Gdn Bear

Happy new year! It has now been TEN months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over previous 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 (-10.3% M2M growth) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-5.8% M2M growth)
April 29th: 21 (-19.2%) sales for an average of $263 per sf (+0.4%)
May 30th: 40 (+90.5%) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-0.4%)
June 30th: 52 (+30.0%) sales for an average of $268 per sf (+2.3%)
Aug 1st: 53 (+1.9%) sales for an average of $275 per sf (+2.6%)
Sep 1st: 57 (+7.5%) sales for an average of $272 per sf (-1.1%)
Oct 4th: 54 (-5.4%) sales for an average of $273 per sf (+0.4%)
Nov 1st: 38 (-29.6%) sales for an average of $276 per sf (+1.1%)
Dec 1st: 59 (+55.3%) sales for an average of $264 per sf (-4.3%)
Jan 1st: 63 (+6.8%) sales for an average of $280 per sf (+6.1%)

Number of sales and average price per sf had nice monthly increases. In fact, both number of sales and price are at their 10-month highs. Market has really picked up.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 (+5.6%) listings for an average price of $306 per sf (-2.2%)
April 29th: 67 (-10.7%) listings for an average price of $299 per sf (-2.3%)
May 30th: 55 (-17.9%) listings for an average price of $327 per sf (+9.4%)
June 30th: 46 (-16.4%) listings for an average price of 328 per sf (+0.3%)
August 1st: 40 (-13.0%) listings for an average price of $319 per sf (-2.7%)
Sep 1st: 40 (0%) listings for an average price of $310 per sf (-2.8%)
Oct 4th: 32 listings (-20%) listings for an average price of $318 per sf (+2.6%)
Nov 1st: 26 listings (-18.8%) listings for an average price of $317 per sf (-0.3%)
Dec 1st: 20 listings (-23.1%) listings for an average price of $331 per sf (+4.4%)
Jan1st: 12 listings (-40.0%) listings for an average price of $330 per sf (-0.3%)

Listings are plummeting....no one is in the selling mood anymore? Perhaps this area has survived the rocky parts of the housing bust. Anyone who wants to move to this area will probably not see too many good deals anymore.

What are your thoughts? - Yesterday, 09:50

It has now been NINE months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over previous 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 (-10.3% M2M growth) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-5.8% M2M growth)
April 29th: 21 (-19.2%) sales for an average of $263 per sf (+0.4%)
May 30th: 40 (+90.5%) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-0.4%)
June 30th: 52 (+30.0%) sales for an average of $268 per sf (+2.3%)
Aug 1st: 53 (+1.9%) sales for an average of $275 per sf (+2.6%)
Sep 1st: 57 (+7.5%) sales for an average of $272 per sf (-1.1%)
Oct 4th: 54 (-5.4%) sales for an average of $273 per sf (+0.4%)
Nov 1st: 38 (-29.6%) sales for an average of $276 per sf (+1.1%)
Dec 1st: 59 (+55.3%) sales for an average of $264 per sf (-4.3%)

OK, I officially can't figure out this market. After a huge drop in sales the prior month, this past month saw 59 sales...the highest number since I started tracking this data! I was very surprised the downward trend reversed itself. Of couse, all that activity came at a price. The average price per sq ft dropped to their levels back in March through May period.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 (+5.6%) listings for an average price of $306 per sf (-2.2%)
April 29th: 67 (-10.7%) listings for an average price of $299 per sf (-2.3%)
May 30th: 55 (-17.9%) listings for an average price of $327 per sf (+9.4%)
June 30th: 46 (-16.4%) listings for an average price of 328 per sf (+0.3%)
August 1st: 40 (-13.0%) listings for an average price of $319 per sf (-2.7%)
Sep 1st: 40 (0%) listings for an average price of $310 per sf (-2.8%)
Oct 4th: 32 listings (-20%) listings for an average price of $318 per sf (+2.6%)
Nov 1st: 26 listings (-18.8%) listings for an average price of $317 per sf (-0.3%)
Dec 1st: 20 listings (-23.1%) listings for an average price of $331 per sf (+4.4%)

Listings continue to drop like a rock. There has been an average of 20% drops each month over the past three months....and that isn't annualized. I'm sure the long time San Ramon agents could verify this, but my guess is that San Ramon hasn't seen inventory rates this low since the housing boom was in full effect. The average listing price saw a nice bump this month to its 9 month high of $331 per sf. Low inventory and increased consumer confidence is likely contributing to this increase.

