James T. Sears

Let me be very forthright with you and let the data speak for themselves.

There currently 54 single family homes listed on the MLS in Park Circle with a median listing price of $229k. There is only one property under 140k; this is a 2BRM home 800 sq ft home that went on the market on June 4. Among the 29 active homes with 3BRM none are in your price range and the median listing price is $238k. The cheapest 3BRM home is listed at $149,750--and it has not change in price since its listing this past April

Since January, 29 homes have sold with a median price of $199k; 15 homes with 3BRM have sold since Jan with a median sales price of $212k; ONE home sold within your price range, however. I am familiar with that house (located on Alpha Street) and it sold for $110k and went under contract the same day it was listed!

Also keep in mind that, in terms of sales reductions, Park Circle has held a very well in the generally down year of 2007, with median prices actually increasing about 2%. Inventory, like most places, though is relatively high compared to a year or two earlier.

Therefore, if you are looking for a 3BRM house in Park Circle around $125k, you are very unlikely to find such a home. I follow this market very closely, working with investors and other clients in this area as well as own homes in Park Circle. As soon as an attractive property is listed, I contact those investors who are able to immediately make an offer, backed up often with full cash. I am not the only real estate agent who works with such clients.

The reason for explaining all of this to you, is that unless you are working with a real estate agent who is right on top of the market and you are prepared to make a very quick offer, the odds of finding something in your range and bedroom size is very small. That does not mean it cannot be done, but even in this so-called "buyer's market," Park Circle prices are above your price point and the market remains reasonably healthy.

This, of course, does not mean that agents may not tell you s/he can find you a property, but remember real estate agents (including myself) are licensed by the state as salespersons. Our job is to find clients and then sell them a property. Getting the client is the first priority, if the scope of the search needs to be expanded (e.g., Charleston Farms) or the price point needs to be increased (say $140k) then the sale persons job is to help their client get to that transition point.

My work is focused on providing data to clients with very candid analysis. I write a lot in local newspapers and also have my own website where data in various neighborhood, including Park Circle, is analyzed. You need to be realistic as to both what the various neighborhood markets are actually doing now AND in what skills, motivations, and expertise the real estate agent you chooses really has.

Being able to provide a "good" downpayment is a plus; owner financing is not. If you have a preapproval letter from the bank, that helps, but too many deals are fallign by the wayside due to a buyer not being able to get the loan even with such "pre-approvals." If you are going to be succesful in finding a home, you need to not only be thoughtful in the real estate agent you select but also you need to think like the seller.

Finally, I would suggest that you check out the new on-line news magazine, myparkcircle.com This focuses on the area with lots of information and news stories, including real estate data. Unlike other Park Circle websites, its purpose is not to sell houses.

Good luck as you search for the right property and the best agent to represent your interests. - Sat Jun 28 2008, 08:22

With respect to condos/villas on Seabrook, this past quarter (Jan-March) was actually better in terms of number of sales and median sales price than in the same quarter of 2007. The median price in 1Q 08 was $399k compared to $345k. However, those properties which have sold (n=4 in this past quarter) were on the MLS market an average of 247 days compared to 163 in 1Q 07. Having said that, 2007 was not a good year compared to the year before: only half as many villas/condos were sold last year (taking twice as long) and the average monthly inventory was 32 months (compared to just 7 months of inventory in 2006). Nevertheless, the median sales price continued to climb in 2007 to $465k, compared to $393k the year before.

Looking at Seabrook Island as an investment in the long term, as I noted in my January posting below, is a “no brainer.” Even given the market’s downturn in 2007, the median sales price of a condo/villa has increased 105% since 2000.

And, Diana’s point about the time to buy is correct. Currently there are 116 villas/condos listed for sale on the MLS with a median price of $480k and average DOM of 206. However, I would suggest looking at condos/villas that have been on the market above this average, AND especially those which are now under foreclosure or subject to “short sale.” These properties are listed on my website (along with additional real estate sales data for Seabrook).

James Sears, PhD, ABR
Sears & Partners
CSA Real Estate Services
csa@jtsears.com - Fri May 30 2008, 07:58

Thanks for posting the question about Seabrook Island, Bob!

One of the major developments that is now occurring is the first phase of the Horizon Plan, a $31 million refurbishment project which includes a new community center with a 6000 square foot and lakeside pavilion, a new golf clubhouse and dining facilities, a new beach club, and a remodeled 22-acre equestrian center along with a renovated tennis complex. More information on this can be found in an article published in the Charleston Regional Business Journal http://www.charlestonbusiness.com/pub/13_26/news/11042-1.html

When asked a question on Trulia, I like to respond with specifics directly in the posting. This not only provides you with real estate details but other interested readers as well. As an Accredited Buyer Representative, I certainly would be happy to chat with you in more detail but I don’t think that should be a prerequisite to getting the information you are seeking.

