Market Conditions in 30005>Question Details

Ocean Hill, Both Buyer and Seller in Santa Monica, CA

I am moving to Alpharetta. I don't want to buy now because I feel that prices will continue to go down.

Asked by Ocean Hill, Santa Monica, CA Tue Apr 29, 2008

How low will prices go down and when is the bottom of the market?

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Answers

69
Hey Lisa,

You began the ad hominem. And if you're going to describe yourself as "smart" and "professional" you probably actually should do a better job spelling. I didn't bring up all your errors - just made sure I cited you properly. Feel more than free to point out all of my spelling errors. It won't take you long.

I'm not sure why you are taking this so personally. I got on my soap box after reading a bunch of industry b.s. from people trying to make a buck while pretending to have an interest in the well-being of the home buyer. Here's a prime (and concise) example from Carlos:

"Man,

Read this: http://www.northfulton.com/Articles-i-2008-04-10-171546.1121… stop hesitating, and pull
the trigger."


As to the rest of your post, here are some other points:

"If the agent is professional and has ethics they qualify the buyer. Qualifying the buyer doesn't only mean qualifying whether they "can" purchase a home but whether they should be purchasing a home at this point in their life."

Notice the "If" - does that have anything to do with the current housing mess or the point I am trying to make?


"both the buyer/seller and I benefit."

I was asking who benefits, you or I, if a buyer buys in a declining market. The answer is that you benefit. It won't really affect me much. But the buyer may very well NOT benefit if the market tanks and something happens and the buyer can no longer make the payments or must sell for some reason. Do we have to go into that?


"Something else I'd like to point out is that you seem bothered by the fact that I get paid for my hard work. Of course I benefit when my client buys/sells a house...it's called earning a living."

I'm not bothered at all by your earning a living. I do think your commission level is excessive, however. I would venture to say I'm in the majority there. I will say that in the current market, sellers' agents may very well deserve what they earn. But now that agents no longer have a monopoly on info, commission levels are beginning to come under attack, no?


"For some reason people like you have this crazy notion that my hard work shouldn't be compensated....When was the last time you felt someone should give a portion of their "paycheck" to you for bad service or a bad product?"

When did I say that your hard work shouldn't be compensated? I really have no idea what your fourth paragraph even means.


"I'm sick of people like you bad mouthing an industry when it affects many good people. Yes, there are bad agents...but there are great agents too."

Why do you think so many people are critical of your profession? Why do you think real estate agents are generally held in such low regard? Why are they so frequently viewed as dishonest, greedy and opportunistic? Why not spend some of your time being the voice of reason and objectivity on boards like this instead of attacking people who dare to stand up to the NAR company line constantly spewed out?


"Also, even in a terrible market where we don't know when the bottom will happen, it is still a great time for some buyers/sellers to move. It depends on their individual circumstances."

Finally a realtor who admits that the market is terrible. Exactly what should happen here. And I don't particularly disagree with that statement.


"So, why don't you relax and live and let live for a change?"

I'm relaxed. Just fighting the monopoly. But I do think it's funny you chose to end your rant with those words.
4 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 18, 2008
Wow. Not single realtor said that it might be wise to wait, despite all the indications that a major housing correction is on the way. It is not true that Alpharetta was not part of the bubble. Just take a look at the info that Trulia provides. Sure, we didn't see 300-400% appreciation in 7 or 8 years, but we definitely saw prices increase above normal. Check out the rising inventory levels, rising foreclosure rates, DOM, YOY stats, and higher lending standards and you will see that there is no reason to think that Alpharetta will come through this correction unscathed. Housing prices do not work like stocks. Stocks can rise and fall in a day (especially fall). The housing correction will be slow. With current conditions, you can be sure that there will be no spike in prices, and they may even decline, contrary to what those with a vested interest in your money say.
4 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 6, 2008
Alan,

I am a Realtor, and I will be the 1st to tell you that there is much uncertainty in the market right now.
However , I believe, Alpharetta is one of the best communites to purchase in the nation.

