Will

1. If you plan on using your home as a home and not an investment or ATM

2. If you plan on staying put for a while and would like security knowing your price for living is fixed and you wont have to worry about a landlord selling your residence, raising prices, or forcing you out

3. If you can find a place that, after the tax breaks, would be similar to the cost to rent a place of similar size

Those are 3 reasons now would be a good time to buy. If you don't plan on staying put, don't like to stay put for too long, or can find a place to rent that is cheaper then I would advise renting. - Fri Apr 18 2008, 13:09

George-

In no way was I saying that you got a bad deal or that Potomac Club is not a nice community. I really liked the community myself, especially the rec center, I just think that in general it's overpriced because you're paying for the image.

If you got a Saratoga at 299k you did good, fwiw. I really liked those floorplans myself. The 2 thigs that weighed on me were the tight stairs and the number of them. Other than that, my specific situation didnt suit having the nice hand rail above the stairwell as I have a 1 year old and just didnt feel safe with her crawling around it.

My point was more along the lines of encouraging the poster to look elswhere and not lock in to one place. I did so, and ended up losing my deposit on the M/I Home because I found something I liked much better and fit my budget better.

As far as the commute goes, I take the VRE at Rippon and it takes me 10 minutes to get to the station and about hte same coming home. There have been days where its taken me 20-25 minutes coming home, in which case I cursed the day I bought further south (sarcasm).

I bought a Caldwell floorplan by Lennar for 265,000 and got 15,000 in closing costs. Meanwhile, M/I still has my old unit up for sale and recently dropped the price to just under 300k. At the time of contract, I paid 70K less for my Lennar home as opposed to the M/I, and even after price reduction I got 5K more in closing and saved about 35K in price with Lennar. On top of that I got a 30 year fixed rather than an I/O that was being pushed by M/I to get me qualified. Yet another dealbreaker.... - Fri Apr 18 2008, 12:47

I was under contract with M/I Homes for a Barrington Unit and owund up disliking the floor plan. The overall community is nice, however, there are so many homes in that neighborhood that it will be congested. You are also paying a premium to live in the community, so keep that in mind.

I spent 2 years looking at homes from Fredericksberg to Fairfax and will be glad to offer you any advice or answer any questions regarding Melody Landing.

I ended up going about 2 miles south on Rt. 1 to Melody Landing in River Oaks and bought a Lennar Home. The quality of construction is better in my opinoin, and the prices are also better. The floorplans are much more like a traditional townhome as opposed to the significant number of stairs that you have to go up for one of the top level 2 over 2 condos. The 2 over 2 condos seem like a gimmick of the housing bubble, for which many people will shy away from when things return to normalcy (again, just an opinoin).

Some other perks about Melody Landing are that its still very early in the development of the community, and as they add onto it with the pool and rec area, tot lot, etc. the property value should increase. There's also a new golf course being built just behind the community which is being designed in part by Jack Nichlaus. Harbor Station, which is a very upscale development complete with a new VRE Station, is also going in over the next few years. Check out harborstation.com for news and info regarding this development, as it will have an impact on Melody Landing and other communities inside of River Oaks.

Over the long haul I think Melody Landing would be the better investment, however, don't just buy a home for the investment of it. I like the community better because the construction is more diverse than your typical row upon row of townhomes, the costs suited me more, and the floorplan I bought was better for me. Potomac Club is obviously a nice community, I just think its not worth the premium you pay especially considering the incredible number of units that you will be competing against when you go to resell your place.

Lastly, don't listen to all these realtors on here about bringing someone with you for new construction. #1 - If you dont bring a realtor, bargain an additional 3% off the price as its built into the list price for new construction. #2 - There's nothing with a new home that you can't handle yourself if you just do the research and read the contract.

Below is a link to the Lennar Homes at Melody Landing, I would at least take a look to make sure you are getting what you want in a home. In this market you have time to look around, so I would do it. - Fri Apr 18 2008, 11:31

Frank (below) has some good advice, and his blog is definitely worth a read if you're jumping into the market.

To answer your question specifically, if you're wanting to try and protect yourself against further decline, do some research and see what similar properties were selling for in 2003. That's really going to be a good reference as it was pretty much the beginning of the bubble.

Also, check out the property sales data at the PWC web site (below). Knowing what a place sold for ove rhte previous few sales will help you get a grip on where prices were coming from and what may be acceptable to a current occupant.

You can also do a sales history search for a specific neighborhood to get an idea of some of the comps (upper right corner of the site). - Fri Apr 18 2008, 12:34

If you're looking at Powell's Landing then you should definitley check out Melody Landing at River Oaks. Both Brookfield and Lennar are offering a ton of incentives, and hte Lennar homes are very well constructed.

Weigh all your options when looking. Melody Landing is a pretty good bargain for new townhomes. Craftstar also has some nice homes in the back of Powell's Creek/Powell's Landing depending on what you are looking for. - Fri Apr 18 2008, 12:28

In all honesty, if you can wait to relocate then do so (unless you want to rent for a bit). If you want to be a market timer, then I'd say later in 2009 will be a great time to buy and be very close to bottom.

Let's be honest about the market in Woodbridge and PWC in general: It ain't going up. Right now you're seeing a lot of incentives like seller paid closing costs, and in the case of new construction a lot of discounted or free upgrade options. This, however, will not change as the numbers are still quite staggering in favor of further price decline. For example, Prince William County (which encompasses Woodbridge) currently has just over 5500 active listings with about 2800 (or 50%) listed as reduced in price. In other words, people are continuing to have to lower prices to sell homes. The other big statistic is the inventory level. Currently, PWC has about 11 months of inventory, which represents excess supply. This again will have a downward force on prices and shows that waiting truly will be the better option.

Below is a link to a blog devoted to Northern Virginia Housing, I would advise going as you will be able to obtain advice from folks that dont have a financial stake in telling you one way or another. There's no realtors as far as I know, so you wont get the cheerleader pitch that now is a great time to buy.

ON the other hand, if you really want to move, have a good downpayment, and plan on staying put for a while, its not really a bad time to buy. Just be prepared to watch the value decline a little over the next year or so and remain there until about 2011 (when I think we'll actually start to see true appreciationg in this area again).

BTW, on the link be sure to scroll down and look for "a decade of march sales". Harriet's info is very on point and very informative, as are the comments associated with them.

Don't fall victim to Realtor jargain, do your own research! - Fri Apr 18 2008, 12:24