Dann

as I mentioned yesterday, there was an article in Wall Street journal that says we are now at the bottom.
Please comment - Thu May 8 2008, 06:19

Wall Street Journal Today-- bottom of real eastate market Happened in April 2008. - Wed May 7 2008, 18:36

Good By and good luck to you. I am sorry that sometimes I have typos. - Thu May 1 2008, 11:36

Aj- I am not a realtor- I am a buyer and seller of real estate. I do that for a reason.

I am sorry I am fragmented and my logic is shaky but in answer to your question-- whay does it make sense to ignore foreclosures when trying to figure out the real value of a house- I went to do it but said to myself"' It doesnt matter what I say, aj and Richard will just bash it.

I am trying to avoid this thread bec it is taking up too much of my time. I have to go to work. - Thu May 1 2008, 11:04

I agreew with you, but tghye will bash you bec you are an agent. Agent or not the logic is still sound.

Additionally, they will get tax break you did not mention. If pricipal and tax are say 1000 a month inn interest and anpother 300 for taxes, depending on thier marginal tax rate they should be able to get cash back in effect from gov of about 260 a month meaning the own for 1,049 per month.

One guy said why would I want to out a 30 year mtg on a declining asseet. If his house declined for 2 years and then when up for 28 - that is not a declining asset. - Thu May 1 2008, 08:57

caralyn, You said those with not great credit and no secondary market wont be able to buy a hiouse. Isnt that what fha is trying to fix? - Wed Apr 30 2008, 07:50

I am addreesing two issues that have recently come up. :
1. I mentioned that according to the information that Trulia gathers, Home prices in Chicago have gone up. 9 see thier grapgh and stats)Their source is information recorded in the recorders office which will include ALL sales/ the good, bad and ugly
I was asked- what graph- what statistics- if you are interested go to truilia chicago. market trends and stats. Look at average price or median sales price or ave sq foot price- you will see that in Chicago- not the chicago region- the sales price is trending upwards.

2. - I will continue two later as it is time to go to bed. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 23:10

aj,, The reason I like the fed oversite records more than case schiller is because the former does not include subprime mortgages in their statistics.

When I buy I want to know what it might sell for. I will be selling to someone with a conventional mtg. as Subprime is a thing of the past . - Tue Apr 29 2008, 16:19

carl. Now that was informative. To tell you the truth I never did know how to calculate absorbtion rate.

Thanks - Tue Apr 29 2008, 14:58

tHERE ARE 3 SOURCES OF DATA CONCERNING cHICAGO AND CHICAGO AREA PRICES- cASE SCHILLERS HAS THE MOST OUTDATED DATA, ONLY GOING TO fEB. tHE FED OVERSIGHT REPORT OUT YESTAERDAY SHOWED A MODEST INCREASE IN recent PRICING IN CHICAGO AREA. The specific data compiled by this site -truilia- shows Chicago- not chicago region - UP 5%.thru April 23rd! It shows in the graph that since feb- the date Schillers report stopped collecting, the pricing has gone UP!

The last two have more current info and shows a positive trend. Why are you guys so gleeful about a report that does not have current data and covers an area as big as Rhode island but is not specific to chicago when the question is WHAT are the prices In CHICAGO and what are the NOW?

Please answer the question I asked rather than saying I am biased bec I am a home seller and general bashing comments that do not address WHY you are gleeful over an outdated and irrelevantly general report.

The only answer I can think of is because you want to WIN this discussion rather than to learn something from this discussion. Your vested interest is to prove to us that you are smarter than we are and to do that you ignore- not an uncommon tactic I might add, anything that is against your position.

I guess in your minds you have won, but unfortunately, you have lost the chance to become educated.

You value winning over becoming educated. That is a dangerous trait for you to have going forward. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 09:30

I agree that house proces have fallen. It has happened to the houses I own. I never said otherwise. All i am saying is caseshiller is 2 months behind and is not specific to a specific neighborhood- Both of those statements are true.
Also, just bec the relator I mentioned sold 13 houses doenst men that he sold them at such a price that it proves prices are going up.

All I am saying is that Chicago -the city of chicago- didnt fall as much as the metro region and that SOME parts of the cuty are holding stable.

That is my one and only point.

lastly.. I might be insistent but I dont see why I am any more insistent than You. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 07:26

Ryan, This still doesnt answer YOUR question. It is now May and these figures covers up thru February. Also, it is not specific to Chicaago just the huge metro area.-- I use the wording- huge metro area bec that is the wording the rep form the company who compiles the information just used with me 5 minues ago. As he said- getting info for a HUGE area like this wouldnt be much help for a specific home buyer.

