Thanks for all the helpful comments so far! A few replies/comments to some of the questions so far...
Everyone-- I pulled comps by writing software to query the county assessor by neighborhood id. All square footage as listed there. There are approx 100 props in this neighborhood, all built post-2001. Nearby neighborhoods are much more expensive, or much older so I didn't consider those in this calculation (I did analyze them, though, and they would actually help my case). Comps are for same-size homes (~ 3300-4200 sf) , same BR/BA, same builder, same lot sizes, same age, etc. Basement premium is estimated by knowing which comps have finished basements (drive by), assuming a full basement (the norm in nbhd) area equal to main floor area, and comparing finished/unfinished comps ppsf. Note that I inflation-adjusted sales prices to Sep '07 dollars using standard CPI calculator, and further added 2% annual increase due to real property appreciation. The numbers I have compare well to zillow.com Roswell ppsf estimates, and surprisingly to adjusted '05 comps (yes, I did those, too). As a check, I looked at the '07 total tax appraised value and found the relative values in the nbhd to be consistent. I know home county sales reporting online lags by a few months, but I've been doing drive-bys since July so I I'm missing at most 1-2 sales. Does any of this sound unreasonable? Suggestions for better comps (aside from the obvious MLS data I can't access)?
Everyone-- so many detailed responses, let me also throw out this info: there are currently 5 listings in the nbhd, 1-2 new 60-days, all priced lower (square-foot adjusted, and real), one priced almost the same with 25% more sq ft but unfinished basement. Two bank-owned properties not advertised according to RealtyTrac.
Lee-- I agree the seller's finances are also important; that's why I included purchase price in other thread. I'm sure they don't want a loss, so that's the psychological floor. Their real floor may be much higher based on relo, finances, etc. You realtors can provide insight into how important rational valuation is in selling a home in this market... I suspect that a fair deal is probably acceptable at this point, and that a skilled buyer's agent can help present an offer as fair. Market timing must be a looming consideration, also....
Jane-- good advice also, but you seem to contradict your post on my other thread a bit. There you say that 10% is too low to offer, here you say it can work... there you discount the owner purchase price, here you say it's important.
Brett-- excepting recent (6-mos) sales, I think my raw comp data is solid....
Diane-- good point. We want the house, and it's our current favorite potential, but there are at least two others that are very exciting alternatives. If it was *the* house I could just offer 5-10% lower and negotiate a typical sale. Since I can wait, though, I want to get the best (fair) value I can. I'm pretty sure the house is top-25% for its class, but it's mispriced and there are *so* many newer resales and new constructions available within 2 miles. I just don't see a strong bargaining position for the seller. I realize that doesn't mean *they* share my view, tho, which is why I started this thread!
Diane-- Btw, I'm not sure why comps from peak season last year would be *worse* than slump this Fall, especially since I accounted for inflation and 2% price appreciation per year... Does a single possible additional sale in the neighborhood this summer really affect the strategy that drastically, especially as we head further into slowdown?
Claire-- as mentioned, there are no sales in this nbhd within 3 mos. Nearby neighborhoods are '80s or '90s homes, or million+ homes. An appraisal would be interesting, but shouldn't that occur at a more committed point in the buying process? After all, I still don't have an agent yet..... Also, perhaps mistakenly, I'm under the impression that you can get a 600K property appraised +/- 10% by proper choice of appraiser, and that is within the margin of my desired offer, so I expect either buyer or seller could make an appraisal work to justify price. - Sat Oct 13 2007, 16:28