Foreclosure in Alamo>Question Details

Sigorwoz, Home Buyer in Danville, VA

In the November 12, 2007 issue of Fortune magazine they are forecasting a 38% drop in Eastbay housing prices

Asked by Sigorwoz, Danville, VA Sat Nov 3, 2007

over 5 years for the Eastbay. I realize that this number encompasses outer lying areas, but how would the desireable westside Alamo or Danville react from a percentage drop...it has always been so niche and somewhat bulletproof to downwrd pricing pressure? But, it has always been so high relative to everywhere in the Eastbay. I am considering buying a home in this area, but am VERY nervous about buying right now given the unprecedented negative market and associated press. Please advice! Thanks!

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I visited the blog of which Susan spoke and this guy makes Thornberg look like an NAR economist!! Here are some fearless predictions which you all can ponder:
For the Past 60 Years, economists, wall street analysts, and other supposed financial experts have predicted the end of real estate appreciation. Take a quick trip through their
far-off-the-mark forecasts from years gone by:

©If you have bought your house since the War...You have made your deal at the top of the market...The days when you couldn't lose on a house purchase are no longer with us." (House Beautiful, November 1948)
© "Be suspicious of the 'common wisdom' that tells you 'Buy now'...Because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher." (NEA Journal, December 1970)
© "In California...For example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses...I'm confident prices have passed their peak." (John Wesley English & Gray Emerson Cardiff, The Coming Real Estate '' Crash. 1980)
© 'if you're looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore." (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985)
© "We're starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money-making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot." (Los Angeles Times, January 31, 1993)
© "Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment." (Kiplinger s Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993)

©"The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline." (Time, December 1, 1947)

© "Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today's average price is around $8,000—out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers." (Science Digest, April 1948)

© "The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000." (Business Week, September 4, 1969)
© "The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close." (Money, January 1981)

© "Most economists agree... [a home] will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980’s.” (Money, April 1986)

© The baby boomers are all housed now. They are being followed by the baby bust. By 2005, real housing prices will sit 40 percent below where they are today." (Harvard economist Gregory Mankiw, "The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Coming Collapse of Housing Prices." Journal of Regional Economics, Fall 1989)
Source: http://www.sbaor.com
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
Some quotes on Thornburg, who i see as a great voice on the situatution, but his need to become a Media icon and make money off the down market has blurred his initial vision. He is the extreme to me and the measure of Negativity. But there is also a extreme of positivy, and you have to find the actual truth somewhere in between.


"I just think he's too negative all the time," said Paul Ward, a broker associate at Keller Williams Realty in Danville, who most recently took offense when Thornberg called the real estate market "abysmal." "If anyone listened to him (Thornberg) in 2003, they would have lost out on a lot of money," Ward said.

"And Thornberg takes that role seriously, courting the media until he has become a blue-chip expert on real estate economics. His media presence is huge. In the past month, the Southern California-based Thornberg has appeared in almost every news outlet in the Bay Area."

Thornberg is the Media Darling and owns his own Company Beacon Economics. It is easier to buy into the Most Negative speaker when your a media outlet, it is the fastest route to Sensationalize and Sell papers. Do you think the papers have an unbiased opinion or how about someone that gets paid to be a keynote speaker everywhere he goes, example. " And unlike many economists who simply do a state of the economy, his company, Beacon Economics, goes out on a limb. "People who don't want to hear about it don't ask us to talk about it," he said." Sounds like good sound unbiased opinion to me.

""I read what he has to say, but what do they tell you in college? Don't just look at one source," said Colleen Badagliacco, president of the California Association of Realtors."

I agree with the last quote. It is one of many voices that we need to find the truth.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
I really need to pick this article up, because all the research and statistics involved in these areas are completely different. I need to see there sources so i can make a unbiased response. Do you have a web link to the article.

And yes give your self a pat on the back, you are the reason why the media continues to print and report articles like this. If it wasnt for you, there would be no need for the negative media #'s.

I believe that the public needs to be aware of whats going in the market, and the media could be a great outlet. But it is easier to report negative than positive information. And Negative sensationalism is what sells papers, and magazines.