Fact is that mortgage interest rates are still at historical lows. As to home prices, it is impossible to say if they will go up or down. For Alpharetta, I believe, some neighborhoods will increase and some will decrease. Too many factors, and Alpharetta is too large an area, to make a blanket statement.

Also everyone's situation is different, and must be considered individually. I had a client recently that purchased in John's Creek. Originally they were looking in the $350,000 price range. They were planning to pay cash. Their situation changed quickly with their financial investments, so we changed their criteria. The home they purchased (bank owned) was for $192,000 cash. They are very happy, since they got a lovely home, and walked in the door with equity of about $25,000.

In fact I have found rentals for a few of my clients recently. This is because, in my opinion, they were not prepared to buy a home at this time. Perhaps I could have convinced them to purchase, but how could I sleep at night. When I accept a client, then I look out for their best interests.

My previous, tounge in cheek, post: "My Crystal Ball says that thing will be changing after the Presidential Election. It says definitely that the economy will be improving or getting worse."
Web Reference: http://www.randyballard.com
3 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jul 12, 2008
Carlos, let's not be disingenuous. Just because you didn't directly solicit doesn't mean it's not in your best interest to encourage buying. Just like the NAR campaign dripping with emotional appeals. The prevailing climate is one of uncertainty and apprehension. People are hesitant to buy, and with good reason. But agents have inundated Trulia, and the mantra never changes. A couple years back it was "buy now so you don't get priced out of the market." Now it's "It's a great time to buy - hurry or you'll miss out!"

Why do you say that prices are low, Carlos? Although not a bubble zone, plenty of places in Alpharetta experienced a runup that far outstripped inflation. You know that. You also should know that no one is predicting a runup now. Unless I''m very much mistaken, t's not going to hurt to wait 6 months to see how things shake out.
3 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
My wife and I moved to the Roswell / Alpharetta area 1 year ago. I / we had the same questions and concerns. My wife and I are Midlife Professionals in Tech and Pharma. We are still renting as we are not sure if we will stay in the area and will not buy unless we can commit to 4 to 5 years here. I do not want to tie up money or worry about renting property if we move out of GA and cannot sell the home.

From my research all the experts say homes will again become a home, not runaway investment vehicles. If you do not have kids and can rent, give it at least 6 months. It will be a buyers market for another year or two and big pops in prices will not happen. The top of the market was 2006 and agents are still using old data to price homes, so if you do buy make sure you are looking at comps from the last few months.
3 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 18, 2008
Terry, you should know that a 1% change in median price means nothing, especially when sale volume is way down. Citing statistics like those makes people distrust real estate agents.
3 votes Thank Flag Link Wed May 7, 2008
Andrea, you said, "Unlike a stock investment, a home purchase is also a place to live. If you compare the cost of renting a home v. owning one with the associated income tax benefits, purchasing a home can make more sense even in a market where there is no appreciation."

The only way this is true is if the rent vs purchase calculations show renting is much more expensive than history or any financial sanity would sustain, which if true, certaintly won't last very long. In nearly all metro markets, the opposite is actually true. Rents did not follow the insane runup in prices of 2002-2006, so renting, in general, is MUCH cheaper when compared to buying in most metro markets.

