Matthew Dollinger

V,

Where I agree with Mark below that you have posted to the wrong board, I would recommend that you check out the Intero Real Estate website listed below. It's probably the best I've seen and would more than help to educate you. Then... as Mark said below, I would call an agent out there for assistance. Good Luck! - Tue Jul 29 2008, 06:52

Antonio,

I think that you first of all need to focus on WHERE in downtown Chicago you are looking to buy a condo. I do alot of the market statistics for our company, and recently pulled some stats on the N. Side condo market for Crains. (link provided below) Some neighborhoods continue to move upwards with regards to sales price. This is often effected by school districts, neighborhood features, public transportation, and simply if it's THE place to live. Another thing that you might consider (and I have no benefit if you buy now or wait since i'm not an agent) is that if :
* prices continue to slide in certain areas and your dream condo declines 5%.
* mortgage rates increase half a point

You will pay the same amount for the condo a year from now and not put ANY money towards the equity of your home purchase and spend it on rent instead...

Anyway, I would consult an agent and have them pull the trends (tell them you'd like to see the Agent Metrics Report) for an area with a condo that matches your criteria.

All the best,
Matt - Mon Jul 28 2008, 21:01

Noah,

I would call any references you could come up with at some banks. i have an agent who's client just did this and where it was time consuming, they refi'd him at an unbelievably low rate. I believe that he spoke to the mediation department (at Chase) and they took care of him, but he had his loan originally through Chase. Might suggest that you call your current institution and see if they have a mediation department and if you could speak with them. They don't want your property down the road. good luck! - Mon Jul 28 2008, 20:43

Absolutely Patrick...

If you do a search in "the loop" proper, there are zero Detached (single Family) transactions year after year, and zero come on the market. Attached (which includes condos, "flats", duplex, and townhomes) are not included in the report. Also new construction is not included in the S&P report... so that means that areas of suburbs that are recently built won't be counted either.

There's a great post on Inman that explains the downfall of the S&P Case Schiller Report today entitled, "Put a Gag on Chicken Little". It shows how the S&P index is calculated versus others done by NAR, OFHEO, etc. I have attached that link below.

As I said in my last post, anyone who wants the info that I have quoted, email me and I'd be happy to send over the PDF reports.

Matt Dollinger - Fri May 23 2008, 07:23

Ryan,

Thanks for your insight. Couple of things...

1. Your information on the Lincoln Sq., Roscoe Village, Uptown, Rogers Park, etc... area is incorrect. In your price range, there are 39 detached homes that have closed since the beginning of the year between $585K and $775K. There were also 11 Attached homes that have closed in the same area.
(I ran a similar search on Trulia for DE homes and found just about the same number... a little higher). To go back to the local aspect though, you have to understand that the areas you are comparing are incredibly different due to inventory, school districts, and more. If you take a look at our report we have taken a number of these concerns and talked about them.

2. I still don't understand how if half of the transactions in Chicago aren't counted, how the Case Schiller report is accurate. In fact the editor of Inman News and many metropolitan area associations won't embrace this report. In fact... your numbers regarding the condo decrease in activity are dead wrong.

2006 - MLS all attached sales 104,160
2007 - MLS all attached sales 86,128
That's a decrease of 17.4%

2006 - Chicago all attached sales 46,126
2007 - Chicago all attached sales 41,502
That's a decrease of 10%

Lastly, with regards to the foreclosure rates, here is what I just found off of your RealtyTrac.com website.

Metro Area % of households in foreclosure in Q1 1 foreclosure for every #households
1. Indianapolis 1.45 69
2. Atlanta 1.42 70
3. Dallas 1.01 99
4. Memphis, Tenn. 0.99 101
5. Denver 0.95 105
6. Detroit 0.83 120
7. Jacksonville, Fla. 0.75 133
8. San Antonio 0.75 133
9. Canton, Ohio 0.72 140
10. Las Vegas 0.71 140

Ryan, if you truly are looking to move to Chicago and would like to do the research yourself, i would suggest a couple of things. First, register on any of the major player websites and have them email you listings of closed transactions. Our MLS has amazing capabilities to inform you of price changes, closed, etc.

Second, if you're interested in TRUE local, neighborhood numbers over the past couple of years, take a look at the market report that my IT staff and I have put together. I have enclosed the link below to the report. This is all 100% factual data pulled straight from the MLS. It has not been manipulated in any way.

Another site that you might want to check out that have excellent research.
http://www.altosresearch.com - You can subscribe to their weekly update of information that is some of the best around. You do have to request for particular zip codes, and attached housing.

