Bubble Boy

The reason you are here is to drop your business card everytime someone asks a question. Similar to Realty Times.

And no, I'm not un-employed. I'm in the top 20% of the households in my region, and I'm single. And I proudly rent. I've been following the housing bubble since 2005.

Any Anti-realtor is backlash against the speculative mania of the past few years.

I consider myself a Real Estate expert because I can come back with just about every positive thing a Realtor says with the truth. And don't go blaming the main stream media for the downturn, they HANDED you years of good times, quoting only the NAR and ignoring what would happen in the future. - Sun May 11 2008, 18:18

Since this is a Hampton Roads / Southeastern Virginia / Virginia Beach thread, I will state it. House prices in Hampton Roads / Southeastern Virginia / Virginia Beach are way too high. If you take the median household income and compare it against the median home price, it is very out of line. The result of this will be huge price decreases once lax lending standards are removed. The recent run-up in home prices was ABNORMAL, and can't go on. Look at professor Shiller's chart. I agree that the "bubble" didn't happen everywhere, but it did happen in over 60 prime metro areas and Hampton Roads is one of those. 100%+ appreciation in home values in Virginia Beach with an actual DECREASE in Wages since 2001 (Source Virginia Pilot, it is adjusted for inflation). America (our USA) is mostly a has-been, and going forward there will be more financial pain (for us) as other countries rise up and an equilibrium in living standards is reached (this means down for us, up for them). Why can't Realtors get it? Your primary house is NOT AN INVESTMENT, it's SHELTER. You are supposed to have RETIREMENT SAVINGS outside of your home. The housing bubble was just a way for the masters to hide the real problems and keep uneducated Americans feeling good. But now it's time for payback, and as a result we will loose trust, we will loose faith in the dollar, and things will be much worse versus just letting things play out before. Realtors -- you don't get it. You might have been able to rent your Benz based on home sales, but the bubble has really damaged America. It's not sustainable. - Sun May 11 2008, 07:39

So the Realtor(TM) says he goes by what the buyer wants the monthly payment to be... THAT IS WRONG. How about the true intrinsic value of the property? It's a LOOSERS market for any first time buyer. You look at the income from the census data here in Homicide Roads, and you will quickly realize that the incomes in this area won't support all of the high end housing that is sitting empty. Sure the low end stuff is moving, at the maximum price point the people can actually qualify for loans... but eventually they will run out of fools, and banks will run out of financing, and there won't be anyone. YOUNG PEOPLE, REVOLT! Don't feed these greedy old people YEARS of your hard work for a cheaply constructed (most likely by exploited illegal labor) house stuffed with cheesy gimmick stainless steel appliances (that were most likely made by exploited foreign labor, with the profits going to the greedy old people). Real estate prices are going to fall... perhaps 50%+ in Hampton Roads. America is falling apart because we are a nation of debt. The old people ruined it for us. - Tue Apr 8 2008, 22:29

Do some research. For instance, today in the PIlot there are over 70 foreclosures in Virginia Beach, 47 in Norfolk, and over 90 in Ptown/Chesapeake/Suffolk. Unfortunately I didn't track those before. Craigslist is slammed full of people trying to sell overpriced garbage (This could be a case of FSBO, but many of the eyesores look like they are in the MLS as well). Countrywide (Now bought by BofA) I believe has halted much of their back end financing. This is a good sign that more lending will be cut back as credit continues to tighten as all the fraud that has occoured over the past few years comes to light. 80 Billion dollars lost on housing loans. That is a big number, and if you look at the ARM reset chart from Credit Suisse you will see there are plenty more resets to go. Housing is absolutely overpriced. The value isn't there. People thought that they would get rich rapidly, it was a speculative mania, now it has ended, and now there is going to be much pain. The prices went up 100%+ in Virginia Beach. The salaries didn't. Now it's time for pain. These cities are still spending like there is no tomorrow as well, even though their tax base is starting to shrink. The housing bubble blogs and such laid out these facts in 2004. This isn't a secret, and if you didn't realize it was going to happen you are unintelligent. I think many realtors fall into this category. A little research would easily show what would happen, especially when people use teaser rates to base affordability on the assumption of possible refinance later. Who would use an ARM loan when rates are at record lows? That is just insane. Just remember to say NO to any sort of gov't bailout. Greed got us where we are today, time to let the greedy suffer. Got 20% down? - Sat Jan 19 2008, 12:18

Prices still have 40% or more to go down. Look at the median incomes, and median home prices. Count on the easy lax lending standards of the past few years not being there, and count on having to come up with a down payment. Don't forget all of the inventory, much of it high end, that has been built over the past few years and the owners will be ejected out since they can't really afford it. Maybe they used ARM loans, maybe they were in a business related to housing that has taken a nose dive. Do research on the housing bubble, it's real, and has a number of years of more pain. Don't listen to this garbage about the market returning in a year. That is just the NAR trying to fool the sheep. - Wed Jan 9 2008, 11:55

I think Hampton Roads has overpriced itself. The jobs in the Hampton Roads region aren't generally challenging or good. Most of my younger friends (Most make $60K - $130K salary range) are looking to leave the area. One is halfway done with his Google interview now. The area doesn't have the jobs to support the housing costs, and even the "better" jobs tend to not be as good or challenging as similar positions in other markets. For instance, a friend that works for a well known well respected gov't contractor has noticed that employees in the offices outside of Hampton Roads (Boston, Seattle, etc) are threated better. They have more fun at the other offices. Hampton Roads isn't a good place for young people. The old people will talk about attracting young talent, but the companies don't want to pay. They just want the young people to buy their overpriced homes. So with this in mind, I think Norfolk will be a declining market if it isn't already. They are building tons of apartments, and most of them will probably be at the top of the market -- which isn't what is needed. - Sun May 11 2008, 07:26

If prices are high, and interest rates are high, then nothing sells. There is a market equilibrium. The only reason prices were high and homes were selling is because banks/mortgage brokers were setting up people with huge loans (that they probably won't be able to repay). That drove the prices up. Think playstation 3 before Christmas. A $600 game console selling for $3000, but instantly worth $600 after Christmas again.

No a Realtor didn't mistreat me, I've just been watching what they have been saying for the past few years during the mania and realize they are just used car salesmen, but unfortunately people turn to them for financial advice. - Wed Apr 9 2008, 06:57

Uh, they want the commission from the home sale so they can pay last months rent on their leased automobile and keep the repo man away for another month. Amazing how Realtors(tm) claim renting is for loosers, but are quick to rent high end pretentious automobiles. - Tue Apr 8 2008, 23:00