It is really hard to get an unbiased article, i have yet to see an honest evalutaion of the current market. i would really like to see what is really going on. Media is the negative Brokers in your eyes are the postive, but there is an in between that needs to be brought about. Only during honest evalutions can we honestly reflect upon a 5 year plan. I dont think furtune, came close and maybe some others that we look to have not also.

Time will tell And i can Gurantee you my house in Danville will never be valued 38% of what it is worth currently. I stand behind that.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
Hi Susan sounds as if you frequent the CL forums. :)
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
It will happen.

It will get worse before it gets better.

The adjustment isn't done yet...

Might not be done for another year.

You going to buy or are you going to wait to see if you get lucky and hit it just right?
2 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Nov 11, 2007
Keep in mind that the East Bay encompasses a very wide area...including Hayward and Antioch...both with huge amounts of inventory on the market...so much so that it skews the stats in both Alameda and Contra Costa counties where they are, respectively, located.

I also love the term forecasting......which equates to "predicting." WHo has the best crystal ball?

It all depends on City and neighborhod. Danville and San Ramon are very desirable communities and I don't thing you are going to see the swings here that these folks are predicting.
Web Reference: http://www.cindihagley.com
2 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Nov 11, 2007
Cindi Hagley, Real Estate Pro in San Ramon, CA
MVP'08
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Interesting forecast and number: 38%. Not 35% or 40% but 38%! I would love to see their assumptions to arrive at such an exact number. My criterion for price drops centers around the "shaking out" of the loan debacle. We just had Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics, formerly of the Anderson School at UCLA; speak at a breakfast here in Sonoma County. His take is the mortgage implosion will bring down the house of cards buoyed largely by unsustainable lending which originated in the past three years. The height of the "re-casting" of these loans will be third quarter of 2008. So 2009 will be a very interesting year!! . He is predicting a 35% drop from the high of the market which matches the date set by Fortune. However, this is centered in the price segment where the largest incidents of unscrupulous "incentive based" lending occurred and that price point for Sonoma County is $400-$750,000. Mr. Thornberg's record for predictions is very, very good. He stated further we have a 75% chance of a recession at this time. On the flip side, the California Assoc. of Realtors chief economist, Leslie Appleton-Young, is predicting 4% fall in prices next year. I think what we have here are the two "extremes"! Leslie is in fairytale land and Mr. Thornberg has California falling into the ocean! In our area we've seen some neighborhoods unaffected and some with 20-30% price drops! I think making One million dollar offers on two Million Dollar homes is a bit silly and very paranoid but 20-30%? Who knows? In lovely Marin you'd get laughed out the door with anything BUT a full price and sometimes OVER bidding! Why? Resources, supply and demand, location, location, location!
Seek out your LOCAL Realtor, get LOCAL data and make an offer based on this LOCAL information. The "Cheerleaders" we now have in our industry are doing just as much damage as those predicting Armageddon!! As usual we have middle, realistic ground which needs to be sought.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 5, 2007
A different perspective:

Perhaps many wealthy people DO hem and haw about spending $20. That's how they got to be wealthy - "nickle and diming" and being frugal.

Income is never "disposable" - treating it as such is why people end up with more debt than they do assets. You show me someone throwing their money around willy-nilly, always seeming to have enough to pay for everyone else's drinks, and I'll show you someone eyebrow deep in debt.

