Riley

See, the key word is "priced correctly." Correctly to reflect a declining market or correctly for the sellers? I would think Phyllis meant for a declining market.

I would also challenge the dropping of only 3% from last year. Please share the actual data. If the data is from wcbr.net, I would also question it. Having worked with some of the numbers that WCBR.net made public, I am really not sure how clean that data is. On the aggregate level, they may seem ok but there appears to be no clean way to access data on a more detailed basis, whether it is by year or by location.

In comparison, if anyone with a quantitative background takes a look at case schiller data which is downloadable, you will see a time series trend of declining in all price points in commuter NY. Granted, it's not as specific as WCBR has for Westchester. If you compare the curve of the index 08 vs. 07, the moment also does not parallel last year thus far and is showing a further decline.

The argument of "location, location" and the scarcity of supply has validity. But will it be enough to offset the declining trend? And can anyone quantify these two factors?

The philosophy of "not when you buy but how long you are staying in the home" is a nice comforting thought for those of us who value the emotional essence of a home. For those us who are diligent with our money and would like a return in the next 10 years, it is a completely different outlook. The assets put in a home of declining value simply cannot compete with assets that are invested elsewhere with a higher than flat return.

I think Zack and J are closer to the future. Crystal ball or not - there is a reason why there are economists who are managing the interest rates and forecasting the future. But I guess that without these comforting thoughts, no one will ever buy in this market. Therefore, it's great and healthy to hear all these different opinions and thoughts. - Sat Jun 28 2008, 10:13

I don't believe homeownership is the American dream. A home is a place you live in to create memories with your family. That can happen anywhere even if you don't own the house. But I think it signifies the ability to be successful and the opportunity to have a choice. Owning a home implies that you have made a somewhat permanent choice to live where you want and in a house you want. Since homeownership often is one of the largest purchases one makes - hence the association with the American dream.

What really gets me is that real estate agents don't understand why I don't have an emotional connection with the house I am trying to purchase. I don't get why that's so important. It's a financial transaction, bottom line. Sure I like the place; otherwise, I would not have put in an offer. It's assumed that it's an emotional transaction because it's the American dream. So on the one hand, you got a whole lot of real estate agents who want to help one achieve this dream and want to reinforce it. On the other hand, you get the general public who do things just because it is "something you do as an adult." Then this American dream lives on. These two side enable each other and they may not even realize it.

Depending on one's background, the American dream can really vary. I came to the US from Asia when I was little and it was way cool to grow up in a society where freedom of speech and individuality are valued. It's even better to be able to step out of the stereotype of who I was supposed to be and be who I want to be. That is an American dream for me. So now that's achieved, I have moved onto other American dreams... homeownership is just convenient once you can get through all the crap. - Tue Jun 24 2008, 20:59

Thank you all for your answers. To James, your suggestions were right on track with what was done.

To further complicate the question - the theoretical home is not by the U but inside Emigration Canyon. Now, that's a different game.

A) How do you bring prospective buyers into the Canyon when "most likely SLC buyers" only shop Avenues, Sugarhouse, Cottonwood, Olympus Cove and "most likely Park City buyers" only shop Park City?

B) How do you combat the general mentality that housing market is in the hole and therefore no one should be buying a house now?

C) At what price range are the inventory moving from what you are seeing for this Spring?

D) How is the Spring market, not to mention the snow we just had today? - Thu May 1 2008, 22:35