Ron

Thanks for all of your very insightful answers. It is very helpful, and this has been an excellent conversation. I have lived in Jax before (1980 to 1986, both in Arlington and Orange Park). Even had a "pray for me I drive on Blanding Blvd" bumper sticker. So I have some, although dated, history with the city. Trying to get my arms around the trends of the area before we move east, if we decide there instead of Atlanta. Ponte Vedra, Queen Creek, and Charter Point are all on our "A"list.
Thanks, John, your comments as a local buyer are great. The same is happening here in Tucson for the $1mm+ home market, Everyone thinks their home is worth a million dollars, and now there is a three to four year supply at that level, and growing. With tightening credit requirements, and jumbo loan premiums, this overhang in inventory is sure to sit for awhile. 2005/2006/2007 are over.
Here in Arizona, many of the Realtors are very open and forthcoming with local data, which results in better decision making for both the sellers and the buyers. See http://www.brendaobrien.com and http://www.thetucsonfoothills.typepad.com. Brenda has the monthly Board of Realtors report, which gives fantastic data on hame sales. And the foothills site, if you dig a bit, gives all sales in the area over the last 30-60 days, including asking price vs. selling price. I have been unable to find this level of data on my searches of Jax realtor sites.
Is anyone educating your customers to this level there? I would appreciate a link to any of this type of data. And please, no comments about this being "secret data", and who needs a Realtor if anyone can get this info. In the age of the Internet, data is king, and the one who steps up will get the most action (we will still enlist a buyers agent for our move). More information is always better.
Ron in Tucson - Mon Aug 11 2008, 16:56

Thanks for your input. One of the sites with a 2009 forecast is http://www.housingpredictor.com/hitbottom.html.
Don, sorry to say, but with the tools available to smart buyers today, and the magnitude of any real estate tranaction, not looking at the future predictions( as only one of many factors in the decision) is a suckers game, sorta like musical chairs. In a decreasing market, protection of equity is critical for a buyer. Remember, as in any transaction in an open marketplace, the price of a home is solely dictated by what someone will give you for it, not what you think it is worth (or unfortunatly for those who bought since 2005, possibly less than what you paid for it).
We will be following the market closely during the next few months, but right now it looks like a safe bet to rent for a year until the foreclosure/mortgage mess clears out.
Ron from Tucson - Sat Aug 9 2008, 16:32