Linked below is a paper explaining it from the Center for Economic Policy and Research.
3 votes Thank Flag Link Wed May 7, 2008
Hi Victor,
How come you got interested in Alpharetta discussion.
I have to tell you, I have been to this area and looked at some homes. They are a steal compared to the junk in Edison area that we have to pony up 400K to get a starter home. Also the neighborhood is great and edison feels like a slum compared to this. The rents in the region are not too low compared to Edison and the property taxes are a fraction of what we pay in Edison. So, in terms of value, homes in the region are great compared Edison.
But a big negative is that there are too many foreclosures and too much new construction lined up. So, the prices will drift lower or stagnate until the foreclosures and new constructions get absorbed by real buyers and not investors trying to flip
One thing I never understood is that every real estate broker tells that now is a good time to buy interest rates are low. If the interest rates go up, don't home prices come down because of more buyers being priced out? If you are paying interest on a lower amount, you overall monthly payment could actually be lower and get a better tax deduction as a larger portion of your monthly payment is interest
I personally would like to buy when interest rates are over 10% as I know I will get a lower price and the rates will go lower later on, bringing more buyers into the market and push the prices higher.
I think it is insane to say now is a good time to buy because rates are lower.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
Relative to whether prices will continue to drop; yes, they will. Irrespective of the issues we are dealing with regarding the economy-homes that are on the market through the summer that do not sell always take a price hit in the Fall in anticipation of the holidays (Nov/Dec) slowing sales to a halt. That, coupled with the low comps in many areas that appraisers must use, will surely keep prices down for another 6-8 months.

However, in the Roswell/Alpharetta market there are areas that have great deals that investors are spotting and picking up. Also, unlike many markets, people are continuing to relocate here so our demand is not flat and thus buoys the prices somewhat.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jul 15, 2008
Steveand Tascha,

Honestly, this is the "best answer" you can come up with?

"BEST ANSWER
Now is a great time to purchase. Maybe the market will go down however maybe it will go up. To be honest our market has not suffered as much as some other parts of the nation. In fact in some neighborhoods, homes are selling for as much as 95% or more of list price. More and more sellers are pricing their homes correctly for the market."

"Maybe the market will go down however maybe it will go up", so you better buy now? That's your answer? Your "BEST ANSWER"? And you are real estate experts? Are you kidding? There is no one with any sense who has looked at any trends or statistics who thinks the market is going up. So why are you saying people should buy? Could it be out of greed and lack of scruples? Even when the market bottoms, it's going to stay there for a while. Why not advise the OP to wait a while? You base your assertion that now is a great time to buy on the fact that we aren't the Inland Empire or Vegas or Florida or Phoenix? You think that because sellers can get 95% of asking price in the Spring peak selling season that the OP ought to buy now? You make no sense. You haven't answered the OP's question honestly. But you have shown your greed and self-interest.

It's just disgraceful and disgusting. Period.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jul 14, 2008
Wow, going through my previous threads and I somehow missed this one had exploded. I pretty much agree with everything Alan has said. At least people here haven't started attacking the C-S index as useless as they like to in the Chicago area.

The only thing I'd like to add is that you see a lot of people claiming things like "the only way to know the bottom is when its passed".

The comment is true in absolute terms, but in real terms, its not. Home moves are very gradual and very correlated to the previous months moves. Using C-S data the correlation is .94 between previous month and this month. Also, historically housing has grown basically at the rate of inflation, so when prices are climbing at inflation again, you're at the bottom.