As a numbers nerd I completely applaud your research on these topics. We have found that in an area like Chicago, however, with sub neighborhoods within neighborhoods, (within Lakeview alone we saw the price of single family homes increase by $200K in a 2x6 square block area because of schools and other factors like that), we need to look at this market block by block and house by house.

If you would like copies of the PDF's that I have referred to in this, please email me and I will send them to you... or for any other area that you and your wife might be considering.

BTW... I'm not a Realtor... so I'm not interested in you as a client. Only sharing the information that i have at my disposal.

Matt - Thu May 22 2008, 21:59

Dann,

Unfortunately, the media, as talked about in numerous posts here, thrives on negative press.

However, I don't necessarily feel that this is the ONLY reason for the confusion in numbers. Another, altogether human aspect has to do with pure laziness of transforming DATA into Information, or simply accepting patial data and going with that. Allow me to explain:

"Data are plain facts. The word "data" is plural for "datum." When data are processed, organized, structured or presented in a given context so as to make them useful, they are called Information.

It is not enough to have data (such as statistics on the economy). Data themselves are fairly useless. But when these data are interpreted and processed to determine its true meaning, they becomes useful and can be called Information. "

1. Take a look at this report form Standard and Poors Case Schiller Report (unfortunately accpeted as one of the top reports with regards to housing) and noted in a recent Inman Blog entitled "Case-Shiller: Home prices drop in 19 of 20 metros"


Where there data states that prices have declined in 19 of 20 metro areas, when we take a little further look at HOW they calculate the DATA into INFORMATION we see in their FAQ:


"To be eligible to be included in the indices, a house must be a single-family
dwelling. Condominiums and co-ops are specifically excluded. Houses included
in the indices must also have two or more recorded arms-length sale
transactions. As a result, new construction is excluded."

Hmm... so what they're saying is that their "report" is based upon ONLY Single Family Homes that have sold (or transfered ownership) at least 2 times... No new construction, no condos, no rehabs... none of the things that make up a HUGE amount of the transactions in our city of Chicago... or New York... or Miami... or Boston... etc.

Also, to quote one of my company's owners in a recent television interview on NBC 5:

"National reports of real estate data, or city-wide reports are as logical as taking the temperature of the entire country in January. Chicago would be Zero and Naples would be 70... so the temperature of the country must be 50 degrees... although it sure doesn't feel like that when you walk out the door."

National or City-wide reports don't take into account any of the emotional desire to live in a particular community, and most don't take into account certain amenities such as beds, baths, single family, condo or price point. So... in essence... they're comparing the $2 million new construction with the $500,000 tear down in the same survey.

The reason I'm pretty passionate about this is due to the fact that I oversaw the construction of our company's first Chicago Neighborhood Market Report (the @Report ). This is a searchable report of 21 Chicago neighborhoods here in Chicago that allow consumers and agents alike to read not only an overview of their neighborhood, but drill down into information based on their particular home. This is its first release and will shortly be updated with 1Q08 information, as well as incorporating charting functions and other Web 2.0 attributes.

Sorry for the long post, but I would recommend taking the time to really research what you read before formulating any opinions as well as continuing to post to areas like this that shotty research and vanilla overviews are unacceptable and doing a great dis-service.

Matt Dollinger

- Email me for links to the various sources used in this post or vist my blog - Fri May 16 2008, 08:29

Thanks for your answers... it was kind of question just to see how much faith was put in this incomplete data. To give you a little insight into what this report is omitting.

2007 Recorded Closed Data for all of MLSNI (attached, detached, resale and New construction)
* Data pulled Directly from MRED formerly MLSNI*

198,106 transactions
$63,000,000,000 in volume

Single Family Resales Recorded

104,404 Transcations (52% of all MLSNI Volume in 2007)
$34,000,000,000 in Volume (53% of all MLSNI Volume in 2007)

Condos, Townhomes, and New Construction in 2007

93,702 Transaction Sides (47% of all MLSNI Volume for 2007)
$29,000,000,000 in (46% of all MLSNI Volume for 2007)

So... with HALF of the overall MRED (formerly MLSNI) volume not being counted (and we have not included the fact that a resale property has to have been sold or transferred AT LEAST 2 TIMES TO ACTUALLY BE COUNTED, does this report still hold any weight for an area like the Chicagoland Market... or ANY MAJOR METROPOLITAN MARKET?

Me thinks not... do your own research.

See the link below for the actual FAQ from the S&P website as to what they include in their data (I have chosen not to use the term information...) - Fri May 16 2008, 10:27