Louis

I just want to add to my answer, because I don't want to come across as unrelentingly negative. The coast is its own microcosm. It is a pretty small market in a surprisingly isolated area (given how close it is to San Francisco and the Peninsula).

There are plenty of scenarios that could play out. Maybe prices will only deteriorate another 5-10% (that's still $30K-$60K on a $600K home--which is not a very expensive home in this area). The question you have to ask yourself is: if I find a house that I love and I'm certain where I want to live, am I willing to live with equity loss and the possibility of a flat flat flat market for who knows how many years?

The one thing that gives me pause is that there seems to be a fair number of pricey new constructions in the area and non-subprime ARMS are just starting to kick in (and there will be another wave in about 4 years of prime ARM resets), so a lot has to do with how the job market goes for these upper middle class folks and how long they're willing to keep paying on a house that is worth a great deal less than it was 2 years ago. For example, a quick search on Montara on a real estate site shows 22 homes for sale and 6 foreclosures. That's a lot of volatility for such a tiny market (population approximately 3,000). Your call. Good luck. I'd rent and scope it out. - Sat Jan 31 2009, 19:45

1. I've been hearing "they aren't making any more real estate" for my entire life and wish realtors would put a can on that red herring. It just doesn't help anyone.

2. There are substantial issues facing the coastal communities, including infrastructure issues like adequate water supplies (and its cost). The current financial crisis isn't going to make addressing them any easier, especially with regard to issuing debt or raising taxes.

3. Half Moon Bay is substantially larger than Montara or El Granada, so I'm not sure I see a comparison.

4. I would be very cautious, you are starting to ask some of the right questions. Be just as cautious in parsing through the answers you get.

5. My personal opinion (admittedly unscientific) is that property on the coast, in general, is still overvalued. Is a house a bargain when it's selling for 25% less than the peak of the market but 125% higher than it did 10 years ago?? 10% annual appreciation is way out of line with historical values, so be very careful. It's a new world out there and there are a lot of people trying to keep "talking" the market up on the coastside. - Wed Jan 28 2009, 16:30

1. I've been hearing "they aren't making any more real estate" for my entire life and wish realtors would put a can on that red herring. It just doesn't help anyone.

2. There are substantial issues facing the coastal communities, including infrastructure issues like adequate water supplies (and its cost). The current financial crisis isn't going to make addressing them any easier, especially with regard to issuing debt or raising taxes.

3. Half Moon Bay is substantially larger than Montara or El Granada, so I'm not sure I see a comparison.

4. I would be very cautious, you are starting to ask some of the right questions. Be just as cautious in parsing through the answers you get.

5. My personal opinion (admittedly unscientific) is that property on the coast, in general, is still overvalued. Is a house a bargain when it's selling for 25% less than the peak of the market but 125% higher than it did 10 years ago?? 10% annual appreciation is way out of line with historical values, so be very careful. It's a new world out there and there are a lot of people trying to keep "talking" the market up on the coastside. - Wed Jan 28 2009, 15:40

Hmm. Pacifica is definitely many small communities. There's a big blue collar element (despite the high per capita income), some neighborhoods have lots of old ratty old vehicles and not well-maintained homes but are fairly pricey. I would argue against those who say that Pacifica is not in for a notable price decline (in addition to what has happened to date). Look at the historicals from 2000-2007 and you are looking at fairly steep increases in valuation. That is in addition to a large number of new constructions from the past decade and a lot of turnover. There are quite a few properties in foreclosure. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Weather: if you like fog and more fog and cold ocean air, you'll love it there.
Crime: very low
Schools: good public schools for the most part.

An interesting tool is google maps street photographs. You can get a good idea of what a neighborhood looks like just by moving up and down the streets. One other point: there are areas that flood regularly (parts of Linda Mar) and an area right on the ocean. Regularly being every 10-20 years. - Wed Apr 16 2008, 21:07