Graph below of C-S index vs inflation.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 29, 2008
Sorry, should have been "Case-Shiller"
2 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 27, 2008
@ Lisa and Stephen - Today while driving I was listening to a local radio station which provided the opportunity for a big shot from Harry Norman to respond to the Case-Schiller Index numbers released today. The realtor basically said, citing that the Wall Street Journal opinion piece which Stephen brought up, that we are at bottom now, and that while we might stay at the bottom for a while, everything was going to be heading back up. Lies!!! He was lying and he knew he was lying and he did it anyway out of personal interest. The WSJ opinion has already been cited and discussed. It was written by someone with a vested interest in the quick recovery of home prices nation wide. It is turning out to be overly optimistic, to say the least. That is why people who take the time to educate themselves on what is actually going on object so strongly to real estate agents trying to spin and manipulate for their own gain while pretending to represent the interests of the buyer (or seller). If you want people to have more respect for you and your profession, begin with honesty.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 27, 2008
Alan realtors are justifying their jobs lets not offend them any more. Any person reading the entire chain can visualize the camps formed in the long list of replies and counter replies...
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
It's not doom and gloom sentiment, Stephen, it is caution and realism. The numbers really don't lie. The WSJ did not delve particularly deeply into any technicals, and it was written by someone trying to save his job. You and I just have a different definition of "clarity".
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
Wow. Great article, Carlos Castro. Very convincing. Are you kidding when you cite things like that? Why would you trust the CNN Money source? Did they predict the runup or the bursting of the bubble? Why not cite a source that has some credibility.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Wed May 7, 2008
Joshua,
I have no idea what you mean by REAL value or ACTUAL value.
If I am paying more interest, it is going to the bank and will be passed along to the investors who are buying CDs and other fixed income instruments. But I get to take higher deductions and pay lower property taxes
If I buy a home with higher base price and lower interest, I am paying more to the seller and real estate agent and permanently on the hook for higher property taxes. As long as I am paying the same or lower amount out of my pocket, I can't care less about REAL or UNREAL value
I agree that it is all about demand and supply. As interest rates go up, fewer people will qualify/afford the payment pushing the demand lower. More existing home owners can afford to refinance and will be foreclosed on, pushing the supply higher.
If I remember correctly, it is the jump in rates from 4.5% to 6.5% that set this whole crash in motion, which we are now unable to stop even after taking the rates back to 5%
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 22, 2009
just some back of the envelope math on impact of interest rates on monthly payments, very rough calculations and would appreciate if some of the agents can correct and post more accurate numbers.
Lets assume home price is 400K and 30 year mortgage rate is 5%. 20% down payment will be 80K and loan amount will be 320K. The monthly payment will be around 1,700/month and 20,600/year. assuming 2% property tax, 8000/year brings a total of 28K/year. Assuming a standard deduction of 11,400 it gives them additional deduction of around 11,000/year and assuming a tax rate of approximately 25% gives them additional tax benefit of 3000/year. So their net cost if 25K/year

Now lets assume interest rates jump to 10% and home price falls to 300K. You still have your 80K down payment, so, your loan amount will be 220K and monthly payment around 1900/month and 23,000/year. assuming 2% property tax, 6000/year brings a total of 29,000/year. But since they are paying more in interest, their additional tax deduction will be around 4000/year, bringing their net cost to 25K/year
So, the difference in the amount I am paying out every year is a big ZERO

And some things to consider if we ever live in a world with 10% interest rates on a 30year mortgage
1. 10 year treasury yield will be around 8% and there won't be any reason to invest in stocks or corporate bonds unless both crash to provide potential very safe rewards around 15%
2. Inflation will be through the roof causing govt entitlement costs to explode causing higher taxes
3. There won't be much money left after paying for taxes, food and gas to think about home ownership. So, people will double and triple up. Basically kids, parents and grand parents living in the same home causing housing demand to collapse
There are many, many other very bad outcomes of 10% mortgage rates and none of them are good for housing market.
So, when I assumed home prices will correct by 25% from 400K to 300K, I am being very, very, very optimistic
home prices corrected by 25% on average with mortgage rates being essentially flat.

Obviously this math and my thought process cannot be correct because every single real estate agent says that the biggest reason to buy now is because rates are low. And I mean it.. I really am wrong some where, please correct me.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 21, 2009
On Sun Aug 17 2008 Jim a realtor wrote the following:

"If you are an investor, the best time to buy is NOW. Maybe the market is falling, but it always goes back up. If the market is falling, then bid accordingly. Bid low. Very low. I'm betting that there will be more millionaires made in the next year or so because of this foreclosure cycle. So, if you care to step into the fray, please do so. You can't make money in this market if you are afraid to invest. Good luck"

Well Jim you were dead wrong.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
Prices are going down according to:

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Alpharetta-Georgia/market-…

Ramping unemployment and mortgage rates will reduce the price of homes going forward.

Did I mention that Fulton Co. has exorbitant tax rates?