What are your thoughts? - Tue Dec 1 2009, 06:27

It has now been eight months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over previous 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 (-10.3% M2M growth) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-5.8% M2M growth)
April 29th: 21 (-19.2%) sales for an average of $263 per sf (+0.4%)
May 30th: 40 (+90.5%) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-0.4%)
June 30th: 52 (+30.0%) sales for an average of $268 per sf (+2.3%)
Aug 1st: 53 (+1.9%) sales for an average of $275 per sf (+2.6%)
Sep 1st: 57 (+7.5%) sales for an average of $272 per sf (-1.1%)
Oct 4th: 54 (-5.4%) sales for an average of $273 per sf (+0.4%)
Nov 1st: 38 (-29.6%) sales for an average of $276 per sf (+1.1%)

HUGE drop in number of sales. In fact the largest drop since I have been tracking the San Ramon market. The price per sf has ticked up slightly and is now as high as it has been since March. Seems like multiple forces are contributing to the slow down: School year has started, tax credits are drying up, and inventory is extremely low (see below).

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 (+5.6%) listings for an average price of $306 per sf (-2.2%)
April 29th: 67 (-10.7%) listings for an average price of $299 per sf (-2.3%)
May 30th: 55 (-17.9%) listings for an average price of $327 per sf (+9.4%)
June 30th: 46 (-16.4%) listings for an average price of 328 per sf (+0.3%)
August 1st: 40 (-13.0%) listings for an average price of $319 per sf (-2.7%)
Sep 1st: 40 (0%) listings for an average price of $310 per sf (-2.8%)
Oct 4th: 32 listings (-20%) listings for an average price of $318 per sf (+2.6%)
Nov 1st: 26 listings (-18.8%) listings for an average price of $317 per sf (-0.3%)

Listings are also dropping like crazy. Two months in a row with nearly 20% drop in number of listings. In fact, there hasn't been an increase of listings since march. Perhaps this is the bottoming process, or it could just mean the San Ramon market is dead until spring/summer next year.

What are your thoughts? - Sun Nov 1 2009, 07:07

Stephen,

I am still here. Very interesting discussion. This thread has taken on a life of its own!

I will be making my monthly update in a few days. - Wed Oct 28 2009, 07:02

RE Analyst,

All your points are valid. Don't disagree at all. We considered all of that when we made our purchase.

In our particular case, we paid less per sf than what what you were quoted by Shapell and Centex. Also, as I mentioned, the builder gave us over $50,000 in upgrades....that offset most of the costs we incurred to create the home we really wanted.

The landscaping will be an additional cost, but we factored that into our budget....we still came out ahead. Oh, we don't have an HOA.

The one area I don't necessarily agree with is your point about interest rates. It doesn't matter if you buy new or existing homes, you take the same interest risk rate whenever you lock-in your rate. In our case, we were able to lock-in a better rate by waiting for our home to be built. It could have gone the other way, but sometimes you get lucky sometimes you don't. - Sun Oct 11 2009, 08:50

Michael,

I won't share the specific details of my transaction, but I can tell you I didn't pay anywhere close to $273 per sf. In addition, the builder threw in about $50,000 of upgrades.

At the time, we were looking at both new construction and pre-existing homes. We also looked at short sales and foreclosures. What we found was that the real bargains on foreclosures all were snatched up by investors before they ever hit the market. So any foreclosure we saw was either overpriced or in crappy condition.

Many of the short sales were priced aggressively, but that was only to attract multiple bids. We were not interested in getting nto bidding wars just to be at the mercy of the lenders.

Most of the pre-existing homes for sales seemed to be priced higher than what the market conditions held. If you look at the data I provided below, there is still a large gap between what homes are listed for and what they actually sell for. There were homes that the owner bought in 2006 for $1.3MM thatt were probably worth $800K today, but losing that much equity was too much too stomach for many homeowners. I completely understand why they would be relucantant to drop their price....it was a real loss for them,

Which brings me to the new construction. We found that the developers (lennar, Brookfield, Shapell) clearly understood the market and were interested in moving inventory. We were able to get a better deal on a brand new home (which allowed us to pick the upgrades we wanted).

I recently had a conversation with the builder and they said they are no longer offering the kind of deal we received. Price of the homes are higher now and they are not throwing in any upgrades. A few months ago, they had a significant amount of inventory but now they have sold out of that release. Everything they sellltoday won't be ready until next year....so they are not in a big rush to cut deals.

Not sure if this helps or not. - Fri Oct 9 2009, 06:26

Hawkeye,

The data I pull is based on a certain segment of home sales and listings within San Ramon. I pull all SFRs (not condos, townhouses, etc) between the size of 2,500-3,500 sf. I picked that range somewhat randomly. At first, I was looking to buy a home around that size. It doesn't consider the entire market, but it does represent a certain buyer.

