http://www.trulia.com/voices/profile/Home_Buyer-San_Ramon_CA-138742/The latest answers submitted by Nrv to questions asked on Trulia Voicesen-ushttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Market_Conditions/What_do_you_think_-46405Answer by Nrv: Lenin - As you know, prices have dropped from the late 2005 peak, but they aren't inline with affordability fundamentals - i.e. housing shouldn't be more than 4 times your income, aka, if you make 100K, you can afford a 400K home, assuming minimal other debts. Even this 4X income level is a bit aggressive, but I'm willing to concede that level because San Ramon is a nice town with good schools and weather. The average income in San Ramon from 2007 is $116,108, according to http://www.bestplaces.net/city/San_Ramon-California.aspx. According to Trulia, the average sales price from Jan-Mar 08 is 721,189. So, we are now at a 6.2 times income to housing cost ratio. In order to return to affordabilty fundamentals, average home prices would need to drop to $464,432, which is another 35% drop from now. I know others may disagree with the above, but it's just my opinion, that's all.Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:59:56 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/Is_San_Ramon_Windermere_still_overpriced_or_is_a_g-36885Answer by Nrv: Ann - There has been a recent discussion of your question recently. See the following link for both sides of the view: http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248--Tue, 20 May 2008 14:30:12 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/Why_are_homes_closer_to_Alcosta_Blvd_in_San_ramon_-34049Answer by Nrv: While Barb cites an article that states that the housing crisis is over, this is very much a minority viewpoint. There are numerous websites that one can visit which state that the housing crash is NOT over. A good one is patrick.net. Yes, the pro-Barb people may say that such "doom and gloom" websites don't account for the fact that real estate is local, but Barb's cited article is not a local article either.Sat, 10 May 2008 02:02:16 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/I_need_an_update_on_homes_in_SAn_Ramon-32576Answer by Nrv: Darrell - Where did you get such a price listing? Was this based on recent sales or is this something you compiled yourself?Fri, 25 Apr 2008 14:32:22 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Market_Conditions/Is_it_time_NOW_to_buy_a_home_Or_are_prices_going_-32721Answer by Nrv: Agreed on the very good analysis below. I've posted this before, but I believe it's worth repeating: A lot of realtors have posted that "it is a great time to buy" in places like San Ramon. Yes, prices have dropped from the late 2005 peak, but they aren't inline with affordability fundamentals - i.e. housing shouldn't be more than 4 times your income, aka, if you make 100K, you can afford a 400K home, assuming minimal other debts. Even this 4X income level is a bit aggressive, but I'm willing to concede that level because San Ramon is a nice town with good schools and weather. The average household income in San Ramon from 2007 is $116,108, according to http://www.bestplaces.net/city/San_Ramon-California.aspx. According to Trulia, the average sales price from Jan-Mar 08 is 721,189. So, we are now at a 6.2 times income to housing cost ratio. In order to return to affordabilty fundamentals, average home prices would need to drop to $464,432, which is another 35% drop from now.Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:57:04 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Market_Conditions/Is_it_time_NOW_to_buy_a_home_Or_are_prices_going_-32720Answer by Nrv: Posted this before, but I believe it's worth repeating: A lot of realtors have posted that "it is a great time to buy" in places like San Ramon. Yes, prices have dropped from the late 2005 peak, but they aren't inline with affordability fundamentals - i.e. housing shouldn't be more than 4 times your income, aka, if you make 100K, you can afford a 400K home, assuming minimal other debts. Even this 4X income level is a bit aggressive, but I'm willing to concede that level because San Ramon is a nice town with good schools and weather. The average household income in San Ramon from 2007 is $116,108, according to http://www.bestplaces.net/city/San_Ramon-California.aspx. According to Trulia, the average sales price from Jan-Mar 08 is 721,189. So, we are now at a 6.2 times income to housing cost ratio. In order to return to affordabilty fundamentals, average home prices would need to drop to $464,432, which is another 35% drop from now.Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:55:33 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248Answer by Nrv: Newportfiji - I'm quite aware that most realtors would say that it is a great time to buy since their payday is based on the commissions generated from home sales. However, as your final sentence stated, I wanted to see if there were any objective, San Ramon realtors out there who were willing to say that the data I presented is rational and that home prices will continue to drop in San Ramon while this bubble deflates. So, far no local realtors have touched my question. To them, it must be a great time to buy.Mon, 14 Apr 2008 17:06:56 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248Answer by Nrv: I guess all the local San Ramon realtors didn't want to touch my question...they all must think it's a great time to buy and the data I presented in my original question is a bunch of bunk. I'll be happy to wait out this housing mess until 2009 at the earliest.Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:32:30 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248Answer by Nrv: Jia - I think we'll have to agree to disagree on the 4x formula, but thanks for all your replies. As for the realtors, I certainly know that the majority will say it is a great time to buy (see the original question), but I'm curious to see if there are any local realtors who agree in any way with the points addressed in my original question.Fri, 11 Apr 2008 13:02:49 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248Answer by Nrv: Jia - I think you indirectly agreed that the home price to income ratio should be a 4 X multiple per your last sentence. You looked at it from the perspective of incomes increasing rather than home prices dropping, as I suggested. So far, the discussions have been from local residents and out of state realtors. While those inputs to my original question are certainly appreciated, I'm eager to hear from local realtors and their thoughts on my question.Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:09:47 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248Answer by Nrv: Jia and Khazeem - Thanks for your views. Jia, you mentioned some factors about the racial demographics of the Bay Area, and how there are many Asians who move up into larger homes after saving money. While that may be the case, I still don't see how this justifies the home prices being about 6 times the average income in San Ramon? Let's look at a few data points: 1. In the year 2000, median household income in San Ramon was $95,856 and median home price was $428,700 - this is a 4.47 home price to income ratio (START/EARLY STAGES OF BUBBLE). 2. In 2005, median household income in San Ramon was $104,600 and median home price was $944,800 - this is a 9.03 home price to income ratio (PEAK) see http://www.city-data.com/city/San-Ramon-California.html ; and 3. In 2007, there is about a 6.0 home price to income ratio (I found it as 6.2 and you found it as 5.72, so let's settle on 6.0). With these data points, the correction is already taking place, and there is still another 25-35% drop needed to get down to a 4 to 4.5 home price to income ratio.Thu, 10 Apr 2008 22:45:11 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/A_great_time_to_buy_in_San_Ramon_Not_according-30248Answer by Nrv: Lance, Thanks for your reply, but what other data would you say I should look at? I understand what an "average" means in point #1 and #2. By the way, I don't understand what you're saying in #3. According to the link I provided, the $116,108 amount is the average household income in San Ramon. The point I'm trying to make is that based on the average sales prices of homes in San Ramon relative to average household incomes, there is a 6.2 X income multiplier to the average sales price of a home, when affordability calculators show a 4X income multiplier to the avg. sales price of a home.Thu, 10 Apr 2008 12:50:08 PDThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Foreclosure/_Older_San_Ramon_vs_Newer_San_Ramon_which_is-19712Answer by Nrv: It seems like the answers to this question have gotten a bit off track. From the replies thus far, there seem to be equal amounts of pros and cons to property appreciation in older San Ramon vs. newer San Ramon. So, in my situation, I have up to 1 year to purchase a home in San Ramon. All the signs (at least in my opinion) seem to show that prices will continue to drop by about another 5% this year. Does anyone objectively think that there will be a turnaround this summer, or at least a flat-lining on prices this year in San Ramon, in the 700-850K price range?Fri, 25 Jan 2008 08:12:04 PSThttp://www.trulia.com/voices/Foreclosure/_Older_San_Ramon_vs_Newer_San_Ramon_which_is-19712Answer by Nrv: Thanks to all of you who provided answers to my question. I will be starting the job in San Ramon in early March, but I will have up to 1 year to purchase a home through my new company's relocation program. I think it might be best to wait for a few months to see if prices continue to drop. Basically, I get the impression that in San Ramon prices will probably drop another 5% or so by the end of 2008, with the bottom hitting mid 2009 or so. Do you think that is a fair assessment of the San Ramon housing market? To Johnny H. - Are the builders/resellers really considering offers 10% below asking price at this time, or is that just an educated guess on your part?Wed, 23 Jan 2008 09:15:50 PST