Prices will stop going down when personal incomes justify the prices paid.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
Personally, I would wait until fall 2009 to consider a home purchase. Foreclosures are still at record levels and frankly, the government has not demonstrated a real understanding of the problem so as to instill confidence in an impending solution. As such, I think you'll see a further 10-15% fall in the price of real estate in this area over the next year.

Having said this, I'll let you determine whether the money you'll save by waiting on the purchase will justify the rent you'll pay in the meantime.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Feb 2, 2009
Randy,

Your attitude seems to be the exception rather than the rule and is much appreciated on this board. Unfortunately, many others in your profession do not seem to have the same scruples.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Jul 14, 2008
BEST ANSWER
Now is a great time to purchase. Maybe the market will go down however maybe it will go up. To be honest our market has not suffered as much as some other parts of the nation. In fact in some neighborhoods, homes are selling for as much as 95% or more of list price. More and more sellers are pricing their homes correctly for the market.
Web Reference: http://www.purrfecthome.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Jul 14, 2008
Tori, did you not bother to read anything in this thread. You are exactly the problem. "Everything sucks, but realtors and home builders say it's the best time to buy ever!!!"

"Is there any doubt that now is a great time to buy?" Uhhh...yes.

Oh, and if I want to get wealthy, I have to buy a house right now??? Dan harps on that.

And of course, it's all the media's fault.

Yet at the end of the presentation we hear, even from a self-interested head of a realty company, that prices are not going to increase until 2010.

Tori, both you and Dan should be ashamed of yourselves.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jul 12, 2008
All you realtors still calling bottom, both locally and nationally?
1 vote Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 11, 2008
Hey Julie,

How can you say you are listing your house now for the same price that you would in ten months? How can you possibly know that?
1 vote Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 11, 2008
This market as changed, but one thing we know the rates will not continue to be this low for long. It is a great time to take advantage of this economy including these low interest. There is also downpayment assistance available for first time homebuyers ranging from $7500 to $20,000. Log onto my website to get further details.
Web Reference: http://www.yourwaytofha.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jul 5, 2008
Stephen,

I'm calling into question the honesty of the Harry Norman big shot and others who knowingly give misleading information. I am not referring to you. I just wish we could get some candid assessments from agents. My whole point to begin with is that agents always say it's time to buy, buy, buy! I'm not saying that there aren't good reasons to buy right now or even that there aren't values to be had. But how about more candor?

Answer this question for me, Stephen: do you honestly believe that from this point forward things are only going to get better in the housing market not only in the Atlanta area, but nationwide, as the Harry Norman guy claimed?

Regards.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Tue May 27, 2008
Stephen,

The housing marking is being hurt by many different factors, fuel being just one of them, as you know.

It's one thing to say that there are various opinions. True. It's another completely to ignore all the data coming out and to call bottom. That is misleading at best.

Last, It would be appropriate to be honest.

Regards, and good luck.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Tue May 27, 2008
"perhaps the Wall Street Journal gives more clarity on the housing market."

Stephen, I thought your point was to give more clarity on the housing market. I don't think that you have done that.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
And though Alpharetta has fared and will continue to fare much better than many other parts of the country, what do you think about this article, Stephen, which includes not-so-sunny news from the NAR and NAHB, the concluding paragraph of which is

"Robert Toll, the colorful chief executive, summed it up this week: "We don't believe this will last forever, although I can give you no indication that the end is in sight, or that the light at the end of the tunnel is not the train coming toward you." ?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/its-official-spring-sa…

Sorry, wouldn't let me put it in the Web References section.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
Hi Stephen,

I'm glad we are speaking of opinions.

I am under the impression that by mentioning the Wall Street Journal you feel more weight may be given to your opinion. Did you notice that the word "opinion" appears at the top of the article you cite? Do you know who wrote that opinion? An REIT manager. Objective? Hardly. I will admit that it is nice to see someone backing up his opinions with some statistics and facts. There are, however, in my opinion, some serious problems with his arguments, specifically his glossing over the impact of foreclosures and tightening lending standards. Then there is this brilliant nugget:

"The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do."