As it turned out, as the market continued to drop, we ended up buying a new construction home around 4,000 sf. More home than we originally planned, but we feel like we got a decent deal (and why not buy new when the prices were lower than most of the pre-existing homes). - Sun Oct 4 2009, 19:05

It has now been seven months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over previous 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 (-10.3% M2M growth) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-5.8% M2M growth)
April 29th: 21 (-19.2%) sales for an average of $263 per sf (+0.4%)
May 30th: 40 (+90.5%) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-0.4%)
June 30th: 52 (+30.0%) sales for an average of $268 per sf (+2.3%)
Aug 1st: 53 (+1.9%) sales for an average of $275 per sf (+2.6%)
Sep 1st: 57 (+7.5%) sales for an average of $272 per sf (-1.1%)
Oct 4th: 54 (-5.4%) sales for an average of $273 per sf (+0.4%)

The first dip in number of sales in 5 months. As expected the market is starting to slow down. Prices seem to have stabilized somewhat...no material changes over the past 3 months.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 (+5.6%) listings for an average price of $306 per sf (-2.2%)
April 29th: 67 (-10.7%) listings for an average price of $299 per sf (-2.3%)
May 30th: 55 (-17.9%) listings for an average price of $327 per sf (+9.4%)
June 30th: 46 (-16.4%) listings for an average price of 328 per sf (+0.3%)
August 1st: 40 (-13.0%) listings for an average price of $319 per sf (-2.7%)
Sep 1st: 40 (0%) listings for an average price of $310 per sf (-2.8%)
Oct 4th: 32 listings (-20%) listings for an average price of $318 per sf (+2.6%)

Wow...major drop in number of listings this month. Less inventory has resulted in increasing prices. Selling season seems to be over...but have we seen the bottom yet? Only time will tell. - Sun Oct 4 2009, 08:11

It has now been six months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over previous 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 (-10.3% M2M growth) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-5.8% M2M growth)
April 29th: 21 (-19.2%) sales for an average of $263 per sf (+0.4%)
May 30th: 40 (+90.5%) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-0.4%)
June 30th: 52 (+30.0%) sales for an average of $268 per sf (+2.3%)
Aug 1st: 53 (+1.9%) sales for an average of $275 per sf (+2.6%)
Sep 1st: 57 (+7.5%) sales for an average of $272 per sf (-1.1%)

Now four straight months of positive growth in number of sales but price per sq foot sees a small dip. It will be interesting to see if sales dip as we get into the school year.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 (+5.6%) listings for an average price of $306 per sf (-2.2%)
April 29th: 67 (-10.7%) listings for an average price of $299 per sf (-2.3%)
May 30th: 55 (-17.9%) listings for an average price of $327 per sf (+9.4%)
June 30th: 46 (-16.4%) listings for an average price of 328 per sf (+0.3%)
August 1st: 40 (-13.0%) listings for an average price of $319 per sf (-2.7%)
Sep 1st: 40 (0%) listings for an average price of $310 per sf (-2.8%)

Listings remained flat at 40, but the asking price has seen a decline. With less inventory, you would expect to see price increases. Guess the buyers that wanted their kids in SR schools already bought. As we get into the Fall and Winter, there will probably be a drop in potential buyers. - Tue Sep 1 2009, 22:03

It has now been five months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over previous 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 (-10.3% M2M growth) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-5.8% M2M growth)
April 29th: 21 (-19.2%) sales for an average of $263 per sf (+0.4%)
May 30th: 40 (+90.5%) sales for an average of $262 per sf (-0.4%)
June 30th: 52 (+30.0%) sales for an average of $268 per sf (+2.3%)
Aug 1st: 53 (+1.9%) sales for an average of $275 per sf (+2.6%)

Now three straight months of positive growth in number of sales and price per sf continues to rise. Can this trend hold?

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 (+5.6%) listings for an average price of $306 per sf (-2.2%)
April 29th: 67 (-10.7%) listings for an average price of $299 per sf (-2.3%)
May 30th: 55 (-17.9%) listings for an average price of $327 per sf (+9.4%)
June 30th: 46 (-16.4%) listings for an average price of 328 per sf (+0.3%)
August 1st: 40 (-13.0%) listings for an average price of $319 per sf (-2.7%)

Listings continue to drop like a rock....current listings nearly half of what it was at the end of March. However listing prices suddenly declined from last month. This is somewhat surprising to me considering the inventory of homes is so much less. Has demand waned? Approaching the end of the buying season? - Sat Aug 1 2009, 09:49

It has now been four months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over past 3 months):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 sales for an average of $262 per sf (or 5.8% decrease since 3/2)
April 29th: 21 sales for an average of $263 per sf (or 0.4% increase since 3/31)
May 30th: 40 sales for an average of $262 per sf (or 0.4% decrease since 4/29)
June 30th: 52 sales for an average of $268 per sf (or 2.3% increase since 5/30)