Don't be fooled. The wealthiest people I know can also be the cheapest. (Or should I say " most frugal"?) :-)
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun Feb 15, 2009
I do agree that Danville and Alamo will not drop 38%, but it indicators are pointing to a drop of at least 10-12% (accounting for falsley infalted pricing) over the next year before stabilization. It makes sense to be very careful before buying and if you are going to purchase in the near term to look for a "value" in buying. There is still a large deparity between what sellers believe their house is worth and what buyers are willing to pay. And, yes the media is scarring and trying to provide education to buyers which is making it worse for sellers. But, I must say with the thought of paying $1.5M for a home, I am willing to wait a little longer to save some money before move into a more stable market. The fear that is out there will cause a paralysis of the market on top of the major credit crisis equals a disaster and absolutely lower pricing. Realtors in the area are not optomistic about the next year and believe we will see a 4-8% drop in the above mentioned areas and we will then stabilize in 2009. They are also saying that sellers and not getting ANY offers and are willing to take sometimes as low as $200K below their asking price. There will undoubtly be further price reductions, but it is a roll of the dice as to how much that drop will be. These times are UNPRECEDENTED just like the stock market of falsely inflated companies and earnings. We are also tettering on a recession which is a precursor for lower pricing....maybe the international market will pour money into the US real estate market and help bring it back...?
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
The article is based on rent /price ratios that vary dramatically throughout the Bay area and as several other commentators have mentioned, one needs to really get clean data that is not bundled with the struggling Oakland neighborhoods and/or the overbuilt and struggling Antiochs and Brentwoods of the East Bay. The 40-50 year numbers suggest that most of these downswings have very sharp v shaped bottoms and do not have saucer bottoms that stay flat and down for significant periods of time. So... take 3-6 months to identify your favorite areas and get your lender ready to go.
Web Reference: http://www.apr.com/dougm
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
Ok Found your article http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/real_estate/home_prices.fort…

Now wow to think that you actually think that east bay in this articles light can even apply to the areas you mentioned is, Well ill be polite wishful thinking. Im as eager to find out whats next as anyone else, but to look at this article and give it merit as to your question, i can clearly say i cant.

They are including oakland, and other horrible areas in here. If you are to use this theory that they are suggesting you would need to actually have the price/rent ratios of the actual city, yet alone neighborhood to get an accurate reading. To bundle Oakland's numbers with Danville or say Alamo is clearly irrational. Tell me one are of statistic were you can bundle in those 2 cities. Can you say crime in oakland is a reflection on Alamo. Can you base school scores on a generalization like this. No you cant. Alamo and Oakland school scores are extremely different. But yet you sit there and hope that someone will be persuaded to take a 38% reduction on there house because of fortune magazine. Luckily there are educated people in this world, and we should be glad they are not as naive.

Not to mention you forgot to minus the avg. rise of 12% and that would give you 26%. Thats there east bay #'s. I think they might work in Oakland but there sure not working here. Good luck with that though.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
We relocated back to the area from southern CA and I am glad we decided to rent and not buy too. This area (we are looking at Danville and Alamo) is a great area, but it will still see some downward pricing pressure and given home prices, it needs to come down further. In the Sunday paper, Chris Thornberg (UCLA economist that the biggest financial institutions turn to as their guru on where the market is heading) believes we have another year or two before we begin to STABILIZE and that we could see another 25% decrease to return to proper ratios. We cannot be fooled by falsely inflated prices, but need to be able to recognize a "value" when buying a home.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
Great answer Mike, did the Speaker Chris Thornberg account for the 16 Billion dollars of those re-casting loans that countrywide agreed to start making loan adjustments. There are other major banks following countrywides lead, and i think that this one step will adjust those #'s significantly.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 5, 2007
I have lived in Alamo for 15 yrs now. My neighborhood has been very stable, my neighbors extremely pleasant and -- to my surprise when I first moved in - very welcoming! They were not snooty at all. Our children have grown up together, and continue to grow up together. I chose Alamo because of the choices in schools: it has a good public school district, as well as excellent private schools. Also, although the San Franciscans may choose to look down their noses at the Contra Costa Ballet and the Lesher Theatre, we do have our share of culture here. We do not have to cross the Bay Bridge. We can choose to explore Walnut Creek, or Berkeley if you so choose. One thing that also is very appealing about Alamo is the fact that you can still feel safe about your child biking or walking to school. There are enough eyes and ears along the way to the different schools (Alamo School or Stone Valley Middle School) to ensure your children are safe. Parents are very involved in after school activities, whether coaching soccer, baseball, lacrosse, or involvement in Indian Guides/Princesses or Cub Scouts/Boy Scouts. We are a small town, we know each other better than other small towns and that is a nice thing to have.

