Happyrenter

97405 is a pretty big zip code area... I don't think there are any houses in Eugene that would meet your criteria (well, not yet), but there might be in the Goshen area. If by "20 miles west" you mean the area along Lorane Highway or Territorial Highway, that's another possibility, but I don't recall seeing any "newer" houses there in this price range.

If your downpayment is 20% or less, there is a very high probability that you will be under water within a year if you buy now. If your job is super stable, and you plan to stay put for a long time, this might not be a problem. Note, however, that even a 5% price reduction on a $175K house will save you more than $8,000 tax credit. With tons of foreclosures that will be hitting the market later this year and in 2010, we are likely to see price declines well above 5% in Eugene... just something to think about. Best of luck in your search! - Tue Aug 25 2009, 22:46

FYI, here is a link to the map of Eugene city parks:

http://www.eugene-or.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_2…

The table on the right shows which parks have dog play areas. If I was a dog person, I would consider buying within a walking distance from one of these parks. Wayne Morse and Amazon parks would be my top choices.

P.S. I would not want to live in Bethel-Danebo and Far West Eugene if they were giving those houses away for free. Not walkable due to sprawling development patterns, lack of mixed-use development and low population density, and too far for daily biking to downtown and UO. If you don't mind driving everywhere (I've heard people from California do that), then it may not matter to you. - Thu Aug 20 2009, 10:41

If you want an honest advice on buying a house in Eugene from somebody who does not have an inherent conflict of interest (i.e. is not a realtor), here is my advice: don't do it.

First, Eugene is not in the same place in the real estate collapse cycle as the rest of the country. Locally, residential real estate prices peaked in the 2nd-3rd quarter of 2007, or a year later than the national peak.

Second, Eugene housing prices peaked at a higher level than the median price nationally. This is important, because historically Eugene single-family home prices have been lower than the national price until around 2006. If we were to revert back to the trendline today, the prices would fall by over 20%.

Third, the prices in Eugene did not fall as much since the peak as nation-wide prices. Nation-wide, prices are off by 32% from their peak in 2006, while Eugene prices are off by only 15%. Since local real estate prices have grown by more than the national average during the bubble years, it stands to reason that they will fall at least as much as they have nationally if not more. So again, we talking a roughly 20% downward adjustment here.

Then, there is an issue of housing affordability. The Department of Housing and Urban Development considers housing affordable if the median price does not exceed the median household income by a factor of three. In Eugene, the ratio stands at about four right now (possibly more if you figure in falling incomes).

This basically means that the prices have to decline by about 25% in order for an average family to be able to afford a house in Eugene. I think one can make a compelling argument that there will be no sustainable recovery in housing until the average family with good credit can afford to buy a place to live with at least a 20% downpayment and a monthly mortgage, insurance and property tax payment that is comparable to a monthly rent for a similar house. Right now, it is much cheaper to rent than to own in Eugene. There are a lot of houses for rent out there, and many of them are owned by people who can’t sell them.

Finally, there is the macroeconomic picture. I think it is fair to say that Oregon in general and Eugene in particular have not fared well in this recession. In terms of the official unemployment rate, we are second only to Michigan that has been hit hard by the collapse of automobile manufacturing. The real unemployment rate in Eugene (called U6 in BLS parlance) is closer to 18%. I suspect that most of these 18% of Eugenians will not be buying houses any time soon, and in fact stand a risk of losing the houses they have now to foreclosure if the economy does not pick up.

The foreclosures are another big unknown here. In every housing clump on record, foreclosures had peaked before the prices bottomed out, and there is little reason to think that things will be different this time around. In the first half of 2009, foreclosures in Lane County doubled from the same period last year. Whether the government efforts at loan modification will have any impact here remains to be seen. Too many people are too far under water to be helped by loan modifications. Government studies show that the vast majority of people with loan modifications end up defaulting anyway.

Another macroeconomic trend is population. Historically, the population of Eugene grew by about 1% per year. Last year, the growth slowed to about 0.6%. It is reasonable to expect that if the local unemployment rate remains higher than the national average for an extended period of time, population growth locally will slow even further or turn negative. This will have an impact on the housing market by reducing the demand for houses and increasing the supply, thus putting further downward pressure on prices.

If you are new to Eugene, the best course of action is to rent for a couple of years, learn more about the community and the neighborhoods, get a better feel for different schools in the area (if you have kids).

Whatever you do, best of luck and welcome to Eugene! Grossly overpriced real estate market and high unemployment rate nonwithstanding, this is still a great place to live. - Thu Aug 20 2009, 10:23