Have we turned the corner? Has the San Ramon market bottomed out? There has been healthy increase in number of sales over the past 2 months and the prices are on the uptick. My guess is that it is a combination of the buying season and lower inventory.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 listings for an average price of $306 per sf (or 2.2% decrease)
April 29th: 67 listings for an average price of $299 per sf (or 2.3% decrease since 3/31)
May 30th: 55 listings for an average price of $327 per sf (or 9.4% increase since 4/29)
June 30th: 46 listings for an average price of 328 per sf (or 0.3% increase since 5/30)

Listings are way down, which assumes those that had to sell their homes have done so (for the most part). Asking prices are up with less competition in the area.

Just my thoughts....feel free to chime in with your own. - Tue Jun 30 2009, 22:46

It has now been three months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over past 30 days):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 sales for an average of $262 per sf (or 5.8% decreease since 3/2)
April 29th: 21 sales for an average of $263 per sf (or 0.4% increase since 3/31)
May 30th: 40 sales for an average of $262 per sf (or 0.4% decrease since 4/29)

Prices seem to have bottomed around $262/sf but volume of sales has picked up. Number of sales nearly doubled from previous month.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 listings for an average price of $306 per sf (or 2.2% decrease)
April 29th: 67 listings for an average price of $299 per sf (or 2.3% decrease since 3/31)
May 30th: 55 listings for an average price of $327 per sf (or 9.4% increase since 4/29)

Number of listings down, but (whoa!) what a jump in list price.....over 9% increase from prior month. What is going on? My guess is a combination of less inventory on the market, an influx of buyers that are looking to get their kids into school in the fall, and overall better consumer confidence.

Draw your own conclusions. My prediction is that the market will stay hot until the school year begins. Not to mention there will be a flood of foreclosures coming in the next 6 months which will likely drive prices down further. - Sat May 30 2009, 07:23

It has now been nearly 2 months since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over past 30 days):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 sales for an average of $262 per sf (or 5.8% decrease)
April 29th: 21 sales for an average of $263 per sf (or 5.7% decrease since 3/2)

Sales continue to slow, but the price seems to have stabilized for now.

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 listings for an average price of $306 per sf (or 2.2% decrease)
April 29th: 67 listings for an average price of $299 per sf (or 4.6% decrease since 3/2)

Does lower listings mean lower inventory or are we in a lull before all the foreclosures hit? Listing prices are trending down rapidly. - Wed Apr 29 2009, 06:45

It has been nearly a month since I posed my original question. I figured I would revisit my unscientific survey using redfin. Let's see what has happened since March 2nd:

Again, I looked at the reported sales and listings of homes in San Ramon in the 2,500-3,500 sf range:

Sales (over past 30 days):
March 2nd: 29 sales for an average of $278 per sf
March 31st: 26 sales for an average of $262 per sf (or 6% decrease)

Listings (current)
March 2nd: 71 listings for an average price of $313 per sf
March 31st: 75 listings for an average price of $306 per sf (or 2% decrease)

Two observations: (1) The actual sales price continues to be significantly lower than the average listing price.....wishful thinking on sellers part? and (2) Actual sales prices are dropping faster than the drop in listing prices.

Just wait until all the foreclosures reach the market. - Tue Mar 31 2009, 17:45

A lot of great responses....but most of them are just to tell me why my question isn't valid.

Come on...it is just a game. Play along! Take your best guess. BTW, I didn't ask where the bottom was....I asked where do you think it will go within the next 6 months.

And price per sq foot is a reasonable number to look at within a market. It is just the same as looking at comps. They won't necessarily always work, but how else do you evaluate a property? - Mon Mar 2 2009, 11:10

Newbuyer...

Thanks for your response. You bring up a great point about the increased conforming limits. However, I wouldn't agree it will have the impact you think it will.

There will likely be a flood of foreclosures starting in the May/June timeframe as most banks have halted all new foreclosures (google Mr. Mortgage for great data). Not sure how many will be in SR specifically, but the overall bay area market will be hit hard. That's why I think we are no where near the bottom today. - Mon Mar 2 2009, 08:33

Newbuyer....where do you think the floor is? - Mon Mar 2 2009, 08:09

50% is very risky. What other debt do you have? Is it included in your 50% figure?

45% (which includes mortgages, taxes, insurance, PMI, HOA, plus all other personal debt) is what I would consider the max amount.....in my opinion. - Wed Jul 1 2009, 09:25

Good price. Which model is this? - Fri Jun 26 2009, 07:41