Market Conditions in 95123>Question Details

Jo, Both Buyer and Seller in

Would home prices in Gilroy, Morgan Hill, Dublin, and San Ramon fall even more or have they stabilized?

Asked by Jo, Thu Apr 17, 2008

Especially the new homes being built in the area/

Help the community by answering this question:


Hello Jo,

It is hard to say. The recent statistics show that Santa Clara County's sales are down by 46% and home prices have declined by 9%. We have an overstock of inventory and it is harder for buyers to get qualified. There is more pending sales then we have seen this year. I do see more activity, but this is the prime time for real estate. If you look at it from a supply and demand view, we have plenty of supply but not nearly as much demand so it is possible that prices will fall. Regarding new homes they are offering great discounts and price reductions now, will they go lower? No one knows for sure.

I hope this helps.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 17, 2008
Unfortunately, beyond the usual apologetic shrugs that pass for agent responses, there's actually no way to answer your question without a specific time horizon. Are you looking at the home price behavior over the next 6 days, 6 weeks, 6 months, 6 years, or 6 decades? Just like with the stock market, the future direction of prices gets harder to determine the greater the change in the time scale from the underlying behavior. So, if you're looking at housing demand as an indicator of prices, the best that any agent can do is to look at his or her current pipeline of buyers and estimate their demand for the next 6 weeks. Beyond that, a chaotic blend of different trends will impact future prices.

Since housing has a very high transaction cost, it's not easy for buyers to get in and out in less than 6 month time scales. So, if fuel costs shoot up further this summer, maybe you'll see a drop in prices in those cities later this year. Or, if the economic recovery doesn't get derailed, maybe enough inventory is absorbed to drive up prices in a year or two. It's all very uncertain, but if you're looking at the time scale of a typical home owner, which is 7-8 years, then you generally come out ahead. Unless, of course, you find yourself buying in the midst of a historic market bubble. Finally, in the very long and mostly impractical time frame of 6 decades, you almost always come out ahead on a nominal dollar basis.
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0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Mar 19, 2011
Hi Jo

Quite a few areas in the Bay area are showing an upside.

The New Home Builders are offering great prices and values, and it will be Prudent to work
With a Realtor responding to your question to help negotiate another 5% to 10% from current

Best regards
Coldwell Banker
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 24, 2011
Hmmm, let me get out my crystal ball.

Actually, if I could forsee the future I'd be retired by now!!

No one can predict the future - and the idea that you are trying to makes me think you are not buying property for the right reasons. When you buy real estate you have about a 10% premium to get out of it, if the market stays flat. There are just 2 reasons that I buy real estate:

1) The property cash flows and me tenants will happily buy property for me.
2) I plan to live happily ever after in the house, I can afford the payments, etc.

In the stock market, 82% of the buyers miss their stock's "low" - but they are only paying $8 a trade, not 10% of the value!

Good Luck to you!!

0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jan 17, 2011
I think the next 6 months will be a great place to start to gauge where we are in the process. I dont think stabilize would be a good word to use. The market is always going to be moving. I am reading different numbers and March was a pretty bad month, but i feel personally like business is picking up. Time will tell and there will always be the want to look into the future, but we have to be patient and watch attentively.

Good Luck
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 17, 2008
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