PDXOutsider

So what happened?

The market had definitely turned, so hopefully you were able to negotiate a price within your budget, or found something else. - Wed Jun 11 2008, 11:16

"Price/sq ft is totally mis-leading criteria. It compares McMansion on a lot size of a handkerchief with a modest house on several acres and McMansion comes out looking cheaper! What a joke."

Sam, I'm not comparing McMansions and bungalows. I'm comparing houses in similar neighborhoods in inner Portland. But I was trying to get at whether the heat map measures total size, or just finished size.

Squeezed, you're right, I've published the S&P data on my blog linked below if anyone cares to see it. I'm still waiting to buy, but doing my research in the meantime! - Wed May 28 2008, 14:16

OK Ron, since you insist I'm wrong, let me show you an example as proof.

RMLS listing # 8037567, located at 5226 NE 21ST AVE.

It's listed at 2664 sq ft, but if you look at the assesor data on Portland Maps, it clearly shows 1146 sq ft for the main floor, 400 sq ft for a finished attic, and 1122 for an unfinished basement. Add them together and you get the 2664 which the RMLS lists, which obviously includes the unfinished basement (see the photos, this is definitely an unfinished basement suitable only for storage and not much else). I'm not saying that the space isn't valuable, but that it's not as valuable as true finished space, with walls, lights, flooring, etc. I'm pretty sure nobody here would call that livable space at the moment, therefore I believe it should not be included in the RMLS listing.

I agree with you that some people "finish" a space without reporting it., but I want no part of it. I've seen the results of this, and it's usually pretty poor. I'm not willing to risk my families lives to shoddy wiring or structural changes that are not to code, are you?

"Buyers I would advise to take the outsider's information with a grain of salt because it sounds like he might be misinformed. Now is the best time to buy in several years. This is just logic again PDX. It is the same as the stock market, buy low sell high. The inventory is high so buyers can negotiate a great deal and interest rate are still very low. "

Here your'e comparing apples and oranges. Yes you should buy when PRICES are low, not when they are high. Prices are at near record highs, and I for one believe they will fall further. It's definitely a better time to buy than last year, but I believe next year will be even better.

"The market in Oregon is not declining much and it likely will not."

I have two data sources (RMLS and Case Schiller) that show that prices have declined over 8% from their highs last year, and they are still declining. I'll wait. Real estate markets don't rebound quickly like the stock market, they flatline for a few years. It will be easy to find the bottom.

And finally, If I'm misinformed it's because most realtors I keep hearing from won't face the reality that the Portland market is overvalued and prices are dropping. I got tired of rely on their biased analysis, so I went and did my own. And my analysis says to wait.

Good luck weathering the downturn. - Thu May 22 2008, 12:06

I heard from Trulia, and the information is calculated based on assessor records, which I believe are more accurate.

The assesor records list the finished size in their summary. ALL the RMLS sites I see list the TOTAL size, including unfinished space. I'm tired of having to constantly go check the assesor records to know the true size of a house and I wish the RMLS would change their policy.

For other potential buyer's out there, come check out my blog where you'll get an objective view of the market, not the usual "it's always a great time to buy" spin. - Thu May 22 2008, 09:10

I guess I wasn't clear enough, I'm looking for the source of the data for the Trulia Heatmaps. I'm not trying to debate which is better, RMLS or Assessor.

Anybody from Trulia care to comment?

http://portlandrealestateoutsider.blogspot.com/ - Tue May 6 2008, 12:41

I believe it's NAR policy (according to another agent) to include all listed areas in the sq footage calculations. Take this house:

http://www.cbseal.com/PropertyDetail.aspx?GroupID=37918523&S…

It's listed as 2422 sq ft. But if you look at the assesor records,

http://www.portlandmaps.com/detail.cfm?action=Assessor&prope…

they show that 1000 sq ft of that is the unfinished basement.

I'm not saying the assesor records are perfect, but at least they call a spade a spade. Damp basements and attics with 4 ft celings are not what I would call "living space".

I also regularly see listings misrepresent neighborhoods, so the "Code of Ethics" doesn't seem to strict these days. If you know where I can report these rogue agents let me know, I'd be glad to. - Wed Apr 30 2008, 15:49

who's salaries? Can you clarify? - Wed May 14 2008, 17:04

Most real estate agents here are just quoting RMLS appreciation stats, which show the latest 12 months over the previous 12 months. They are still showing appreciation because they still include the peak of last years bubble. Comparing March 08 to March 07 shows a decline for the area, and at least a 5% decline from the peak in July.

If you'd like an objective analysis of the market, take a look at the site linked here for all the data you could ask for.

You also haven't stated your goals. If you plan to be there 5-10 years then you'll likely ride out any temporary downturn. If you're planning on being there 3 years or less, I think you'll lose money., but otherwise that's not a bad price.

As for getting out of your contract, that depends on how you wrote it, and you'll need legal advice or at least a good agent to help.

But yes, the bubble is bursting in Portland, no matter what the agents say. Good luck, and next time ask these questions before making an offer! - Tue May 13 2008, 13:12

i don't think so, at least i haven't looked. realtytrac.com does, but it's a pay service.

the one thing i'm pretty sure of is that you need to pay cash for the full price of the sale on the same day of the auction. no mortgages allowed. that limits auctions for most people, unless you're sitting on a pile of cash! - Thu Feb 14 2008, 11:58