Question Details

Chad, Other/Just Looking in Tacoma, WA

So does anyone see the end to the current market conditions or am I alone out here with the wolves?

Asked by Chad, Tacoma, WA Sat Jun 7, 2008

I have had offers for my condos and they decide to wait a bit. I have clients bringing their friends over to show their new home, only to return saying that their dad said not to invest in real estate. I hear people at the bar talk about real estate dropping more and more. Has society forgot about supply and demand? Really if I could call and ask God if he was making more land... What would he say. I have clients getting excited and waving around their pre-approvals and getting denied the loans. Every agents answer out there is to drop price. Is that good ethics when reality is, your giving it away. I see and hear no educating the public out there. It is a great time to buy, That is it. As realtors and developers shouldn't we be fighting the bad press which is totally biased, three months behind and taking advantage of those who are not informed. So my question to you is when do you see it rebounding. People would rather rent than own...

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It looks like we have already seen the bottom. The media and press thrives and prospers on delivering news of gloom and doom. The real estate market has been the poster child of bad publicity for over a year- for good reason. Itlooks like times are changing- slowly, but improving dramatically. Real Estae Is Local- What goes on in Vegas, stays in Vegas...
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 8, 2008
I think that we are at or near the bottom. I don't know how much lower prices can go at this point.
Web Reference: http://getprequalified.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 8, 2008
Expectations truly define trends in markets. A big part of the problem is that the doom-and-gloom scenarios are a self-fulfilling prophesy. The more you hear that times are bad, the worse they get.

I'll add that it's not that the press is bias, but they certainly are irresponsible--and most who write for the "real estate desk" are also unqualified. In all the media reports on the current problems in the market that I am aware of, only one has mentioned that the market downturns are local phenomena, not market-wide--and the mention was so brief and lacking in context that it likely went right over the heads of most.

The consequence of this combination is that my market, San Antonio, TX, has experienced a slow-down that goes beyond the effect that the closer scrutiny lenders are giving to buyers should have had. Prices have not declined--they met their projected mark in '07, and the city is #2 on the Forbes list of most recession proof cities. Yet, people still ask me whether the market is bad, and seem skeptical when I reply that it is good.

The consequence in markets that have experienced a down-turn will likely be a bottoming out below any reasonable "adjustment" and a relatively quick rebound to a more reasonable level of "adjusted" values after the general economic climate improves. I'm optimistic about the prospects for markets in areas wherein the down-turn was related primarily to speculation and high levels of participation by unqualified buyers in sub-prime loans, but skeptical about other markets. Those markets wherein outsourcing and layoffs associated with the current energy crisis compound the problems related to the consequences of the speculative boondoggles will likely decline further and take longer to recover.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 8, 2008
The pendulum will absolutely swing back, always does. Ask any Realtor who has been in the business more than 10 years (or depends on their local market) ... find an old timer and they have been through many swings. It always swings. The Austin, TX perspective is a bit different in that we are one of the healthiest markets in the country yet we have some of the same "bar talk", "dad speak", and/or economic sitting back going on as well.
Web Reference: http://www.tnpblog.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 7, 2008
Oh Chad! I know just what you mean! Even my son had to listen to "doom and gloom" while playing in the neighborhood park!!
I do think the NAR is working to combat some of the bad press out there..and honestly..I do have buyers right now. Investors are buying up the REO and Foreclosures and will do quite well once the market stabilizes.
As far as "when will it rebound" I think It will slowly stablilize and then level off. My professional opinion is that it will then slowly recover.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 11, 2008
Chad,
My perspective from Palm Beach County, Florida and in particular Jupiter Tequesta Florida, is that the market has approached it's low. In many communities the tide has actually turned and prices and inventory are stabilized. I agree with others who have commented that if you focus on the doom and gloom that is what will appear. Something similiar to all the press and talk about the $5-$10 per gallon that is being projected. It is important to remember that most people do pay their mortgages on time and did not succumb to a greedy market. If your home is the best priced and the best "looking" you have the top chance of getting it sold.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 11, 2008
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