Hmmm...hardly inspiring of confidence to someone hoping to not purchase a home which will then depreciate.

There are some places in the nation where prices may be nearing the bottom - places where the bust began first and that have seen significant price drops already. That does not mean that that is the case for all areas or Alpharetta in particular. No one says that Alpharetta is going to see a bust. A slow decline for another year or two? Possibly. Stagnant prices? Likely. A slow rise? Maybe. But nothing to warrant the "you've got to buy now, don't delay, you'll be priced out in Alpharetta!!!" cries. Nothing even to warrant the "no one knows when we've reached the bottom until its too late" nonsense. Consider this excerpt from the opinion in the link you provided:

"For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years."

Much of what I've read suggests that there will be continued declines in prices in many places, even in Alpharetta. Calling bottom now is in my opinion, very, very premature.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 19, 2008
And John is pretty much right on with everything I've read.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun May 18, 2008
Not angry or bitter at all. I lead a very happy life and I have been very blessed in a myriad of ways. I just think it is disgraceful how many many agents are so self-interested that they can't bring themselves to be honest. I have used one agent several times, as have several other members of my family, who is honest and honorable. Most of the replies you see on Trulia from agents simply reinforce the widely held used-car salesman stereotype - it's always a great time to buy!!! And of course, anyone who objects to or contradicts the false sunshine gets "It's too bad you have such a hostile attitude, hopefully it doesn't pore (sic) into the rest of your life...you wouldn't be too much fun to be around," while describing themselves as "smart, professional, ethical, hard working and who put their clients' best interests first (even when they may or may not get paid for doing so)". Tell me, Lisa, which one us, you or I, benefits financially when someone buys, even if it were a declining market and they would have been better off waiting? If I were an agent I would be embarrassed by they way the NAR and my fellow agents regularly portray themselves. You have done nothing to change that portrayal.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun May 18, 2008
By the way, Carlos already supplied a link citing that article. You're a little slow.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat May 17, 2008
It might be a good idea to reassess your bias. How accurately did CNN call the bubble across the nation? Exactly.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat May 17, 2008
There is nothing that indicates that prices will continue to fall. In fact all recent studies show that the Alpharetta Market as a whole saw a 1.76% increase in 2007 and that 2008 is expected to be higher. Also, based on other recent studies - it appears that we have hit bottom and are climbing from here on out.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Tue Apr 29, 2008
The market in Atlanta is not being hit as hard as LA. I’m speaking as a property owner in Brentwood & Marina Del Rey. Now in Alpharetta certain subdivisions have been less effected by the downturn. There are a lot of transplants in Alpharetta from the West & East Coast holding high paying corporate positions. (I have kept data on the movement & prices here). In certain subdivision values are holding & some cases going up. I just received an appraisal on one house that went up $15,000.00 in one year in Alpharetta.

We should see an upturn in Alpharetta & nationally with higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional that will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high cost areas. Therefore a noticeable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year. This means you will be paying more for the same house in 2009.


I would be more than happy to discuss the market here in Alpharetta & compare it to Santa Monica for you. Moreover, I can setup you up with your very own website that will email you houses that meet your criteria. It will keep you abreast of any pricing changes as well as the local market here.

John J. Reinhardt
REALTOR ®
RE/MAX Greater Atlanta
678.784.4440
http://www.InFrontMarketing.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Tue Apr 29, 2008
Victor, good question! No crystal ball but if the bank owned properties inventories are reduced by 10% the
Market in inventory will see prices beginning to rise the third and fourth quarter of 2011. There are many
Excellent homes now to choose from and other options you have including lease purchase options. That way you have a chance to see more properties and make sure you like the home you are leaseing along with the
schools,nieghborghood etc.
We can lock-in a sales price based on the current or future market with an
option to complete purchase with in a
12 to 24 month time period. If you want to wait to lock in you offer just incase the market has not reached bottom in this market area. This may be the perfect answer for you.

