Sal,
There are 13 months worth of inventory according to an article yesterday in the LVRJ(not seven, as someone on this thread said). I'm willing to see other stats, but when Toll Brothers proclaims a possible 20% further reduction in housing,
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/04/real_estate/toll_depression.
I take note. Toll is about the only RE company that didn't get thoroughly massacred in this market. They have a billion in cash on hand and are savvy. They also had a strong presence in Las Vegas. I believe strongly now that this market is going to crash and burn further--exactly in the amount it overblew up. Housing prices are going to fall----and basically, materials in the house will be worth more than the home itself for some time. Intuitively it sounds impossible--but so were housing prices going up 45K a month. If you can't get a damn good price on your dream home, wait it out!!! We got more perfect storm stuff coming...alt a loans resetting, mortgage rates increasing, banks being bailed out by the government (which means they don't want to lend money and getting a mortgage is going get tougher) rising inflation on gas and food prices, put that together with an economy in a recession.
I believe that if you bought a house today, you'd lose equity. And...I'm willing to get back on this thread if I am wrong and admit it.
- Wed Jun 4 2008, 13:12