Hi Tara,
It almost sounds like you may be a reporter. Yes?
Anyway, most of San Francisco real estate has seen at least a slight decline in value from the peak of the market in 2005. The reality is that we are in turbulent economic times and the liquidity crisis has affected our market....that and other macro-economic factors.
Yet, the good news is that San Francisco real estate has fared VERY well in comparison to almost every other City and County in the Country. Even more good news is that real estate values have fared very well in comparison to the stock market too.
So, even though my own house's value is down from the peak, I can feel better that 1. it is not down as much as if I had purchased in an outerlying part of the Bay Area and 2. it is not down as much as my stock accounts!
Folks who try to time markets should ask themselves what else is their money doing, do I think San Francisco home values will be higher or lower in 10 years, do I like where I currently live, do I think rents will be higher or lower in 10 years, etc etc.
Of course, your question is whether or not there are some homeowners who feel there house has appreciated or stayed the same. The answer to that question is most definitely, yes! Whether or not it is true is a whole other story...
They say residential real estate is "sticky" on the way down, meaning real estate tends to depreciate slowly. This is due, in large part, to the psychology of home values. Some sellers (and often their Realtors) do not wish to see the market's reality.
The best thing we as San Francisco real estate agents and as homeowners (sellers) can do is to treat this market rationally and honestly.
I recently wrote a real estate blog post about what to do in today's market. I'll summarize it here.
http://sfhotlist.com/blog/2008/10/17/california-housing-pric
Real estate is a long-term investment.
Folks who have owned their San Francisco homes for 5+ years have done very well even in today's market.
Folks who have owned for less time should either sit-tight and enjoy their home. Or consider trading up. Trading up in a down market can actually save you money and make you more money in the long-run.
Buying opportunities like we have now in San Francisco come about every 10 or so years. This is a once in a decade opportunity to get that nicer house you always wanted at a relative bargain.
There is no clearance on San Francisco homes. Don't get me wrong. I am not suggesting a buyer go out "bottom-feeding." At least, not in most of San Francisco... Again, our values have held up quite well considering...but there are opportunities to get a good value for your money...and a very good loan.
Real estate in San Francisco has pretty much doubled every 10 years. No, this is not a hard and fast rule but in general, it is a good rule of thumb. For the vast majority, property owners will have more equity and more savings for retirement than renters.
Our market is not wildly appreciating anymore but it is pretty darn healthy. Folks are successfully buying and selling real estate. Qualified buyers are getting good loans. Realistic sellers are selling their properties in short periods of time. Transactions are taking place.
(Side note: I know these are troubling times for many of us. It is scary out there. Many of us are facing financial hardships that will have lasting affects on our nesteggs and even our health and happiness. Please know my intention is never to belittle any of these valid struggles. I, too, want this time of uncertainty to be behind us. Here's to next Wednesday when at least, we'll have a little more clarity...for better or for worse!)
- Wed Oct 29 2008, 13:30