Ty Davis

I first want to make sure that you know that I have never travelled to this area (except to Harold's BBQ near the federal pen, which I believe is close to this), lived in this area, or even knew it was real until today.

However, I did decide to check around and find pertinent information for the discussion. I do believe I did just that from the US Census for 30316 which is the area code for this area. Read the following...scary...statistics from the 2000 census;

20.7% of all families below poverty level
Median household income - 32,500 (shouldn't have moved much considering area)
11.3% Bachelor's Degree (national average 25%) (meaning good for now because of renting, but won't necessarily create new wealth/equity due to people in area are not advancing skills, etc.)
Grandparents responsible as caregivers 54.4%
73.2% of all homes built before 1969 - no new growth in 40 years? yikes...

Good luck. - Sat Nov 1 2008, 15:55

http://www.fultonassessor.org/Forms/Datalets.aspx?mode=sales…

Don't know about the upcoming sale, but the previous sale was in May 2007 for 139,990.

If for whatever reason the above link doesn't work, google Fulton County Tax Assessor and it's the first link. Then, have your way with going through public record. - Sat Oct 25 2008, 09:22

Best deal = home you can afford.

Now that my smart #$% remark is finished, I can tell you there are deals to be made in every market. If you were to walk in and look for $100 per square foot as a deal, you could overpay for a home in Dahlonega but it would be one hell of a deal for a penthouse condo in downtown*. Write down 20-30 addresses in an area you'd like to buy in and look at the tax assessor records to find out what the cost per square foot those people paid. Find the mean of those and knock off 30% and see if you can find something in that price range. Hell, in the financial industry as it sits today, you could probably knock off 50% and still have an offer accepted by a bank.

*I just looked at a penthouse condo in Buckhead at the new building next to the Flying Biscuit (maybe Terminus? I can't remember) which was 4000 Sq feet and listed for $4,000,000. $1000 per square foot. $24,000 monthly for a 30-yr mortgage. Makes me wonder how long it will take for them to unload. If they lowered that price to $250 a foot, maybe we're talking, but not for the average bear, that's for sure. - Tue Oct 7 2008, 16:09

One more thing...

"In answer to your second post regarding PMI, you'd actually have to put down 20% to avoid it. "

This post is incorrect. PMI is only for when the loan is greater than 80% of the home's appraised value. When the loan value becomes 78% of the home's value (unless considered high risk, which I believe it changes to 76% or 77%), the lender must automatically cancel PMI unless you're late on the payment, etc. - Tue Oct 7 2008, 16:00

This post should not be considered a response to the original question of whether or not ATL is declining, but rather to the other posts this thread.

First and foremost, as far as if the Atlanta market will ever bounce back, most people say yes because, "you need to buy low and sell high." That's a great one-liner for people, but isn't sound advice. Because the nation is in a funk does not mean homes will make a comeback anytime soon or ever. Luckily, ATL is not a one-industry market such as Detroit, etc., and has a good mix of everything from financials to manufacturing which means Atlanta is much more stable as a home market and won't probably see double-digit single-month declines as some places have seen. HOWEVER, that's not to say that ATL will make money in 3-5 years because the truth is, no one knows. The bandwagons will start once the ATL and national media comes out with a, "Home prices have gained .1% YTD" and everyone will think an end has come and RE is the investment of the future once again. Be wary of blanket advice, because what goes down doesn't always come up. Lehman Bros., GM, Delta, and the state of Michigan are all good examples of lost causes whose glory days are long gone.

Good luck with your down-payment and be careful of homes with $200+ price per square foot...ATL isn't quite that kind of market yet. - Tue Oct 7 2008, 15:54

Here's some math to hopefully help you with your decision. Let's say that you and partner make 150,000 (exactly) annually with no dividends, etc. That would put you in the 28% tax bracket, with total taxes paid of approximately $30,700 federal and $8,900 state. If you were to buy a $400,000 condo in that area, you're looking at approximately $5,600 in property taxes, and 23,400 approx. in interest in year one for the mortgage. That gives you approximately 29,000 in deductions from year one alone, amounting in a federal savings of almost $8000 from the feds and $1600 from GA. So, your net monthly payment on a home is $1600 after taxes are figured in. Even if you sell your house for the exact same amount that you bought it for in two years, you come out $20,000 ahead of where you are if you rented a place that costs the exact same amount monthly ($2400). Then, factor in that you built almost 20,000 in principal during that same timeframe, and you'd come out way ahead than you would in the rental market. Remember, statistics show that 98% of wealthy people own their home and the average homeowner in the US is $150,000 wealthier than the average renter.

Assumptions
150,000 annually
400,000 house @ 6% interest ($2400 monthly payment)
35.000 millage rate - Mon Oct 6 2008, 12:43