Marco

Hi Kevin

You can use the dataquick service directly or access the same database through either http://www.paloaltoonline.com or http://www.mercurynews.com/realestate by using their search engines.

The following are the results listed in the latter for sales from '06 to today with price > $3M:

11/15/2007 3814 Quail Drive PALO ALTO CA 94303 $3,469,500
11/2/2007 4121 Old Trace Road PALO ALTO CA 94306 $3,245,000
8/29/2007 424 Seneca Street PALO ALTO CA 94301 $3,268,000
8/23/2007 3077 Country Club Court PALO ALTO CA 94304 $3,650,000
6/1/2007 2051 Emerson Street PALO ALTO CA 94301 $5,200,000
4/12/2007 935 Ramona Street #B PALO ALTO CA 94301 $3,300,500
8/31/2006 1437 Hamilton Avenue PALO ALTO CA 94301
8/2/2006 4155 Old Trace Road PALO ALTO CA 94306

If you check in the MLS you will get 51 sales for '07 alone.

When I mentioned this to my wife, she decided to take the initiative to check all the MLS records in the santa clara office directly to confirm all the MLS sales. I'll post here results next week.

Although not conclusive, some of the sales look suspicious based on zillow data. Take 1068 university which is listed on the mls as sold on 7/19/2007 for 3.1M. Zillow has no record of the sale and lists an estimated value of 2,335,500. More telling is that there is an owner's estimate listing improvements made to the property raising its value to 2,467,287. He updated this information on february of this year. Given that he listed improvements presumably to raise the valuation of the property, it would be fair to assume he would have corrected the fact that he paid 3.1M for the property in july of last year.

With this in mind, what are the checks and balances that the mls follows to ensure all posted sales in fact took place?

James is right in that even if a fraction of the sales on the MLS turn out to have never taken place, palo alto is clearly overvalued in this price range. - Tue May 13 2008, 10:52

Hi roland,
Let me restate the question a different way. I am not wondering whether mediam price reported on a weekly basis is a reasonable way to value the market. My question is, if you look at the same data set provided by the MLS, you get a very different answer. IE what would the MLS say is the median price and number of sales is over the same time period?

In a similar vein, if you look in data quick for home sales > $3M in palo alto you obtain the following results (6 sales total):

11/15/2007 3814 Quail Drive PALO ALTO CA 94303 $3,469,500
11/2/2007 4121 Old Trace Road PALO ALTO CA 94306 $3,245,000
8/29/2007 424 Seneca Street PALO ALTO CA 94301 $3,268,000
8/23/2007 3077 Country Club Court PALO ALTO CA 94304 $3,650,000
6/1/2007 2051 Emerson Street PALO ALTO CA 94301 $5,200,000
4/12/2007 935 Ramona Street #B PALO ALTO CA 94301 $3,300,500

If you check in the mls over the same time period you will find 51 sales > $3M with a high of $19.5M for 3231 alexis drive. There is no record for the majority of these sales in santa clara county records.

Again my question is why? - Tue Apr 29 2008, 14:32

Let me clarify my question: If you consider palo alto zip code 94301 only data quick shows the following:

Palo Alto 94301 median price $892,500 % change -38.4%, $/sqft $814 # of sales 16 % change # sales -27.3%

This does not include EPA sales activity. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 10:25

Hi Stephen,

You might be interested in reading the attached reference published in business week. Nationally, the real estate market is overpriced from an upswing in valuations starting from 2000 onward. One illuminating fact is that since 1890, real estate has only returned 0.4% inflation adjusted, placing it well behind bonds and stocks.

It is well documented in a number of sources that you are financially better off renting and investing the difference of what you might pay to service a mortgage and property taxes. This is more true for the bay area with high property valuations. In many cases you can not deduct property taxes due to AMT exclusion rules, and the mortgage deduction only applies to the first 1M financed.

Buy a property only if you want the stability of owning a home and the lifestyle it might afford. Consider it a windfall if you happen to make any money on it after inflation, mortgage interest and property taxes. - Mon May 12 2008, 16:23

Hi Manvi,

Just as the seller is free to list a house at whatever price is deemed reasonable, you are free to make an offer that you deem reasonable. The seller can choose whether or not to give you a counter offer.

Given that 30 somerset place is not selling and you feel 731 de soto is a viable comp., you should offer less than 1.85M if the former did not sell at this price. Worse case you move on to another listing.

Marco - Tue Apr 29 2008, 15:27

Hi Manvi,

I posted a related question concerning market trends in palo alto. With regards to data quick information, the answers are only partially correct. While it is true that east palo alto and palo alto have the common zip code 94303, the zip code 94301 is unique to Palo Alto.
Data Quick shows the following for the 94301 zip code:
Palo Alto 94301 median price $892,500 % change -38.4%, $/sqft $814 # of sales 16 % change # sales -27.3%

I still haven't read a credible answer as to why these numbers are so different from what the MLS states. If you believe data quick prices are falling in palo alto. - Tue Apr 29 2008, 10:11