Ask an agent to calculate the absorption rate in a Chicago area town for an idea of general sales activity. It is considered normal to sell a house in 4-6 months. However, each individual house is its own market. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 13:00

With regard to C-S data excluding condos and co-ops, in actual fact buyers seldom shop for both at the same time. Single family home buyers are not looking at condos at the same time, most of the time.

The exhaustive examination of this housing data is interesting as an academic exercise but is hardly useful when making buying decisions, is it? If you want a 3-4 BR, 2-bath house in a "good" school district with transportation to work nearby, and you find it, will you not make an offer unless you know this highly tuned data? I do admire your intellectual tenacity though. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 11:26

To Chandler's observation about illogical buying decisions, maybe there is an emotional component to buying a house. Most sales pitches by realtors begin with the objectivity aspect, but I have observed for a long time that buyers can barely be held back when they see what they want. Many successful agents say very little when showing houses. Some of the multiple offer frenzy comes from the emotional response of "not loosing this house" competitveness by buyers. When it somes to real estate, objectivity goes only so far as Chandler's example illustrates. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 06:14

Oops, I was responding to Aj and not Richard after all. - Mon Apr 28 2008, 15:30

Richard-
Renting is a financial better alternative except for one thing. There is not the rental inventory where I am, and I doubt in very many places; maybe in Florida where I hear the over building of housing has made "used" houses virtually impossible to sell.

Real estate is not a good investment now, I say again. If you cannot find the suitable rental space, it leaves you with buying a house or my favorite, joining a carnival for the summer season. A long term gig as a camp counselor would also work.

I have no argument on the better investment for return and safety. My 100 shares of Bank of America should come back. My stem cell company - PSTI- should do well.
Carl- - Mon Apr 28 2008, 15:26

Richard, you are vicious, calling me a liar over my opinion.
(paragraph)
So what are you selling? If one needs a house to live in, what alternative do you propose? Don't buy a house, buy an annuity? A hedge fund? Are you nuts?
(paragraph)
There are good, better and best times to buy real estate as an investment, and there are poor times. This is not a time to invest in real estate, but it is certainly as good time a time as any recent tilm to buy a house to live in if you are in an area of high inventory competing for buyers and you expect to live in it for 10-20 years. But investment instead of an interest bearing equity or account- no.

Your writing skills are superb, Richard. I am sure there is something nice about your personality. Or, maybe not. - Mon Apr 28 2008, 14:05

Whoa, Rcihard. i consider you out of line. I did read the thread, I made a typo- (I instead of I'm) which your sharp eyes caught. There are so many off topic responses to the question originally posed, the thread is becoming useless. Yours doesn't help. Use the little thumbs up-down icons to express your agreement with or not. I would love to hear (read) your reasons for not buying now, assuming you need a roof over your head that is. (make sure there are no typos here...ok...submit). If your response has anything that resembles timing the market, I will report you to the Pen Island chamber of commerce and the english teachers society. Fire away, Ridley. - Mon Apr 28 2008, 09:59

I getting confused. People are criticizing the opinions for not giving them what they want. You should buy because you want a house to live in. If you are really asking, can i buy at less than the market value, buy and be sure that i can make money in a short time, buy and interest rates won't go down further, buy and the mortgage market won't become tougher later, then specify your question. Lots of observations about short sales which have nothing to do with the question, should I buy? I show foreclosures every week and have yet to see one that doesn't need major overhaul. Buyers are offering 50% of list price, bottom feeding. Conventional financing by buyers with good income and credit scores to match at rates under 6% on properties priced at no more than 10% below previous 12-24 months levels still happen,m just fewer of them. Most peolple hope to see prices drop further. But if you want and need a house now, buy it. Stop trying to time the market. You would'nt do it for stocks. You'll drive yourself nuts doing it for a home. Make an offer. You could get it. - Mon Apr 28 2008, 08:56

