Rouriel Noubini

>>Right now, our research indicates a 30% spread between fully burdened home ownership costs in
>>comparison to equivalent monthly rents. Until that spread drops to below 10%, prices will continue to fall.

Can anybody give some detail figure about rent vs. own in Hot Peninsula and S. Bay? How much the spread in those areas?

>> the bottom is Livermore, then Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, Danville, Blackhawk, and ultimately Alamo
>>(same pattern runs Southward from Walnut Creek). What happened in Dublin is very much a pre-cursor to
>>what will happen in San Ramon and if it's already in Danville, that should tell you even more.

How about Pleasanton? Why Pleasanton is much better than Dublin and Livermore? Shall San Ramon be compared with Pleasanton or Dublin? - Yesterday, 10:37

>>Rouriel, he's saying "another" 5 - 10%, meaning 5 - 10% less than the current prices. If you normalize for the >>summer bubble and the effect of what people thought was an expiring tax credit, another 5 - 10% puts the >>market back onto trajectory for the expected correction (continuing back toward a baseline of pre-bubble >>prices adjusted for wage growth.

If that is true, we shall revisit low of spring slump. Any possibility much lower than that? - Wed Dec 16 2009, 10:31

Hawk:

Can you give some detail of "Rent vs. Buy" figure in penny? - Wed Dec 16 2009, 10:27

>>Double-digit unemployment will push more owners into foreclosure, further destabilizing the housing market >>and pressing prices down another 5 to 10 percent, said Flint.

However, Mr Flint did not make it clear comparing with what that "down another 5 to 10 percent". If it is comparing with Now, that 5% drop will be put house price back to the lowest point we have seen mid of this year. Any idea? - Tue Dec 15 2009, 15:58

Hi guys, stop bullying Hawk. Maybe most people do not agree with him, but he is a honest person. Correct or not, we shall appreciate his input. Many of his point are valid although some are a bit biased. - Thu Nov 12 2009, 19:02

Did anyone remember this property was ever listed on market a couple of months ago? If not, it could be bought by cash at court doorstep. That can explain why it was sold for such a low price unless there are a lot of damage inside the house. I know quite a few investors and groups of investors are doing this for living. - Mon Nov 16 2009, 16:36

As always, timing is everything. But the more important lesson is that blindly hanging on with a bullish or
bearish view is a flawed strategy. Every investment has a window of opportunity; unless that window can be
identified, leaving the money invested is somewhat like gambling. That said, the window can be relatively
long—sometimes spanning months or years. - Fri Oct 30 2009, 17:23

“Exactly who made Bernadine Shimon think that she could buy a new house shortly after declaring bankruptcy and losing another home to foreclosure? The American taxpayer, that’s who. Without a Federal Housing Administration willing to guarantee a $125,000-plus mortgage, this Denver-area schoolteacher’s recurring ‘dream of homeownership’ could not come to pass. Shimon’s down payment was a tiny 3.5 percent. This single mother is so strapped that she had to cash in her retirement savings to come up with the 3.5 percent. Her case was cited in a New York Times article about, not surprisingly, the sad shape the FHA finds itself in.”

“Much of the blame for the housing bubble-then-bust goes to these government agencies. Kenneth Donohue, inspector general of the Housing and Urban Development Department, seemed to be shaking his head. ‘What does the FHA think it is doing by asking only 3.5 percent?’ he asked. (FHA is part of HUD.)”

“But committee Chairman Barney Frank of Massachusetts insists that these mortgages are needed to ‘keep prices from falling too fast.’ Thing is, we can’t support real-estate values with shabby lending practices. That’s what got us into trouble.” - Fri Oct 30 2009, 15:18

Good news. It has already gone down 15%. It was listed 1.2mil, but recently just sold for 1.03mil. - Fri Oct 30 2009, 14:50

coffee break time

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Suru6GthhkI/AAAAAAAAGr…

Which one is you? - Fri Oct 30 2009, 11:21

HawkEye,
Please keep posting your Analysis , they are really very informative. Reaction of Folks lie you who already missed boat is natural. And also it is the fact there is upswing currently in Windemere Market so they have a point to make .

"If housing market recovered why are Builders begging congress to renew the Home buyers credit . Why there is a need to keep interest artificially low why not let the free market forces work . I think no market can remain immune from broader economy and people are realizing about the stock market at that it has good to far too soon."

The entry point to housing market was first half of this year. On average it was down 10 to 15% right after crash. Right now global stock market has bounced back to pre-crash level. Housing market also recovered most of lost ground. There is no doubt a correction will come. But that will be only a correction not another crash. You shall take a dive to jump into either stock or housing market first half of this year. Too sad, you missed both of them. But, be patient, you deserve a second chance, because you are a PROFESSIONAL. - Fri Oct 30 2009, 10:50

Mike/Hawk and whoever else that have bought but thinks Windemere will keep going down. Enlighten us with your home research experience and price. We'll all track the price of those homes and see if it keeps going down. If it does, then you can prove us all wrong. All the other stuff you're saying doesn't offer any help to the buyers here in the forum - Fri Oct 30 2009, 10:37

OMG, bitter buyers or jaded Realtors, to be or not to be. - Thu Oct 29 2009, 18:32

Another joke:

It should be no surprise that the steep drop in home prices means a realtor has to sell three $200k homes to make as much money as he once made selling one $600k house. Add to that fewer sales, and it turns out a lot of realtors are moonlighting or leaving the business. The Wall Street Journal wrote on this topic (subscription required). - Thu Oct 29 2009, 17:25

Nice read Michael. It is plausible predicting 10% drop in next few years. - Wed Oct 14 2009, 10:29

>>> Every offer for those new houses sell in San Ramon, there is one Cash Offer exists.

Can someone confirm this claim? - Wed Oct 14 2009, 08:39

For a 2,500 sqft house, you can not simply compare its per sf price with a 4,000 one. The fair market price is maybe $280/sf for 2,500 sqft but $250/sf for 4,000. A 4,000 sqft house in Winderemere has been sold at low as mid-800k early this year. It was very close $200/sf at low point. But it is no way to get a 2,500 sqft house for $500k. - Fri Oct 9 2009, 15:18