If you want specific zip code info you call Fiserv at 1-877-279-2272. For $3500.00 he said he could give you specifc information on the neighborhood that you might be looking in, but as he even said- that wont tell you anything regarding concerning the pricing when your friend wants to buy. All it will tell him is what the price was previously. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 07:12

I was emailing a realtor I know and asked him if this market is picking up. He saidd the week the weather got better around Chicago he sold 13 homes-- that is a lot!

Two of my daughters friends put their condos up for sale in Chicago - One sold in 5 days and the other sold in 2 weeks.

A family I know on my block tried to sell thier750,000 house last year but ended up taking off the the market. They put it back on about 2 months ago and it went under contract about a week ago.



Dann - Tue Apr 29 2008, 06:02

Richard,

Can you tell us what is the source of your hostility?

Dann - Mon Apr 28 2008, 21:40

Richard,

Why do you get your panties in such a bunch? You have a lot of hate in you, Sir. I suggest talking to somebody about your hostility.-- I know I know- this doesnt answer the original post and I have to admit I havent read the 289 post s( or however many). Probably my grammer aint that good either. However, I know a hostile person when I read his hostile responses.

Relax, Man. You are going to have a heart attck. - Mon Apr 28 2008, 09:54

thanks, Ken. Another good graph is the one done by trulis which is specif for chicago but I dont know how to include it in my email other than to referenc- trulia- chicago market trnds and statstics.

Dann - Mon Apr 28 2008, 06:59

I am not being incrdibly dishonest. I dont even remeber how I got on this site. Tell me how to change my account to realty pro and if it is appropriate I will do if it makes you happy. - Sun Apr 27 2008, 12:10

Concerning the FHA opportunity- Yes, i think it is great. Obviously there will be no more sub prime but as I understand it FHA is being ramped up to fill the shoes of Subprime. Fha will even qualify someone for a loan down to the low 500s which is as low or lower than subprimes. Additioanlly, with seller gift programs, a buyer will still be able to get into a house with zero down. - Sun Apr 27 2008, 07:45

All I am saying is that some areas are stabe and some are not. I buy in a certain area. Last quarter lets say there were 30 foreclosures in the neighborhood out of 60 sales. If 30 sales were at the normal price- lets say 100,000 and 30 were foreclosure with bank just wanting to get rid of them - priced at say 20,000- The media would report it as follows-- Prices have plummeted in such and such a region. Last year the ave house sold for 100,000- this year? 60,000!! My God Every body run for cover.

It would be like a bowling league statistc where last year your team bowled an ave of 160 but this year 1/2 of your team bowled 40 bec these two bowled with broken hands. End of year news? -- toms team average plummets to 100!!! Unbelievable. There is a movement afoot to kick them out of our leage as not being worthy.


Woulndt you agree that the article is a tad misleading?


If case schiller took out foreclosures and broke the statistic down to neighborhoods specific to chicago then we would all know for sure- what has happened - but only up to the time that he gathered the statistics which was 2 or 3 months ago.

Truiklia has a grah and specifics about pricing for chicago. It shows a positive trend. I have been the only one that sites that grapgh? Why- bec those of you that are negative dont want to look at the graph

Again- all I am saying is that I think prices in chic have gone down but for last 3 months they seem to have stabilized - Sun Apr 27 2008, 07:14

why do people Like Richard twist the words of realtors and why do so many of you get angry when someone disagrees with you.
Being a prudent house buyer is good-- automatically- because of your bias -disagreeing with sound advice and opinion is not so good.

Everyone on this thread refused to believ anyone positive. You werent looking for advice, rather you defended your position as if in a court room if someone disagreed with you.What you were looking for was someone to agree with you.

Not one time did the negatives admit that the low numbers perhaps are artificially low bec they are including foreclosures in their numbers. Nor did one of the negatives admit that case schill
er goes about the study in the right way, but case schiller is reporting on a region and not specifically on a neighborhood and not specifically just on Chicago.

I know-- I know-- someone will bash my comment along the lines-- this is redundant, blah, blah blah. - Sun Apr 27 2008, 06:45

Ryan, I couldnt care less if you buy in Chicago or not. The question is not who to believe- the qustion is what is actually happening. i believe they have stabilized in some neighborhoods and you dont.

I am not trying to win an argument. I personally believe based upon talking to appraisers and what I see myself that they have stabilized. If they go down then I am wrong. if they stabilize then I am right.
My opinion isnt worth much but then again you asked for it and I thought I would try to be helpful.