I work in San Francisco and commute in every day. Generally, it is not that bad unless the bridge is closed. I have asked my children repeatedly if they would like to move to San Francisco. Their unanimous answer has always been NO. Alamo is home, and Alamo is family.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
Got it. The commute is a HUGE deal, and the desire for amenities is another huge factor. I have never actually been to Palo Alto, but Mill Valley is lovely. One of my favorite home furnishing stores, West Elm is nearby in Corte Madera. They just opened one in Emeryville too, but prior to that, I made quite a few trips to Marin for that store! I still sometimes shop at the Marin one, because I really like the area, and it's a nice place to have lunch and see the sights.

Walnut Creek has decent amenities, but is sounds like you aren't really "feeling" the community. There are some nice neighborhoods with high end homes, but overall, it sounds like you have something different in mind for a place to plant roots.

Tiburon is pretty too, but probably a hell of a commute for your husband also. Good luck in whatever you decide to do.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 4, 2009
We are sort of looking all over the place...Marin, Lamorinda, Palo Alto, Peninsula, Alamo. Just getting the lay of the land. So far, we like Mill Valley and Palo Alto, but those areas would create a commute situation of over 1 hour each way for my husband.

The homes in Alamo are very nice, but the town pretty much only has a Safeway...which is the same issue with Orinda. Living there would require a lot of driving to do anything since the town has very little in the way of amenities, and nothing is walkable. Plus the traffic is horrendous to get anywhere outside the area via 680 and 24.

MV and PA seem to have everything we are looking for...good schools, restaurants,shopping, proximity to art and culture, sophisticated and educated people, family oriented, walkable downtown areas and good weather. These areas also feel more familiar to me as a transplant. Unfotunately there isnt anywhere in the contra costa area like MV and PA.

We are taking our time to make the right decision, but at this point it comes down to lifestyle vs. commute.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 4, 2009
Very true, Susan.

There are so many factors involved in such a personal and important decision. Each buyer will make their decision based on their own priorites, but when it's all said and done what really matters at the end of the day is that each individual feels that they have made the right decision, at the right time - for them - based on their own personal needs.

The home we purchased needed light cosmetic work but was structurally very sound and had a beautifully updated kitchen and baths. We wanted *some* work to do ourselves, being DIY enthusiasts with our own unique design style. We have loved working on our home as a couple, and it's really been rewarding to see the home become "us" - plus in a declining market, we've managed to add some value back to the home by doing some small upgrades and improvements. We also got a real good deal on the home due to some unique circumstances with the seller. (Long story, but in the end - everybody won! ) Interestingly, the sellers were there for the initial viewing AND the inspection - it was a very atypical situation - but it went seamlessly.

I'm happy with my choice that I made to buy my home last summer, (despite all the uncertainty of today's market) and I hope when the time eventually comes for you to "take the leap" you find a great home in a community you love as well, and that you end up feeling really good about the entire purchase, and the end result. I also hope you end up liking it here. I know it's not what you're used to, but the community does have some wonderful features.

Have you narrowed down to a certain town, or are there a few options you're looking at?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 3, 2009
Well...real estate is very emotional for all parties right now. Buyers, sellers, agents, and homeowners. I think if you bought a home in the east bay in the last 5 years, no matter how you try to convince yourself that a home is a place to live, raise a family, and not an investment, it is still scary that the mortgage you pay every month is going towards a sharply depreciating asset.

It is also a buyers market right now, so when homeowners read how picky buyers actually can be about the condition of a home, what the street looks like, how the neighbors maintain their homes etc they may take it personally. In the Lamorinda area in particular, the reality today is that most buyers are still not willing to pay the current asking prices for area homes, espcially those in distress, needing extensive cosmetic repairs etc. I personally know 3 or 4 buyers in the area who feel exactly the way I do about the area home quality vs. prices.

If you bought a place in the past 5 years, along the 24/680 corridor, this may be what you ended up with. Or you may have paid less, but think this type of home is worth X dollars because you have grown to love the place, and have memories there. This is why agents generally keep the sellers away when buyers are looking at the place...so they dont hear the comments. It is normal for the seller to be emotionally attached to their home and neighborhood.