Why buy now? is the question. How about, why not buy now? If you do not need a home, don't buy one. If you do, buy one. It is that simple. In places renting may be cheaper than buying, but you should save the difference for buying later and not spend it on a bigger SUV etc. All this vitriol over Realtors is senseless. We do not make the market. buyers and sellers do. Frankly, if I knew absolutely that my income was secure, that consumer prices may rise but not beyond my ability to buy bread and milk, that the damage done to our economy by the republican philosophy of laisse faire-no controls-market forces will recover if we rid ourselves of this absurd behavior, I would be a buyer right now. We barely do a better job controlling lead paint in toys from China than we do keeping lenders from loosing money and triggering financial collapse. I do beleive our long national nightmare will be over and Bush-Cheney-Limbaugh will disappear, wages and income will increase eventually to meet the market prices of housing, a well controlled economy will return, airlines will be declared the public utility they are, and health care will be available to all. But since I am not likely to live long enough to see all this, I will buy now because I simply want a place of my own. A little place where I can plants some tomatoes in the summer, enjoy a fire in the winter, grill some food with my family on the deck, walk to the park on Saturday. Timing the market is never a good idea; never has been, never will be. - Sun Apr 27 2008, 06:33

As a RE professional, the positives for buying are all stated by others- long term invesments trend upward, don't try to time the market just as you would not do so in the stock market. Recently I came upon a local market truism worth considering. An area- town, county,will have a demographic median income number. This is usually a bit old, say 2005, 2006. It will also have a median housing price. If you can find the appropriate type of housing median, i.e. condo, single family house etc, what is the ratio of median income to median housing price, or better actual sales price? If that price is more than 3-4 times the median income there is a problem. Housing shortage maybe. Inflated prices from past financing options that no longer exist but prices linger as if they did. I am beginning to see the problem as either income must rise to the price levels or prices must decline to the income levels. Of course there will always be the outliers. But I believe it is pretty simple. Experiment: take an income level and multiply by 3-4 and see what properties are available at that price. You tell me. Plenty to choose from? Or almost nothing? Which will happen first- incomes rise to prices or prices decline to incomes? - Fri Apr 25 2008, 17:49

Banks let realtor pay whoever is in the house $500 to leave in cases where someone occupies the house. At least where I am- NJ.
By the way, not all realtors want to play in the foreclosure market as listing brokers. It is not a pretty or fun way to spend your time. Plus it taints them as low level offices unless they are in a completely down trodden market where they have to play. Brokers carve out niches locally making themselves appear dominant with advertising, concentration, agents living in town etc. Even the use of elegant signs versus simple signage contriutes to niche marketing. Others seek out distressed properties only. Still others do both. - Tue Jun 17 2008, 05:36

Cindy,
It could be the bank wants their late payment fees which are negotiable. If so, your 99K offer may not be bad at all. But the owner should level and list what they owe and to whom. These are potential liens and you have a need to know. If you are a qualified buyer- credit score, pre-approved, down payment of 10-20%, you have a good chance. IMO. - Mon Jun 16 2008, 04:38

Short sales are priced at near the market value. Offering 33% less than that would be a waste of time, in my opinion. Why would a seller, not the bank, agree to such an offer? The bank would appraise it and come pretty close to the asking price. Bank would then say to seller, why do you want us to forgive your debt and sell your house for such a low price? If it is listed, a realtor would price it close to value and expected sales price. I believe a lot of people, agents included, think banks are stupid maybe. If the recession turns more serious, maybe the price will slip to your $99,000 based on market value. They all need work. What does this one need? - Fri Jun 13 2008, 18:06

All good answers, but on the price, you should not expect to get it for much less than asking price, if any. The bank will short it, before foreclosing, after they have it appraised. If the owner approves your offer, he forwards it to the bank to begin the 30-60 day process, they appraise it and after who knows what other delays in handling the file, they finally forward it back to the seller who proceeds to closing, assuming the buyer has not found something else and tired of the indefensible waiting. You would think the bank could act sooner but don't expect it. - Fri Jun 13 2008, 14:15

If it is way under asking price, you may never hear, IMO. Banks ask market value and wait for it. Fair offers are responded to in a few days. Banks would not last long if they gave them away. - Sat Jun 14 2008, 09:21

If you like the house, how about this. Get the phone number and name at the bank. The agent should help. after all they want to close too. Call them and tell them how utterly foolish it is from your perspective, for a decision to take so long. Tell them you know they don't want to foreclose and own the house. If you have any omney in the bank, tell them that you and all your friends will withdraw from their bank as soon as possible if the inefficient handling of the offer is not expedited. If the bank looses money and reports pays less taxes or asks the tax payers for relief in any way for their operating losses, you will organize a street protest in front of the bank, with a big sign carrying the person's name in big letters, blaming her/him for loosing the bank's money.
Too harsh? Too confrontational? Is it? - Thu Jun 5 2008, 18:01