Ed Burnham

Hi Megan-

Snow events here are more "one off" than "frequent thing". And I love the way Portland reacts to snow. In many ways, it reminds me of the south. It's such an unlikely event that—sometimes even at the hint of snow—everyone seems to take the day off. Businesses close early, schools cancel classes, meetings are postponed. Some people head to the stores and stock up: DVDs disappear from the shelves, as does milk and toilet paper.

Many of the posts comment on our dark winters. Yes, our days are short. It's a function of our latitude. We're just a little south of Duluth, Minnesota in latitude. A charming aspect of our long winter nights, though, is that many Portlanders keep their outdoor holiday lights up and lit far past the holiday season. I love seeing that, especially in some of our older, close-in neighborhoods.

We don’t get real icicles often, but you’ll see icicle lights year round.

We also have a lot of indoor amenities. Our symphony, ballet and art museum, for example, are world class. Cultural amenities are far more numerous and varied than you might expect to find in a city of our size. And the number of bookstores, coffee shops, good restaurants, movie theaters, expressed per capita, are at the top of the charts.

Many of the posts also comment on the wet winters. It does rain here. I like the comparison to Ireland. And the Irish phrase for a light drizzle, “The day has gone soft.” We have soft winters here.

So soft that we get fresh, local, organic vegetables at a few farmers’ markets that stay open year round. So soft that I can go most of the winter with a sweater and a light windbreaker and—forgive me, Portlanders!—an umbrella.

True, Portland winters aren’t for everyone. Even those of us who have learned to appreciate our winters will—usually about mid-January—start to crave a visit to some place where the sun can actually be seen. Fortunately, those places are relatively close by as the plane flies.

What trumps it all—for me and for many of us here—is that Portland offers so much in livability that we would put up with far worse winters to live here. Best of all, as clients from San Francisco have told me, one can actually afford to buy a home here!

Best wishes!

ED - Wed Aug 6 2008, 22:40

Good question. Your theory that a few higher-priced homes may be throwing the curve is a good one. There may also be some over-priced homes that aren’t selling that keep that list price average high. Another thought is that the upper end of the market may simply be slower.

The statistic you cite is just one of many statistics out there. In my opinion, a more useful statistic is the list price vs. sold price average. This statistic tells you how close to the list price a home actually sold for, on average, for specific areas. Unsold homes—sometimes over-price unsold homes—are not included in this statistic.

Your agent can provide you this and can also give the same information for individual homes that sold in the area where you’re considering buying a home.

I have a page on my website that gives offers a few sample statistics for some different areas, Zip codes and price ranges. You’re welcome to check out this page: http://edburnham.mywindermere.com/index.cfm?fuseAction=conte…

Statistics and averages are useful information for the larger picture, but real estate values are really very local. The difficulty with statistics is that as you zoom in, the sample size gets smaller and the margin of error increases. While you should keep the big picture in mind, what is most important to you is whether the home you’re considering is fairly priced for where it is and what a good offering price might be.

Your agent is the best source for the kind of focused, local and very specific information you need to decide this.

Your agent can provide a market analysis for a home you’re considering. Just as important, your agent provides you with an experienced and often intuitive view of the very local market where the home is located. That’s what you really need to write an offer that has a chance of getting serious consideration by the seller.

And, once a seller is willing to consider your offer, you have a chance of moving from offer-writer to home owner, which is really the point of writing offers, isn’t it?

Best of luck in your home search!

ED - Sat Aug 2 2008, 23:49

Hi Rick-

I'm not a lawyer, so I can't give you a legal opinion, and Tom's right: the first person you should be talking to is your agent.

My advice to my sellers: If the three most important things in real estate value are location, location, location, the three most important things in a real estate transaction are disclose, disclose, disclose.

That, in my opinion, puts the ball of responsibility squarely back in the buyer's court. Let the buyer-- this buyer or future buyers-- and the buyer's home inspector-- investigate the items cited and decide for themselves what's true, misleading or wrong in that report.

Home inspections reports are a tough time for both buyer and seller. Hope you and your agent have by now resolved any inspection issues with this buyer and the transaction is moving ahead.

Best wishes!

ED - Mon Jul 21 2008, 18:40

Hi Squeezed---

There’s an oft-quoted saying: “There are lies, there are d*** lies and then there are statistics.” (For some background on that quote, check out this link: http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm )

The 9% decline figure is elusive to me. However, whatever the figure and source, home prices in the Portland area, according to the highly regarded S&P/Case-Schiller Report, showed a 4.7% decline April-to-April: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_R…

But, here’s the rub: that report covers a 7-county metropolitan statistical area. Using those statistics alone to make a real estate decision would be like planning a winter hike on Mt Hood based on the 7-county average temperature for that day.

Tom Inglesby quoted some good RMLS figures in a previous post that show a stronger market than the Case/Schiller report. He also made some good points on the strength of the close-in market and the cost effect of rising interest rates.

However, your question is more about market timing and the future. And predicting the short-term future in real estate is as difficult as predicting Portland’s weather.

Short answer: it’s always the right time to buy the right house. But…what’s the right house?

In my opinion, if you want to increase downside protection, buy quality of location. This means buying a home in an area where inventory levels are low and values have held up. Within those areas, look for homes in a price range where inventory levels are also low. Some areas of close-in Eastside Portland match these criteria pretty well.

A good agent’s help is invaluable, especially in this market. They know the strong pocket markets in the area. And they should be able to provide you with market date similar to this: http://www.trendgraphix.com:80/ORE/charts/721272137214721572… (If you’re into market statistics, check out this page on my website: http://edburnham.mywindermere.com/index.cfm?fuseAction=conte… )


Most important, your agent’s familiarity with the area will help you sort the wheat from the chaff in the listings. They will also provide you the data on comparable homes and the market knowledge you need to determine a good offering price.

Finally, the best general advice I ever got: Take the long-term view. Don’t try to time the market. If the deal seems too good to be true, it is.

Get a good mortgage lender, a good agent and get started!

Happy home hunting!

ED

Ed Burnham, Real Estate Broker
Windermere/Cronin & Caplin Realty Group, Inc
825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 120
Portland, OR 97232
(O) 503/284-7755
(VM/Direct) 503/497-5209
(Cell) 503/314-3555
(Fax) 503/220-1498
Visit my website: www.edburnhamhomes.com - Mon Jun 30 2008, 10:03

Hi Vk-

I suggest a little research before you buy.

You mentioned that a lot of homes in the neighborhood are built along the road. Your agent can pull sale prices on the ones that have sold recently. With that information for those homes, you'll find out if this home's price compensates for its location.

Along with the sale price, the agent can pull listing history. That may give you some idea of how difficult it may have been to sell those homes. I suggest looking at days-on-market and number of price reductions.

As for resale, I know that when I work with buyers, they'll give me a list of what they want in a home. It usually concludes with, "... and not on a busy street."

In a hot market with low inventory, buyers have little home inventory to choose from, so they may be more likely to accept compromises in a home, such as proximity to a road.

But in markets like our current market, there are a lot of choices out there in most neighborhoods. Buyers are less willing to accept compromises.

Here’s one final thought to consider: Portland is a growing area. Chances are, five years from now, that road will be more, not less busy.

Hope this is helpful!

ED

Ed Burnham, Real Estate Broker
Windermere/Cronin & Caplin Realty Group, Inc
825 NE Multnomah Street, Suite 120
Portland, OR 97232
(O) 503/284-7755
(VM/Direct) 503/497-5209
(Cell) 503/314-3555
(Fax) 503/220-1498
Visit my website: http//www.edburnhamhomes.com - Sat Jun 28 2008, 20:36