So, how have market values held up on Seabrook, you asked. I have just completed a year-end analysis comparing median price, days on the market (DOM), list price to sales price (LP/SP), and inventory of homes. Here is what I found.

On Seabrook Island the median sales price of a single family home for 2007 was $749,000, which represents a 3.3% reduction from 2006. However, the Seabrook market has shown much more significant declines, notably in 2002 which witnessed a 15% decrease compared to the median sales price of the year before. 2007 recorded the fewest sales of homes (n=39) during the past eight years and a two-thirds drop from 2006 (n=104). The good news is that since 2000, property values on Seabrook Island, in terms of median sales prices of single family homes sold since 2000, have increased 42.7%. Further, successful sellers are waiting much less time (118 days) than those who sold between 2000 and 2004 where the DOM average was double (240 days). In short, 2007 saw substantially fewer island homes sold for a slightly lower price at about the same length of time than during 2006.

For single family homes the LP/SP ratio in 2007 was 92.2% compared to 95.7% in 2006 and 96.1% the year before. Below 95% is considered a “soft market.” These data, however, mask the magnitude of price drops in 2007 on Seabrook. The LP/SP ratio is based on the final listing price—many homes are reduced two or more times before a buyer is found. In order to more accurately assess the strength of the market it is important to compare the original listed price (OLP) compared to what is finally paid at closing. These data are not available through the MLS, but are compiled by Sears & Partners. During the last half of 2007, the LP/SP ratio for existing single family homes on Seabrook Island was 92.4%. But, comparing the sale price to the original list price yields a ratio of 88.9%. The average price reduction on a Seabrook home sold during the last six months was $132,745 (details for Seabrook and other areas can be found athttp:// www.searspartners.com). Further, incentives such as the seller paying some or all of buyer’s closing costs or giving cash credit to the buyer for repairs are not reflected in the OLP/SP ratio.

Inventory of homes is another major factor contributing to the Seabrook market. Six months inventory represents a balanced market. At the height of the seller’s market, in 2005, the average for all single family homes on Seabrook was 6.2 months, the next year it was 8.8 months, and last year it was 31.8 months.

Given these sets of data, this is a terrific time to purchase a home on Seabrook. Values will very likely increase as the local and national markets equalize toward the end of 2008 and into 2009. Further, the new facilities brought through the Horizon Plan coupled to the continued influx of boomer retirees into the Charleston area, and the relative value of Seabrook compared to other high-end areas (e.g., Kiawah, Wild Dunes, Daniel Island) will mean that your move to purchase a home will be a wise investment. More detailed information about Seabrook Island and other Charleston market areas can be found on my website. Good house hunting!

James Sears, PhD, ABR
Sears & Partners
CSA Real Estate Services
csa@jtsears.com - Sun Jan 20 2008, 12:19

I agree that it would require a professional market analysis to recommend a listing range and price point for your home. But, one simply needs to look at the data across the last several first quarters for single family home sales in Rivertowne to make an unequivocal recommendation: don’t list your home in this market unless you must do so!

I will let the data in Rivertowne make the case. Since 2003, there has been a pretty consistent number of homes sold in the first quarter: about 30. The exception is 2008; only 12 sold. The average DOM is also much higher than before the recent market run up. Those homes that sold in the first quarter in 2008 were on the market for an average of 172 days; in 2007 (hardly a great year) it was 117. At the high point in the seller’s market it was just 24—and in 2003 it was 126. Further, the ratio between final listing price and sales price in the first quarter of 2008 (95.3%) is the lowest in this six-year period—and, keep in mind, this does not consider the actual difference between what a seller originally listed the house for and the amount for which it was finally sold. The only bit of good news is that the median sales price is up (about 40%) since 2003, but there has been a slide from the 2005 high point of $526k to $382k. In short: fewer homes are selling after a longer time on the market at a more reduced price for a lesser amount of money.

My primary focus is residential real estate analysis, working as an accredited buyer’s representative. Monthly, quarterly, and annual analysis of select Charleston neighborhoods can be found on my website. I do not seek home listings. I work with sellers in providing an independent professional market analysis (usually 20-30 pages in length) under the condition that I do not list their house.

My free advice: think about listing your home in early to mid 2009.

James Sears, PhD
Realtor, ABR, CSA Real Estate Services
Residential Real Estate Analyst, Sears & Partners, LLC
www.searspartners.com
843-478-3911 (Cell) - Tue May 20 2008, 18:57

Since others have already given you resources regarding the Long Savannah Development, let me focus more specifically on some hard facts regarding the real estate market in Charleston's historic district.

