oscar

I'm a:	Just Looking
Location:	Alamo

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If you had a choice, where would you buy?...Alamo, Blackhawk, or Sanders Ranch in Moraga

Asked Tue Sep 23 2008, 07:57 by SJ - Contra Costa County - Home Buying - 20 answers

oscar answered:

Bernard,

What is lifestyle - it can't be deciding between Alamo, Blackhawk or Moraga. It is having the money for Europe or vacations, education, great food, charity. It is the capacity to spend real "chunks" of time doing the things one loves to do.

To say that too many people look at housing as "what is the best investment" ignores the simple fact that housing is shelter, it is not an investment. Living in the east bay may be a lifestyle choice if one lives in the midwest, but choosing from three nice communities is not.

Oscar - Sat Oct 4 2008, 05:32

SJ,

We live in Alamo and love it. Whitegate is very nice and quiet as is Bryan Ranch and Roundhill. The west side of Alamo gets early evening shade because of the hills to the west and has more traffic noise. That said the west side is quaint, close to shopping and the Iron Horse Trial.

Happy house hunting! - Tue Sep 30 2008, 16:06

I agree with John that prices will decrease significantly over the next couple of years. The ratio of income to home prices will return to historic norms. Alamo is a very wealthy community with median household incomes in excess of $150,000 /year. A normal ratio of income to house price would be 3 or 4. In other words, the median price of homes in Alamo will likely need to approach $600,000 before it would make sense to enter into the market.

If you look at a long term home price chart for Alamo - see Yahoo Real Estate - it suggests that prices will return to the values of 1995 to 2000.

Since the days of easy money are well behind us - bail out or not -cash is king. And the annual cash flow will determine home price levels.

Oscar - Tue Sep 30 2008, 15:57

Should I buy in Lamorinda in 2008 or wait until 2009 for even lower prices?

Asked Wed Feb 13 2008, 11:47 by Jonathan - Lafayette - Market Conditions - 31 answers

oscar answered:

Prices almost suredly will reset to the standard income/price ratio. It may take a significant amount of time for this to happen since the housing market is not a liquid market. But as significant inventory becomes available such inventory will reflect the market prices which will be set eventually by the cash flow available for servicing the mortgage.

Many individual were able to purchase homes far above thier intrinsic value becasue they were selling homes far above intrinsic value. - Tue Apr 8 2008, 10:58

Lafayette has a median income of $120,000. People cannot afford $1.1 million homes long term. In the short term, favorable lending terms help people to "afford" the home by offering interest only or low initial interest rates. The days of easy loans and terms are in the past. So a return to a 3:1 price to income ratio with 10 to 25 percent as a cash down payment will be the norm for the future. Given the emotional aspect to home pricing - it may take some time for prices to come down. - Mon Apr 7 2008, 12:36

You should wait until the median income to median price ratio returns to historical norms. You might need to use high median income to do the analysis, since Lamorinda is a prefered community for those commuting into the City. Even using a $200k income (which is higher than the city) one would expect median home prices to be in the $600,000 to $800,000 range. Lamorinda's median is still over a million. - Sun Apr 6 2008, 16:52

A good source of information is the 5 year price trend found at Yahoo Real Estate or Zillow. The median price in 2004 was approximately $750,000. The "easy credit" seemed to cause a dramatic increase in prices to about the $1.2 million level. If the increase was due to easy credit, home prices should revert back to the $750,000 level.

I would rely on unbiased data regarding market prices. When you feel it is time to buy a realtor can be a great resource for finding the right home, but might not be the most objective source for market pricing and timing. - Tue Mar 4 2008, 05:24

me and my family are moving to Brentwood this summer and with how the economy is going im so scared to make a

Asked Mon Mar 24 2008, 11:21 by Yahannia Som… - Brentwood - General Area - 9 answers

oscar answered:

I would keep you home in Missouri and rent in Brentwood until you decide what is best for you and your family. One of the best positions in economic life is to have options, an option to move back to Missouri, an option to check out neighborhoods in Brentwood and an option to wait out the market as it appears to be decreasing in price.

Also, keep in mind that realtors are generally not economists - they should not give when to buy advice - rather they should only be used in selecting a home after you decide the time to buy is right.

Best wishes on your move. - Wed Mar 26 2008, 18:53

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