Ox, I'm torn between spending my time to answer your questions and proving my point that the market in Hampton Roads is not as bad as you think. Do you really think homes that were WORTH $400K a few years ago are now selling for $300K - that is absolutley rediculous. And why would the bigger houses all of a sudden be for sale, but not the smaller homes? I specifically chose the two areas that I did because most of the homes in South York County are similar and most of the homes in South Newport News are similar. OK, So you want more specific
zip code 23693 - resale detached homes built after 1995 between 2300-2700 sf 4 bedroom 2 bath
year list price sales price #of homes
2003 255,162 255,243 21
2004 293,525 293,513 16
2005 344,718 344,700 19
2006 375,148 374,196 25
2007 389,422 384,452 27
Still going up - and there are more sold in 2007 - and the year isn't even over yet. (this may be different in a different zip code)
As for current homes on the market price reductions - there are five homes that have been on the market over 30 days that match the same search criteria. Only one has reduced their price to slightly below the average sales price from $405,000 (hmm....that seems to be about $20K high) to $379,900 - maybe if he had priced it right to begin with it would have sold at the average in a timely manner. Let's see, there is another one that bought in '05 for $429 and wants to sell it in '07 for $535,000 hmmm.....overpriced you think? maybe this one you can take a bigger reduction on b/c it is over priced by so much. (See every home is different - if I was a buyer's agent in this situation, I wouldn't let you offer anywhere close to $535 - this home would be a case of the 20% you asked about in your first post - but are you really getting a deal, or are you buying it at market value?) So the question is - is the seller losing $100K when he does eventually lower the price or did he never have the $100K to lose?
That's all from me. I hope your buyers agent charges you a retainer fee :)
Rosalind - Fri Oct 5 2007, 07:22
Ox,
You are right, agents livelihood are at stake, which means most of the not so serious agents are getting out of the business. I would disagree with the grocery store clerk that it is a good time to flip houses. If you are looking at your purchase as an investment and not putting a roof over your head, you will want to be able to hold on to it for a few years anyway. Maybe purchase - rent it out to all these folks afraid to buy and then sell it later. Even with smaller appreciation precentages the advantages of homeownership far outway thowing your hard earned dollars on rent - never to be seen again.
As far as the NAR putting a positive swing on the real estate market, they keep repeating that real estate is local. Yes - in some areas of the country average sales prices have gone down i.e. florida. Maybe some local numbers will show you that it isn't as bad here as the rest of the country and the national news want you to think.
I am an agent on the peninsula, so here are some numbers for the peninsula - two different areas - two completely different price ranges and types of buyers.
South York County
jan-oct 2003 avg price $237,728 Days on market 30 total sold 554
jan-oct 2004 avg price $270,736 DOM 29 total sold 510
jan-oct 2005 avg price $325,000 DOM 33 total sold 594
jan-oct 2006 avg price $340,314 DOM 48 total sold 531
jan-oct 2007 avg price $374,823 DOM 80 total sold 521
South Newport News
jan-oct 2003 avg price $67,235 Days on market 73 total sold 230
jan-oct 2004 avg price $73,867 DOM 76 total sold 269
jan-oct 2005 avg price $106,955 DOM 56 total sold 303
jan-oct 2006 avg price $119,553 DOM 56 total sold 336
jan-oct 2007 avg price $136,367 DOM 77 total sold 227
As you can see the average sales price has gone UP in both areas. Yes days on the market is longer - that means you, the buyer, has a choice of homes (you don't have to settle for a house that is just "OK" and you don't have to write a contract on the hood of your agents car). The drop in volume for this year in south newport news can most likely be contributed to many of the subprime lenders going belly up this year, so fewer buyers are qualified. But number of homes sold it is still very close to 2003 when the boom was starting.
Interest rates are still at historical lows and in Hampton Roads homes are keeping there value and appreciating. Why not buy?
Your agent should be able to show you the same type numbers for the area in virginia beach you are interested in - maybe values are going down there - but your agent is an expert in the field and should be able to tell you. If you don't have a buyer's agent, you should get one. If you don't want to talk to one at this point, let me know what area of virginia beach you are looking at, and I can pull up the same numbers for that area.
Rosalind - Thu Oct 4 2007, 11:16
Every house is different. Your buyer's agent should do a market analysis of the home you want to make an offer on and recommend a price.
Although days on the market have increased in the last few years, home prices in the Hampton Roads area are standing their ground. In some areas they actually increased slightly. We also don't have as many foreclosures as the rest of the country. The national news paints a picture of gloom and doom in the real estate market, but remember the real estate market is regional - it's not as bad as it seems. - Thu Oct 4 2007, 08:07