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Fred

  • 29 Helpful Answers
  • 20 Answers
  • 1 Question
Home Buyer

should i wait or buy now?

Fred answered:
the short answer is wait. i love the fact that all the brokers are still sitting here saying now is a great time to buy. here's the bottom line: mortgage rates for conventional loans are finally getting into the affordable category BUT prices still need to fall further for several reasons - (1) expenses as you point out are headed north, (2) rental rates are coming down (NYC vacancy is approaching 3% which is double the last ten years, and most likely moving higher), and (3) it's still cheaper to rent than to own. when someone tells you that building equity is better than paying rent but they fail to quantify how you are "building equity" when prices are falling, is frankly, not thinking nor talking straight with you. It gets worse. If you are in the market for a non-conventional loan (think homes above $800k or so), rent vs buy is totally upside down the further up the price point you go - like maybe by 50% of more - which means prices need to come down significantly. Finally, if you are sitting on cash today why in your right mind would you buy real estate when you can buy a fixed 12% yield on corporate bonds for example? or preferred shares that yield 10%? or some battered DOW component like UTX, HON or GE that will surely make you more money in the next two years than declining real estate? real estate is a waiting game at this point. i recall some folks who posted on this list in particular last Fall that prices had bottomed, that real estate was a great buy who now sit here and say that prices may in fact fall further but it's still a good time to buy. Desperation is getting so thick but it needs to get worse before pulling the trigger on real estate makes any sense. Think 30% to 50% down from the peak in early 2007 as a good entry range. buying should ALWAYS be cheaper than renting because that's the point of having equity exposure and home price appreciation can not be the only source of return on equity - if there is any lesson learned - it is that your return must be, at least in part, current. - Sun Jan 4 2009, 14:45
Fred answered:
head down to your favorite pizza joint and enquire about a hard money line o credit for the other 15% you need to even talk with a senior lender......nice credit score but if you make 100k a year and only have 20k to put down, your debt service coverage probably won't make it two minutes in underwriting. - Sat Jul 26 2008, 16:05
Fred answered:
The only reason for failing to have sufficient reserves is that the board failed to convince the owners of the merits of a prudent reserve (or fears another confrontation around the issue). Co-ops are all about the personalities so treat the data point as an indication that the building is not managed well. Furthermore, if it is an older building, you can be rest assured that you will see special assessments. The lack of reserves indicates a resistance or an inability to cover periodic CAPEX. did you request a list of delinquent owners? this is a huge and growing problem with manhattan real estate - particularly in newer, less occupied buildings. - Fri Jun 20 2008, 08:55
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