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Sal, Home Buyer in New Jersey

At what point (best guess) will the housing market begin to rebound in QC, AZ?

Asked by Sal, New Jersey Tue Jan 20, 2009

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I have one of those big fancy aerial photos of Phoenix in my office. They are made by Landiscor and cost a ridiculous amount of money, but as a talking point, it's almost invaluable for people trying to understand the greater Phoenix area.

When they begin to talk about the most outlying areas, like Queen Creek, and housing prices, I show them the map, and I show them all of the vacant land that still exists between where they are thinking, and the airport. As we know, all of that vacant land will one day develop into housing. And when it does, it will be competition for everything that is further from the airport than the new home that goes up 5 or 10 or 15 miles closer to the airport.

That new home, on fresh new land, will be new. It will be built to the "modern" standard, whatever that happens to be 5 or 10 years from now. Perhaps that is more energy efficient, bigger, smaller, taller, fatter--we really don't know. But when it is built, people will like the shiny new thing, and the older thing that's further away will look...dated.

So when will Queen Creek bounce back? I've told my clients for years now: When all of that vacant land gets built. Right now there is far too much inventory, and the land is not even 50% built. Personally, I think it's going to be a long time. If a true bounce back happens by 2013, I'd be very surprised. My guess would be 2017, IF the economy doesn't plow into a great depression, thanks to our governments economic policies.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jan 21, 2009
Just when you thought Queen Creek home values couldn't drop any further, they have done so. The reasons are fairly basic ... Queen Creek was the destination for those buying homes under the old idea of "drive until you qualify." It was a place where subprime loans where used commonly and where investors found ways around the builders' restrictions and purchased homes. And, lastly, Queen Creek is now and always will be between 90 minutes and two hours from the airport, depending on traffic.

Queen Creek has been absorbing the foreclosure inventory remarkably well and for a time last year had an absorption rate - the amount of time needed for all homes to sell if nothing new came to the market - of four months and change. (It since has risen.)

When you ask when the market will rebound I only can assume you mean from a price standpoint. That's a rather difficult question to answer in an environment when banks continue to put homes on the market at increasingly lower prices in order to move inventory. Would the properties move as easily if the banks were not constantly lowering the bar? Possibly, but we won't know the answer to that question.

As long as the banks are setting new low prices and until a time when every preemptive lowball price is met with multiple offers, raising the final sales price, you're not going to see prices improve.

Just my two cents ...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jan 20, 2009
Hi Sal!

Holy smoke... I just gazed into my crystal ball and it said, "Drill 3 holes in me and go bowling!" So I shook it up and tried it again, asking it your question: 'When will housing in QC rebound?' This time it said, "Be patient."

It was at that a point that I realized that I actually picked my 8 Ball! LOL

Please don't be offended at my sick sense of humor. It's nothing personal. I happen to agree with Stew,but let me ask YOU a question. If I said QC is gonna make a miraculous come-back starting in mid-2009, OR if I said, I really see the bottom right now, and I expect to see QC starting to recover within the next 1-2 years, OR if I said I'm fairly certain I'm gonna be dead and buried before QC arises from the ashes, what would you do with that opinion? Would it help you?

I applaud your efforts at seeking out the thoughts and counsel of others. I just want to caution you about the source(s) of the information. My recommendation is that you hook up with an experienced Realtor/Broker, ask her/him to keep you informed of the market conditions in Queen Creek, follow his/her blogs, newsletters, websites, emails, etc. In the end run, you'll have a trusted relationship with a true professional that can help guide you in your assessments and buying/selling decisions in QC.

All the best, Sal!

...randy
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jan 20, 2009
Hi Sal,

I'm sure your line of questioning has to do with the deep discounts being shown there.
One thing you really need to understand about Queen Creek. It is a LONG way out there form city stuff.
The roads through Queen Creek are one lane. It's very isolated right now and needs road improvement leading in and out of the township. Areas outside QC closer to Mesa (further north) are in a little better shape.
The housing in the area will rebound with employment. Honestly, it's going to be a while.

Probably several years...

Stew Keene
Ph (480) 220-7491
Fax (866) 711-8573
StewKeene@yahoo.com
Keller Williams - Scottsdale, AZ
2008-2009 Master of Real Estate award recipient
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jan 20, 2009
Sal

The market is currently absorbing the foreclosures out in Queen Creek, especially in Pinal County Queen Creek where the foreclosure home prices are less than the cost to re-build in many cases. Once these are absorbed we will see the market turn a corner. There is competition for the lower priced homes with many investor coming back to the market as the magical 1% rent value of purchase price is available in those areas meaning cash flow from investment property.

Below is an extract from my web site that I publish the monthly stats for the Queen Creek are, both Maricopa and Pinal County areas. I hope this helps. Let me know if you need any further information or if you would like a free list of the foreclosure homes in that area.

Maricopa County Queen Creek Market Stats: There were a total of 410 closed sales from July 1st to December 31st in 2008 compared to 178 in July 1st of 2007 to December 31st of 2007. The average selling price for that period was $264,139 compared to an average selling price of $331,532 for the same period in 2007, a percentage drop of 20%. The average sales price per square foot was $95.20 compared to $131.76 for the same period in 2007. The average number of days a house was on the market was 104, compared to 128 days for the same period in 2007. Currently there is a 6.6 month supply of inventory with 450 houses on the market for sale as of 01/05/2009. With prices down so low and interest rates very favorable it is a great time to buy if you know where to look. As real estate experts in Queen Creek, we're here to help you find a great property at a great price, please contact us today for an up to date market report or a list of bank owned foreclosed homes.

Pinal County Queen Creek Market Stats: There were a total of 1659 closed sales from July 1st to December 31st in 2008 compared to 667 in July 1st of 2007 to December 31st of 2007. The average selling price for that period was $134,436 compared to an average selling price of $198,656 for the same period in 2007, a percentage drop of 32%. The average sales price per square foot was $66.57 compared to $99.53 for the same period in 2007. The average number of days a house was on the market was 78, compared to 105 days for the same period in 2007. Currently there is a 5 month supply of inventory with 1659 houses on the market for sale as of 01/05/2009. With prices down so low it is a great time to buy!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jan 20, 2009
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