On message boards, everything is out in the open, and it is hard for people to not take things personally, but when it turns ugly, and off topic, that isnt good or helpul for anyone so closing that post was the best thing to do to keep things civilized.

The fortune magazine article mentioned above is now a reality in the more desirable parts of the east bay, and that has a lot of homeowners worried about their biggest asset losing money every month, and buyers skeptical about not seeing a bottom any time soon.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 2, 2009
Susan - it looks like you opted to close the other thread which is understandable. As you once mentioned during a prior discussion with RealtyExec, sometimes things get emotional.

I wanted to respond to your thanks for the listings - you're welcome. Not sure if they suit your needs, but it looks like there are few choices out there in your target areas with the room you and your family are seeking. I think we looked at 50+ houses before we picked one. :-)

Have fun with your friends, and hopefully the home search will go smoothly for you. If you and your visitors want to try a nice restaurant, Postino in Lafayette is great. (Not sure if you've been there yet, I just went for the first time last week.) The wine list is excellent, and the food is fresh and flavorful. I can't say enough about the ambience and the interior - it looks straight out of the Italian countryside.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Mar 1, 2009
I do see your point Susan, I really do.

It's an unfortunate situation you are describing, and while $150,000 per year income could be considered quite wealthy in some parts of the country, here, unfortunately, it doesn't go far. Another factor is what we have been discussing all along - home prices/cost of living shot up here, disproportionately to income and wages. People who were doing fine a few years ago are struggling now.

It's never a good idea to overextend one's self, and it can happen in any income bracket. "Wealth" is measured less by income alone, and more by debt to income ratio, money saved vs. money spent, etc. If you are making 2 million dollars a year, but spending 3 million, you're not wealthy, you're screwed.

(If, in fact one is measuring wealth, simply by dollars and cents alone, vs. all the other factors that make a person "well off" like emotional and personal stability and fulfillment, neither of which money can buy.)

I think "rich" people worry about money all the time, though - how to make it, how to save it, how to avoid spending, or losing it, how to hoard every penny to the point of obsession, which likely makes them worry far more than what's healthy.

We make enough to live comfortably in my household, but we're not Bill gates and Oprah. However, we purchased our home with zero debt, not so much as a $5 credit card balance. Our mortgage is high compared to the rest of the country, and even a good portion of Contra Costa county, but it's our only expense outside of cost of living, and therefore, we're doing fine. As far as having money to "spend" we do, but don't feel that we need to spend a lot to feel like we "have a life." In my experiences, the more you want, (or feel you need) in a material sense, the less happy you actually are. There could be a lot more going on in the lives of the folks you are speaking about besides just income that is causing them stress.

I'm just speaking from a practical sense. Money can, and does, buy heat, food, shelter, etc, thus fulfilling the very lowest, basest level of the hierarchy of human needs, but that's really about it.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Feb 17, 2009
Alamo real estate is cratering. West side is collapsing.

Look at 106 Sonoma. Sellers paid $1.6M in 2006 selling for $1.2 today.
3204 STONE VALLEY is going to drop to $1M... 6 months on the market
18 Ardendale Ct (4800 square feet!) down to $1.3M
1597 Via Romero is down to $1.25M
South Jackson had 3-5 homes for sale and is now a
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Feb 14, 2009
If you go to Zillow and look at the median home price in Alamo for 2000 it was approaxiamtely $650,000. Currently it is $1.4 million - apprecaition of 115 percent in 8 years. What caused such a dramatic increase? Exotic mortgages.

A price chart for the area shows a clear break with normal price to income ratios and price to rent ratios in about 2000. It is reasonable to assume that without exotic mortgages which reduce the upfront cash required and monthly payments in years 1 through 5 that housing will return to its normal ratios of income to price. This would suggest a significant decrease from current prices. If prices return to 2000 levels it would represent a 54 percent drop from current level.

I cannot predict where house prices will end up after the current crisis "washes out". But a look at fundamental economic factors suggest that housing in Danville and Alamo has a long way to drop.

