Heldmyw

Tell me, Bob. With the downturn in housing values expected to continue downward for the next 12-18 months at least, why would you say it's a perfect time to buy? - Mon Feb 11 2008, 09:50

Thank you Gary! Your knowledge is most welcome, and your help appreciated sincerely!

My observations only provide an amateur's anecdotal data for the type of home I am interested in.

Example: HUD accepted an offer of $61,000 on a home that was appraised (yes, I know, not AV or SEV) at $114,000 early last year. This particular home is currently offered "retail" at $76,000 (MLS # 27119067).

Do you see why I find myself in a minefield? And this, without even considering what the next year to 18 months will bring!

What say you, oh wise ones? How can a poor (qualified) buyer not get his fanny shot off? Or is it just too superheated for those of us not willing to play craps with our home investment dollars? - Sun Feb 10 2008, 14:51

As a buyer, I will tell you why I'm "dragging my feet"!

In my area, prices are plummeting, and houses are coming on the market faster than popcorn pops.

Some are good enough deals, but many are put up by desperate sellers who have not yet come to grips with the reality of the new conditions. The house that they counted on to provide half their retirement isn't going to provide a third now, and they're digging in like it's a siege.

You can't blame them, either. This change came on so quickly it's a shock, but the reality of home valuation is a fact they cannot deny. "If only I'd sold 8 months ago", is a common plaint.

Seeing an asking price drop $30 or $40,000 in a month is commonplace. REO's and HUD offerings are going wild. It's rather like waiting for a 'sale' at a retail store. I can wait for the savings. Maybe I'll buy next month... or the month after.

After all, how much corporate owned property can any given institution hold before discounting it deeply, cutting their losses and moving on? And the bitter attitude of banks and so on isn't helping. They're annoyed and sometimes downright hostile!

Inclusions in ads like (quote) "Buyers Must Be Pre-approved By Countrywide Home. Corporate Addendum Supersedes Local Contract", do not particularly dispose me to deal. Before you start making rules, mister bigshot, you might want to make sure there's a game.

Also, has the market bottomed? If I commit now, will I watch the value of my new home drop another 10%? 20%? That doesn't sit well.

Finally, the character of entire neighborhoods is changing. There are a lot of foreclosures, and some angry losers are taking out their frustrations on their ex-properties. Smashed windows, destroyed kitchens, landscaping, air conditioners and even garage doors torn out by the roots and sold and suddenly a peaceful, idyllic street is looking more like Baghdad...on a bad day.

Will they recover their former glory or become low-end ghettos populated with Bumpuses and meth labs?

Technically, it is a buyers market. Realistically, there are pitfalls enough to scare the willies out of us poor folk who are just trying to find some decent shelter with a potential upside, while not losing our backsides! - Sun Feb 3 2008, 08:57