There are currently 250 single family homes available in the Charleston Peninsula below what is called the “Crosstown.” Most of these properties and the neighborhoods (e.g., South of Broad, Ansonborough) are well above your price range—even for “fixer-uppers.” The median list price is $899k. If you are looking at a condo, the median list price is somewhat lower ($609k) and the selection greater (367 properties).

Now for the better news. There are about 20 single family homes that are under $275k (although some are offered by the City of Charleston for first time home buyers only). Here you are really looking at the Eastside, a transitional neighborhood, as most likely to be in the price range and offer opportunities for some renovations. But, there is one property—significantly reduced—in Cannonborough which is now below $200k (orig list price was $50k more) and would need some renovation. There are also some good deals on condos below the Crosstown. My website provides details of all the Peninsula neighborhoods including detailed real estate data (e.g., number of homes sold/active/withdrawn, list price/sale price, days on the market) for both single family homes and condos). These data are updated monthly.

You may want to consider other historical neighborhoods above the Crosstown or outside the Peninsula. In Wagener Terrace, for instance, although the median price of homes is above your range, since January of the eight properties which have sold, the median sales price was $276k. Another example, outside of Charleston, is Park Circle (about 15 minute drive from the downtown). This is a rapidly transitioning neighborhood that was designed at the turn of the century with many parks (Olmstead inspired), Craftsman-style houses, the Olde Village (with new restaurants, etc) along with upscale developments that are Green-friendly. Here the median sales price is about $200k for about 30 single family homes now on the market.

You are in a very good situation if you can pay cash, given the market conditions and greater difficulties of finding buyers who can actually close with a bank mortgage. In fact, I just finished working with a client from Trulia who got a terrific deal on a marsh front property since she was paying in cash.

As you can see, I am not a big fan of telling someone to “send me an email or give me a call” in order to provide you basic information or to offer you an automatic MLS search service—all real agents (salespersons) can do that. As a retired professor of education and an Accredited Buyers Representative and a real estate analyst, I only work with a select number of clients. I am not interested in selling houses; I am committed to providing premium services to thoughtful buyers who understand the difference between finding a house versus investing in a home, between speculation versus investment, and who understand that they are investing in a community as well as in a home.

James T. Sears, PhD, ABR
CSA Real Estate Services
Sears & Partners, LLC
843-478-3911 (mobile)
www.searspartners.com - Tue May 20 2008, 05:59

Like other areas in Charleston, there are both public and private schools on Johns Island. However, in terms of "ranking," I assume you are referring to performance of schools on standardized tests, which would restrict our conversation to public schools. On Johns Island, those would be Johns Island High School, Haut Gap Middle School and Mt. Zion Elementary. As the other agents have already indicated, information about those schools can be found on the web. But, let me caution you as to how much credence you give to such scores in terms of equating rank with how good the school might be.

The key is what one means by "good" schools. Typically, folks cite standardized test scores which bring a list of communities like Summerville, Hanahan, Mount Pleasant or school found in Berkeley or Dorchester counties. But, these are aggregate scores and do not, for example, take into consideration the pool of students which they are getting to begin with. Simply stated how much DIFFERENCE do specific schools really make in improving, enhancing, and advancing students cognitive abilities? If students are, on average, already good readers, etc before entering schools then, compared to those schools whose students do not come from such privileged backgrounds, the schools will appear to be "better." Committed and experienced teachers, not test scores, are the measure. This is the true litmus test for great schools--and a school that can best serve the needs of your individual child may be different from mine, because my child is different from yours.

There is also the question of whether you are interested in various charter schools or private schools, which bring us to other considerations, which I won't detail here.

What I recommend is that you look at the variety of Johns Island neighborhoods (e.g., Whitney Lake, Villages at St. Johns in the Woods, Gift Plantation as well as nearby Seabrook and Kiawah) based on a variety of factors (e.g., median housing price, location, appreciation rates and prospects for appreciation, commercial and recreational amenities). This real estate information can be found on my website. Then you can begin to investigate some of the specific schools--both public and private--which should not simply be looking at test scores; connect with educators/parents in those schools.

Before entering real estate, I taught for 25 years in South Carolina and have written extensively about education. It is really critical to look at the micro-level (what is best for YOUR child/children) rather than at the macro-level. One school, for example, may have a tremendous music and art programs. If you select a school district based on aggregate test scores (which do not at all include the arts in their measure), then have you really matched your child with the right school? My point, of course, can be extended to other areas as well.

Thinking strategically about the right school for your child is just as important as thinking in detail about the right house/neighborhood for your residence. One size does not fit all! As an Accredited Buyer Representative and South Carolina Realtor, my primary job is not to sell a home to a customer but to help clients find the best home to match their specific needs--including the educational needs of their children! - Mon May 12 2008, 05:12