I agree with all the comments here, and the "right" answer depends on the buyer's mentality.
A buyer who wants the theoretical pricing "bottom" will never have the market information to make that call because the bottom is always viewed in the "rear mirror" after its already passed. Focusing just on the quantitative measure of finding a property at the bottom completely discounts the qualitative aspects of a home, and that's a huge mistake because while price is important in Buying a home we all know location, amenities, look and feel play a large role in determining market value as well.
For the buyer waiting for the bottom:
Hold your cash until the end of Q109 and then reassess the direction of the economy. I believe in Q109 we will still be declining and we will flatten in Q209. The resulting reduction in jobs will lead to less demand for purchase housing. Keep an eye on local net positive jobs growth rate (jobs growth rate - unemployment rate). This is THE early predictor for housing recovery in any area. A return to normalcy in the credit markets is secondarily important.
For the "long term" buyer who wants a great deal:
Hold your cash, but be ready to flash it - get out there and start looking! You have to be looking in order to find the long term diamond in the rough and when you do you'll know it because your gut will tell you it's worth getting into the property even if it continues to dip a bit before going back up.
Regarding the definition of long term:
I believe within a 5-8 year timeline one will be in a profit position. The credit markets should be back to normal within the next year to year and a half. Furthermore, historically, since 1968 there has only been one time where California housing had consecutive years of price decline. That would be 1992-1996 (see chart link below). Note that after this period the entire decline had been made up within the following two years (92-96 total decline of 12.2%, 97-98 total increase of 12.5%).
http://docs.Steven-Anthony.com/200XCAAnnualDataChart.pdf
Best Regards,
Steven A. Ornellas, GRI, ABR, e-PRO, CMPS, RE Masters, MBA
REALTOR® / Mortgage Banker-Broker / Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist
Steven Anthony Real Estate & Financial Services
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Cell: 510.461.6011
http://www.Steven-Anthony.com SteveO@Steven-Anthony.com
- Yesterday, 22:01