As housing prices falls the number of homeowners “underwater” increases leading to increases in the number of homes in foreclosure. The increasing supply of homes coupled with the reductions in actionable demand attributed to the difficulty in attaining a mortgage for anyone without sterling credit and a large down payment is almost certain to decrease prices even further.

Oscar
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jan 21, 2009
I think you must isolate, most likely by zip code, the credit implosion areas to truly get a statisticly correct number. I'm doing this now in our area of Sonoma County as the areas hit hardest by the sub-prime bomb are centered in areas of heavy production housing and areas with lower income and high diverse ethnicity.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2007
I agree Sigor, to that is a more logical approach and one that i think alot of other buyers HINT HINT Susan shoud take. Knowone is pressuring anyone to buy a home. I think time will tell for all of us, but what sold me when i bought my house was how little for sale signs were in my neighborhood and with the so called subprime or credit "Even though i still think these markets have less than 10% of those clients" market the amount of signs in the neighborhood is the same. Its a real community.

I think There will be easily a 10% correction and maybe more on some appraised values, but there will be also some areas seeing appreciation. So to each there own. And i Hope you and Susan one day find the house and price that makes you happy.

Good Luck
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
I recently saw this bay area housing market blogger on 60 minutes. I think his website is a great resource for buyers who want to have up to date information about the housing market. His compilation of information and articles is the most logical I have seen on the bay area housing market since I moved here 10 months ago.

http://www.patrick.net
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
Wow Sigorwoz. It sounds like we are in the same situation. It is comforting to know there are other buyers out there with a simiar mindset as me and my husband. Have you put your home search on hold or do you keep looking? What are you finding the general attitude is with the RE community at open houses?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
I am in the process of buying a home so it is important for me to stay atuned to what is going on in the industry.

My favorite part of this article is where it says an upscale 1.5MM home in WALNUT CREEK will be worth $1,078,000 in 5 years. This is one of the areas I am looking to buy a home right now. Oh...my bank account will be so much happier with this great news. I am SO GLAD I didnt buy when we first moved up here, and chose to rent and watch what happens. Everything I predicted is coming true.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
What I find interesting about all of these articles and predictions about the market downturn is that the only people who seem to discredit them are real estate brokers and the unfortunate homeowners who overpaid for their homes during the past few years. The bubble has burst, and prices will readjust to levels in line with both rent/price and income/price ratios.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2007
The Fortune article believes in order to clear inventory, it will take approximately 5 years and then stablize. They base their large percentage price drop on rent-to-pricing ratios and once those are in balance, we will see investors come back intop the market and inventory will drop. The forecast of a 38% drop is from June 2007 prices, with the assumption of rent increases over 5 years, there would be an overall drop of 16%. My concern is buying a fixer upper at a high price and then getting my money out of it after putting $100K in to fix it up. The westside has always been desirable, but at what price these days...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Nov 4, 2007
I havn't read the article, but i will pick it up and take a look. When you look at any market in can be broken down even further into neighborhood, you must not make the mistake as media sometimes does to generalize in order to make the number more impactful. That being said, i doubt danville, alamo, san ramon, or walnut creek will ever see a 38% drop. This number in my opinion is greatly exagerated. There might be a 38% drop in sales, which is a completely different number. Danville and that general area, will not be effected heavily by this market. I think all markets will have there bumps from the current situation. But i think that area is a different animal.

With alot of the market being hampered by subprime borrowers, and general adjustable loans. This area is one of the areas were i dont see this having as big of an effect. Protected by some of the best schools and environments to raise a family this area will always find a way to weather any bad market. Having lived in the area, and experienced the overall community, i dont see people in the area running for the hills and selling at discounts of 38% or even 10% for that matter. Not to say that you cant find some bargains or a couple of short sales and foreclosures her and there. It is just not going to be as big as other investment type communities and subprime markets.

In my opinion it is a great time to buy in the area, as long as you are going to stay in the property long enough to weather some small adjustments. The area will more than make up for it, it is beautiful place to live especially for a family.

Good Luck
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Nov 4, 2007
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