The CNN article made some very valid points. The market has been artificially propped by tax credits from the government, as well as artificially low interest rates. Some things of concern include the end of the tax credits (April 30th deadline), the predicted rise in interest rates (at least 1%), as well as the coming flood of foreclosures, of which most of them haven't even hit the market yet. (According to some reports, only 4% of homes in NJ have actually been foreclosed, with another 9-10% on their way.)
All this being said, I don't know if the market will drop another 10-15% in these areas, but certainly, home prices will not rise anytime soon. Locally, we're seeing stability in some markets, but I could see some more decline if a huge number of foreclosures do hit the market.
(On a seperate note, I follow local market conditions and foreclosure activity regularly on my website at www.jerseycoop.com. Feel free to visit for more information.)... more
You are correct there is no crystal ball and you will likely get a number of differing opinions on this topic. But here is my 2cents worth. Generally speaking sale prices will not stabilize until the supply of condos on the market is reduced. I checked Middlesex MLS to see if your observations matched the statististics. This is what I found.
Over the last 12 months there have been 12 sales in Waterford with an ave list price of $247.4k and an ave. sale price of $236.7k
during the preceding 12 month period (Aug 07 - Aug 08) there were 16 sales at an ave list price of $253.7k and an ave sale price of $$247.4
During the preceding 12 month period (Aug 06-Aug07) there were 19 sales at an ave list price of$262.5k and an ave sale price of $254.7
The statististics show that there has been a steady decline over the last three years in the number of units sold, and the average list/sale prices. Currently there are 52 condos/townhomes on the market in all of South Edison (08817). Over the last three months there have been 19 closed properties which is an average of 6.3 per month. This implies that there is just over an 8 month supply of condos on the market. Since 5-6 months supply is considered a balanced market there is still an oversupply of properties that needs to be whittled down before we see prices stabilize and then turn around. When will that happen? My guess is likely not this year. Perhaps mid-2010 at the earliest.... more
If I could predict the future, I would not be working as a REALTOR! If you ask 10 different "experts" you will get 10 different answers. To date I have not seen any evidence that prices have started to stabilize. The rule of thumb is that prices have been declining by 1% per month. When that decline will slow down and stabilize is anyone's guess. The only way that you know you have hit the bottom of any market is usually after the fact.
My guess is that prices will continue to drfit downward for at least the remainder of this year. On the other hand interest rates are much more volatile than home prices and are impossible to predict. Although rates have been rising somewhat from earlier this year, thery are still at relatively low levels. Keep in mind that for every 1% increase in interest rates, that erodes approximately 9% of purchasing power. Another way to say it that is that a 1% increase in interest rates over current levels offsets a further 9% decline in home prices.
If you are ready willing and able to purchase and you do not plan to sell in the near future, go for it as soon as you see a property that meets your needs.
Prudential New Jersey Properties
3 Amboy Av
Metuchen NJ 08840
732-494-7677 x417 Office
Gil.Lopez@PrudentialNewJersey.com e-mail... more
Yes Jacs, we should be able to find you something suitable. You can reach me via my profile or via email@example.com I'd be happy to send you a listings that may meet your criteria and we can see those that are most interesting. The convergence of great prices and low interest rates has created an uncommonly good buying opportunity. And if you are a first time buyer, there is a $8,000 Tax Credit that might apply that was written into the Stimulus Bill.
I'll send you more info on the Tax Credit as well if applicable. I'll watch for your email and we can get started. I am a member of both the Middlesex and Garden State MLS' so my reach is broad, and covers the commutable communities to NYC.
Search and connect at www.feenick.com... more
Big heavy spending government is at least part of the answer Yog. Taxes are increasingly becoming a big issue for home sellers in various communities in New Jersey. I've got several listings myself, buyer very interested in the property and then everything comes to a standstill when they evaluate the property taxes. It seems to me something has to give, but with the direction the nation as a whole is going, it is tough to see it happening.