I would e delighted to help you and
have exceptional experience in the
Alpharetta area as I have lived in the market area for over 20 years.

You can reach me at 770-616-2214 anytime to discuss further the choices. You have to insure a win!

Smart consumer!

I can help you make that happen!

Rebecca S.Damiani, CPM
Key Management & Consulting, Inc.
Rsdamiani@gmail.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 17, 2011
I think the prices in alpharetta corrected significantly since we last discussed it here.
I still think it was a problem with over construction but I am an outsider and haven't visited the region in more than a year. How do you all see it now? Are we there yet?
I personally think we are almost there, may be 6 more months of down side risk.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jul 20, 2010
Hi HomeShopper,

I've been following this thread for a while and saw that you might be moving to the Alpharetta area in the future. Coincidentally I'm taking out a prospective buyer this afternoon who is in town on interviews from NJ (I believe Clifton). My husband grew up in Manalapan, NJ and I grew up in Port Washington, NY and we have been living in Alpharetta for over 10 years, so I'm familiar with both your area and the Alpharetta area. I completely agree with you that you can't compare Edison to Alpharetta...the cost of living and life style you can have in Alpharetta really makes it a great place to live and bring up a family (if that is in the cards for you).

You mentioned you have relatives that live here, do you know the neighborhood/subdivision that they live in? I'd be curious to see if we know each other.

If you're interested in learning more about Alpharetta I'd love to help you.

Please let me know if I can be of assistance,
Lisa Chasin
cell: 404-642-1091
lisa@lisachasin.com
http://www.lisachasin.com
Web Reference: http://www.lisachasin.com/
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 23, 2009
Victor,
Obviously I offended, you, didn't intend to do that. I was just casually asking what brought you here, thought you do deal real estate here too.
I have family in Alpharetta, visited several times, and would really like to move there some time in future. As you know, I have been living in Edison area for several years. I did exaggerate a bit and shouldn't have used 'slum' word, so, I apologize, but Edison is no comparison to Alpharetta in my opinion.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 23, 2009
Home Shopper, why are you trolling in this area of the country? Do you even know where Alpharetta is without doing a mapquest search? Why does my being here bother you?

I was here because another hater/spammer/mis-information spreader was littering the trulia forums over the weekend and my replies to his stupid posts somehow led me here. I don't know why I attract these losers but they follow my posts similar to what you are doing now but to a much more negative degree trying to make me and other realtors look bad and insult people looking to delve into home ownership.

Incidentally his profile was deleted for abuse.

These types of people and others with never a good word to say but to defame the idea of home ownership and all realtors.

Making comments like Edison is a slum, you obviously never been there!

"If I remember correctly, it is the jump in rates from 4.5% to 6.5% that set this whole crash in motion, which we are now unable to stop even after taking the rates back to 5%"

You may not remember so good because mortgage rates haven't been in the 4% range um... EVER!!! or at least as far back as I can remember, rates went down because the Feds initiative to stimulate home buyers sitting on the fence to make a move and buy.

Also that the reason for the real estate problems stems from the community reinvestment act and so called "affordable housing" loan mandates made by democrats to force banks to make risky loans to people that otherwise would never qualify for a loan. This is something that would have happened sooner or later but nobody knew it would be to this degree.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 22, 2009
Home Shopper,

I love your reasoning. Prices don't necessarily come down because of interest rates, it's just simple supply and demand. I'd suggest a little research project - my guess is that mortgage companies wrote more apps in the last 2 weeks than in previous weeks, despite having rates 1 whole point higher than in previous weeks.

Homes will remain flat, and the interest rate will help or hurt the sales, but prices long term (Key Word: Long Term) are not effected by the rate.

It's also a interesting take: You'd rather pay what amounts to $50K more for a home (through the interest rate) than get "ACTUAL" value with a lower interest rate.

