(Part Two)
From an investment standpoint, Spend Less, Buy Smart! If you were to buy a condo around 200-225k or a detached house in salt lake county around 275-300k you would be less exposed to conditions outside of your control. I think the SL Co. condo might be the safest investment over all. If you were to purchase a condo this summer or fall in the lower price range you could either use a reduced term mortgage like a 15 year fixed mortgage to reduce your total interest paid over the next five years or so & improve your equity position when it is time to sell or have lower cash flow for housing and save or invest elsewhere. Also there is safety in numbers, when you are ready to sell the SL Co. condo there will be a much larger buyer pool to market your home to. Conversely the PC condo market has fewer interested buyers at their premium price point, and you can see in the numbers above PC condos will probably fall at a faster rate than SL Co. So as the economy tightens & corrects you could have a great SL Co. condo, pay less in fuel and other consumables, have a property appealing to the masses. And limit your exposure to falling values in over inflated markets or neighbor hoods. Not to mention the drag the nagging commute will inevitably put on you, your time, and in the end your lifestyle.
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If you would like the above pricing reports in excel format, or need further information & assistance navigating the intricacies of buying and selling real estate call me any time!
I am a very tech savvy Realtor®; if you prefer to correspond via text or chat to discuss these scenarios in greater detail please contact me directly by email to coordinate an online meeting via msn messenger or program of your choice. Otherwise send any questions to me by email: kristopher.furrow@realestate.com
Thank you for visiting Trulia.com, I hope my response is helpful. Good Luck! -Kris
Kristopher Furrow – Realtor® RealEstate.com Realtors® 801.916.0815
Realtor - Utah license # 5489913-SA00
Loan Officer - Utah license # 5489913-MLAF - Fri Jun 27 2008, 08:25
Hello Aaron,
Congrats on the engagement! That is a very exciting thing.
Well, I will address the investment portion of your question. While PC has a lot to offer to your lifestyle, you said it yourself “you are busy professionals". You probably have been or will be impacted by the soaring gas prices, and other parts of the economy. Your work obligations will probably increase as the economy runs through this correction cycle as well. That should be a serious consideration as you merge your finances and make longer term plans for your family.
I will say something you probably would not expect from a Realtor, SPEND LESS! Here are a few stats from the MLS… (Hopefully this displays well on trulia)
Salt Lake Co.
2005, # Condos Sold, 1435, % change (start) Avg. Sales Price, $149,824
2006, # Condos Sold, 1614, % change +12.47% Avg. Sales Price, $155,948, % change +4.09%
2007, # Condos Sold, 1495, % change -07.30% Avg. Sales Price, $193,171, % change +23.87%
’08 YTD# CondosSold, 967, % change NA Avg. Sales Price, $192,204, % change -00.50%
Summit Co.
2005, # Condos Sold, 345, % change (start) Avg. Sales Price, $269,822
2006, # Condos Sold, 204, % change -40.00% Avg. Sales Price, $393,630, % change +45.89%
2007, # Condos Sold, 217, % change +06.37% Avg. Sales Price, $466,521, % change +18.52%
’08 YTD# CondosSold, 108, % change NA Avg. Sales Price, $373,681, % change -19.90%
It sounds like together you are definitely in the buy/sell cycle & not sidelined first time home buyers. I think this is a good opportunity to tell you what we here at RealEstate.com and Lendingtree.com have been talking about & will likely see over the next few years in our local real estate and mortgage rate markets.
As you probably know the Fed Reserve met this week and DID NOT raise the funds rate or the prime rate, but they used specific language of their concerns for inflation, a blatant hint in the fed’s game that rate hikes are coming in the not so distant future. Historically we know that although the funds rate and the prime rate do not directly correlate to mortgage rates historical when these rates rise, mortgage rates follow. Moreover, in the last 6-9 months we have seen a volatile mortgage rates market with a sizable-overall uptick in rates in the face of the fed drastically dropping the funds & prime rates which was expected to stabilize the markets. As the fed raises rates in the next little while, so will go mortgage and other credit rates. Today we are seeing 6.125 - 6.625 rates for great credit, low risk borrowers on 30 year fixed mortgage loans. Recent history shows us that over the last 30 years these mortgage rates have been on average over 7.5% and the less than 6% rates we have had are a phenomenon of the 2000’s. It is obvious that home prices are falling in certain market segments (in SL Co. homes over 350k) or areas (areas with highest gains have the furthest to fall) AZ, NV, FL, & CA. The truth is we are heading into territory where the average home buyer is not calculating the risks the mortgage side presents to their purchase, or sees the real opportunities in today’s market. If mortgage rates jump 1.5% over the next year or two it would require the home prices to fall around 30% just to even out the cost differential. We know that Utah, more specifically Salt Lake County has not experienced the same level of highs as surrounding markets like Vegas or Phoenix and we should not expect equal price reductions. Knowing that the mortgage rates are essentially the same nationally but the housing markets are local, our market is poised for generally rising housing costs, IE: if our market falls by 10% but 30yr fixed rates rise to 7.5% our homes will be about 20% more expensive than they are today.
I say all that to say this…
(See Part Two) - Fri Jun 27 2008, 08:23