On a positive note, if you focus your efforts on a community with highly rated schools, then your taxes will provide the benefit of a good education. And NJ does have some very fine schools - you can learn more about NJ schools by visiting my website www.feenick.com and clicking on School Information (link below)
There are some communities that provide better values than others - in Somerset County, depending on your price point, I would highlight Bridgewater, Bedminster, Warren, Watchung and Basking Ridge. I see you are writing from Edison, I can help you there as well as other Middlesex counties including Piscataway, Middlesex and Dunellen.
Good luck and best,
Search and connect at http://www.feenick.com... more
Hi Dash. This same question was asked just this morning regarding Monmouth County. No one has a crystal ball and can see what the market will hold. All we can give is our personal opinions on the subject. Personally, the prices may drop a little, but you're not going to see prices at 300k dropping to 150 or 200k. Now is still a great time to buy with low rates and good prices.
Jillian Mason-Sales Associate
Orange Key Realty
60 East Main St
Freehold, NJ 07728
732-586-5488 (Direct)... more
If it meant that banks would start loaning out more money it would be great. banks are not loaning money even to the good people with good credit and a money to put down and that is limiting sales and keeping the housing market down. Fannie and Freddie need to use better judgement in the upcoming years however by shutting out good borrowers no one is being helped. Use the bonusses and mega salaries of the ceos and use that to help the people they have hurt.... more
That's the big crystal ball question. Just remember- if we have not reached bottom, it will take just as long to come back to current prices as it did for the prices to fall. In other words, it could take 3-5 years for today's prices to return after the bottom is hit. Then who knows what interest rates will look like.... more
Edison has 3 zip codes, 08820, 08817 and 08837. If you drive around, you will see many big houses in 08820, so the price is high for bigger house, whereas 08817 and 08837 have many smaller houses, like 3br ranches, condo/townhouses, so price seems to be lower, and it make sense for smaller houses to list lower, right?
If you come to Somerset, you will see even cheaper price. Like in our Forest Gate townhouse, you can get one for only $250k. But then, when I went to Philly work, I had to drive to Edison Train Station first to park the car there then take train to Trenton, it is a bit inconvenience. But, if, say, you work at Rutgers or Johnson and Johnson, Somerset is as convenient.... more
So, Lucy, you think those houses listing at Trulia not sold were NOT priced right? I don't think so. Apparently they were priced right since those listing with Trulia or MLS are all priced by licensed realtors who passed rigorous courses and exams; they are professionals with access to MLS system, how could they NOT price a property right at the first place? I do not think any listing agent want to fool around and waste their time and marketing cost to market a property they price wrong. How do you think?
So, apparently, "price right" is a default situation here; we are not talking about "for sale by owner" house where many greedy sellers may over price their home.
So, your second criteria "advertised" may become one factor. But, this house was NOT advertised by Trulia, at least I could not find it on Trulia. So, I am wondering "where it was advertised"? If I were a licensed realtor, I would be very eager to know this info because if there is a better media, I would be able to serve my client better, how do you think?
Apparently, the person posted the sold messages on craigslist is very creditable as you can see there are many of them http://cnj.craigslist.org/search/rfs?query=stn+just&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max On the other hand, as a researcher, I need to document all the verifications from second source. I could verify most, but some I need to count on you enthusiastic Trulia realtors, if any.
I thought licensed realtor like you, Lucy, all have the power to check if the property is sold or not in your finger tip, why would you want me to drive all the way to the property to see the for sale sign? Is there any difficulty on your end?
Where is Deborah? Somehow, she did a great job last time. Kind of miss her :-) No wonder Trulia voted her #1 Truelia realtor. May be she got too busy answering hundreds of thousands of questions.
By the way, I think Trulia should provide a service for propsective buyers to be able to verify if a property has been sold or not, so that they won't running around to see the for sale signs and playing phone tags with listing agents. How do you think?
I can guess one reason USA Today said realtor.com lost 10% of visitors in 2007 was because many houses on realtor.com have been sold, yet it does not remove them, nor indicate them. So, hundreds of thousands of buyers not only playing around with lots of emails and phone tags, but waste lots of time. A modern website should not waste visitors' time, or visitors will not visit soon or later.... more