Tristan Braun

Anacortes and Seattle are definitely two different real estate markets. The main difference is the short-term oversupply of vacant lots in a town of just 16,500+ people. Last time I looked it was around 175-200. Whereas Seattle has very limited available land for new housing developments, Anacortes has plenty as there are several developments with 30-40+ vacant lots just sitting with weeds about ready to explode. Most of these developments are currently not targteted for first-time home buyers where the $8K tax credit would make a difference, but for mid-high end homes (w/views) where getting a jumbo loan at a reasonable rate is still difficult (but, liquidity will be improving with recent gov't programs).

A few local banks such as Horizon Bank and Business Bank of Burlington have made substantial loans to area builders and are now under a "NPL" (Non-performing Loans) pressure on their balance sheets. Business Bank was offerings some great above market CD deals recently which should make any depositer think twice about their financial condition. I expect local builders to slash prices on their vacant lots to get things moving before the banks come after them hard.

And, for those Anacortes realtors browsing arround Trulia, do not expect the same level of out of staters to move up here. The median "price gap' between a home in the SF Bay Area or Southern Cal and Anacortes has dramatically narrowed the past year, making a move up here not as a good deal as it once was. I had a good chuckle to read on J.L Scott's website about the return of California buyers to Anacortes. Well, there may be some moving up here as mortgage rates at 4.5-5.0% should perk things up post-April 15th, but not enough to counter the short-term over-supply. The slow real estate market elsewhere makes it harder to be mobile and move out of state. And, remember, many retirees who would move here have taken a big hit in their retirement accounts. The word "deretired" is now becoming common as retires who thought there were retired are no longer feeling that they can retire.

As they say, supply and demand is everything in real estate. If your living in Seattle metro area, price depreciation this year should not be too bad. However, in Anacortes I am not so sure. I will wait till after April 15th and see if things pickup before passing judgement. I think the real estate/business community (who, by the way are members of the city council and planning commission who approved all those currently empty developments) are way too bullish about real estate here in Anacortes. Many people here got a little greedy and thought if they build all these homes, retirees from WA and out of state will come and buy them up! Well, that was true for a little while, but timing is everything in this world and that certsainly applies to real estate. - Wed Mar 25 2009, 19:38