One thing that happens with low interest rates, is that you are financing REAL value. If you knew the rates were going to vary wildly in the next few years, then you could get the lowest price in exchange for the highest rate, knowing that the market could correct and bring the rate down so you win both sides. Unfortunately, it won't happen like that. The rates will go up from here, prices could come down as a result, but remember 1 interest rate point is like a $10K change. Most homes (media) will not go up and down more than $10K from now on.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 22, 2009
Joshua Jarvis, Real Estate Pro in Duluth, GA
MVP'08
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Goat in case you haven't noticed this is a real estate, not a gold silver trading site. Spam and Sell it elsewhere!

Goat read my entire post I wasn't calling bottom in 2007, for the people asking I told them that prices have come down and the interest rates did as well, since the rates have fallen tremendously although starting to rise now are still excellent.

As your gold values go up, they may with our Governments careless spending and borrowing but how much house will you be able to get when inflation raises interest rates for buyers down the road to double digits?

You keep referring to real estate as a monetary investment, most people don't buy real estate for that being the primary reason. Most buy to build and grow a family in, take advantage of tax deductions and as they pay off their homes (over 90% of Americans are paying their mortgages) they will only need to pay taxes, no rent and can pass on the home to family when they die or when alive (down the road) borrow against it via home equity loans, you do know many people do have equity in their homes. Only people purchasing since around 2004 are in trouble or experiencing little to no equity but not even all of them.

Most people, unlike you feel that family is an investment as well and growing up in a home they can call their own is a beautiful thing you would not know anything about (being a renter).

By the way, why does your profile say buyer, isn''t that deceptive, shouldn't it say other?
For all I care you can be buried with your gold and silver, I hope your happy together, just stop pushing on people here, this is not a gold and silver ad site.

Have a good day, I'm done with your stupid arrogance and clear hatred toward a profession of people helping people achieve their goal of home ownership. I've never pushed a home on someone that didn't want to buy or shouldn't because of personal finances or for any other reason for that matter. Real estate isn't exactly a "Quick Sell" and gives buyers many opportunities to back out and plenty of time to think it over.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
when is the bottom of the market? - The moment it starts going back up, you know the bottom.


" I don't want to buy now because I feel that prices will continue to go down."

I love this. You can try to guess the market if you like but you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting it right. What do I mean, well, there are three things that can happen while you wait.

1. Interest Rates go up - a 1% increase is a $10 Price increase.
2. Many neighborhoods have already flatlined and turned around (some do continue to decline) - there are several with 1% increases in the last 60 days! You don't know the bottom until it's already hit! So you could pay more for waiting. Also, if you are a 1st time buyer, then if you wait past october, you'll miss the tax credit.
3. You could guess perfectly.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
Joshua Jarvis, Real Estate Pro in Duluth, GA
MVP'08
Contact
Hi Adam - I was just curios why you choose the 3 homes you did in your posting below. All three would appear to be very different, both in types of houses and their price ranges. Obviously, the prices for each of these have fallen along with the rest of the market, but what in your view make these any more desperate than any of the other homes for sale in the area?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
I am in the same frame of mind as Alan... That being said I'm in the market for a house in Alpharetta right now. Mainly because from my perspective the interest rates can't get much better and we seem to be approaching the bottom fairly quickly. At least quicker than before the change in administrations. I'm also told that the govt has implemented a formulaic program which allows banks to place a value on foreclosures and will penanlize them for selling them for less than the formula determines they are worth. The upshot being keeping a property on the books for an extended period of time might be less costly than moving it for less than the value and paying a penalty. So are we nearing the bottom? Is this formula fact or fiction and will it have an impact on the housing market?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 11, 2009
I'd like to congratulate all of you who called bottom nine months ago and encouraged people to leap blindly into buying. You were all so right. You had those potential buyers' best interests at heart. Real estate is shooting up like crazy. Everyone who didn't buy is now completely priced out of the market. They should have listened to you!!!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jan 30, 2009
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