Tim

Yes, I have to agree with Lisa. It's great to be optimistic, but judging from activity in San Diego (early June) the only pick up in activity has been lender owned sales. I understand that in Riverside County in March, REO's made up 56% of all sales!

Personally, for So. California, I think the bottom will come in 2010. I hope I'm wrong! - Wed Jun 4 2008, 11:27

If the San Diego market is any indication, I would say it's a sure bet!

I found a great real estate blog that really tells it like it is for San Diego. If interested, visit:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou - Mon Jul 2 2007, 16:32

Brad & Ute's answers are the best so far. The facts are that the bulk of adjustable loans will adjust in the first quarter of 2008.

So, it may be mid-2009 before a bottom is in place.
http://www.sandiegorealestatelibrary.info/san-diego-real-est… - Mon Oct 1 2007, 07:27

Brad & Ute's answers are the best so far. The facts are that the bulk of adjustable loans will adjust in the first quarter of 2008.

So, it may be mid-2009 before a bottom is in place.
http://www.sandiegorealestatelibrary.info/san-diego-real-est… - Mon Oct 1 2007, 07:26

The reason in San Diego CA and many other 'hot' markets of the 2000's is that San Diego California real estate market saw its high point in the summer of 2005.

Since then, home values have been in decline! This is fact and NOT opinion! At this point, many San Diego neighborhoods have had double digit value declines!

From the local San Diego Union-Tribune newspaper dated 3-18-2007, here are a few selected median home value drops just since February 2006 for resale homes:

Coronado 50%, La Jolla 15.6%, Pacific Beach 15.8%, North Park 15.8%, Ocean Beach 19.1%,San Carlos 19.1%

Keep in mind, the average San Diego median home price is over $550,000. So, a 15% decline is a $82,500 loss! If you purchased last year, even with 20% down payment, your San Diego home could now be worth MUCH LESS than the amount of your mortgage!

With my take on the background of the current San Diego real estate market expressed, my opinion on the immediate future is that we are now in a seasonal sales pick-up. In a few months, I believe that the downward trend will re-establish itself and not only only continue, but is likely to accelerate as the popular adjustable rate mortgages from the last few years come up for their first adjustment.

Yes, San Diego housing values could easily be down 25 to 30% from their summer 2005 values by the end of 2007.

Based on these facts, only a fool would believe the industry line of it's always a good time to buy real estate.

For some great 'insider' articles on the San Diego real estate market, which I believe will apply to any of the hot real estate markets of the past five years.....visit:

http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou

http://www.downtown-san-diego-real-estate.com/san-diego-real…
http://www.brokerforyou.com - Mon Jul 2 2007, 16:28

Not sure of percent drop..but, it is large! Palm Beach County currently has a 23.9 month inventory of homes on the market. Average days on the market is four to six months. For the best take on the housing bubble, I would visit:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou - Mon Jul 2 2007, 16:18