Good luck to you whatever you decide. - Sat Apr 26 2008, 17:39

This is in response to the reference to the blog- the pers0n makes the point that perhaps why condos are up 8% is only because the numbers were skewed towrds higher condos- yes, I agree that might be. However, the numbers which show lower averages might be bec the numbers are skewed towrds less expensive pricing- such as in foreclosures. I dont think its fair to say the average price is down such and such when in those numbers there is a high amount of foreclosures thrown into the mix.

I agree that the way schiller goes about it is more accurate but i would want to see him take out the foreclosures and give me specific information about Chicago and more relevantly, the neighborhood I am buying in.

I have purchased over 100 investment properties in Chicago and some of the neighborhoods have gone down but every appriaser i ahve talked to specific to MY specific neighborhoods say- yes, the price went down but it appears to be holding steady now and in their opinion the price will stay stable for as far as they can predict.

Having said all this I am sure one or two of you will say I am biased because this is what i do for a living.

Well, I sure dont want to base my future on all those out there that arent bias because they have done absolutely nothing concerning buying and selling other than opining about stuff you know little or nothing about.

i dont think having zero experience gets you ready to give a knowlegeable opinion.

I guess what we should all do when we want to get an opinion from someone that we will base our future on is to make sure the person has absolutely no experience--- very wise! - Sat Apr 26 2008, 14:56

Chicago - not chicago area- was up march to march 5% for sfh and 8% for condos- see trib artile April 23- i could fax it to you is give me your fax no.

case schiller does and will only report on chicago region- you need something much more specific/

To the guy that said int rates wont go up any time soon- they trend upwards along with inflation bec mtg rates are tied to baond rates and trends - Sat Apr 26 2008, 10:23

Please look at the trend graph of truilia for Chicago. Prices are going up. Also, last week, trib article said the same thing.
Also, every neighbor hood is different. Lets assume the neighborhood is declining. Lets assume you have a crysatl ball and it tells you the houses in the neighborhood you are looking at will go down 5%. Ok- lets assume you are looking at a 300,000 house and your appraiser says-- yes.,this is what this house is worth- 300,000 right this second and my crystal ball says it will only be worth 285 in one year. If the seller is willing to drop the price 15,000-- well, then arent you ok?

Further, lets assume you buy at the 300,000 price and it does go down 5%. Unless you sell when it is at 285,000 you havenet lost anything- just dont sell and wait for it to go up . Furthermore please dont forget to factor in how much you will have in your pocket from tax savings. Assume 20,000 a year in interest and 4,000 in taxes and assume a 20% marginal tax bracket- that translats to a savings of 8,000. That savings is a cash savings, meaning that is actual money in your pocket whereas your "loss" hasnt really happened yet.


All the above aside however, why does not ANYONE look at the graph of the prices in CHICAGO on this very web site- It shows prices for chi going up!!

Lets not compare Chicago to Joliet or Aurora or bellwood or etc. Lets compare chicago to Chicago. - Fri Apr 25 2008, 15:57

The chi tribune in todays paper just reported that in Chicago the total sales were off 11.5 % BUT nevertheless the home prices rose 5.3 % from Last Marh 2007.(thats on SFH) Up 8% for condos!!!!


Look at the trend graph on chicago on truilias web site-- overall evrything in Chicago has been trending upwards. There was a spike in 2006 but it is trnding back up

Can you imagine how much upward pressure there would be on home prices if we had the normal amount of buyers looking? If up over 5% when down 10% in number of lookers it seems like it will spike quite a bit when buyers come back at 100% - Wed Apr 23 2008, 09:20

aS THE PREVIOUS ANSWER INDICATED, ASK FOR A ZONING CERT. i AM A REHABBER AND AM BUYING A 3 FLAT RIGHT NOW. I made the contract subject to presnting to me within 10 days of sellers acceptance a zoning cert from the city of chicago showing that it is a 3 flat building. If it isnt and it is just grandfathered- that is a legal isue and the zoning cert wont address that.

I have done 100 rehabs in chicago. If interested, look at my 3 flat and see if you would be interested in what I have.

Another way to go is to buy single family residences with at leats 4 or 5 bedrooms. The prices on these are much lower than a year ago and this translates into a greater cash flow.

I have investment houses for sale also.

if interested, call me at 630-212-8311 Dann - Wed Apr 23 2008, 20:25

absolutely, but I am afraid that 90% of the people react to the general story and the lump us all togeter. - Wed Apr 16 2008, 10:07