Market Conditions in Modesto>Question Details

Dave C., Other/Just Looking in

Does Trulia accurately depict the current market conditions in the cental valley?

Asked by Dave C., Thu May 1, 2008

I asked this question last night in the general area but haven't received an answer. That area is quite active so the question has dropped off the board and I thought I would post it in the local market.
Trulia reports 887 Rolling Oak Ct, Modesto, CA 95351 as sold on 11/27/07 at $310,250. According to Realytrac this was the opening bid in a trustee auction which failed and 11/27/07 was the recording date for the property being classified as real estate owned. The property acutioned this week for less than 200K. Which leads me to wonder is Trulia overstating the number of home sales and pricing matricies such as median sales price and price per sq. ft. by displaying this recording as a sale?

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Part of the reason Trulia's sales stats are so high is due to the fact all REO's are sold twice, yet the market continues to drop. That is why I suggest using agents for the best answers, any other questions I can answer for you?

Nick
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri May 2, 2008
Yes it does. Thank you Nick. Although it does raise a lot more questions but I'll work on that side.

Here is what I learned. Data in the Modesto Market Trends section on Trulia is highly suspect. For example Trulia reports sales for the previous quarter Jan - Mar '08 as 1340. This is up +78% from the frist quarter of 2007 and +37% for the previous quarter. This is grossly at odds with data released by the California Association of Realtors with just last week reported March sales down 24.5% statewide. The CAR story reported something called "closed escrow sales" which must be more in line with what I think of as a sales transaction while Trulia is using transfer of deeds which is capturing foreclosure activity.

As for prices both Trulia and CAR data show drops of roughly 33% for median home prices in Modesto over the past 12 months. So in the aggregate Trulia is reflecting market prices but individual properties may not reflect the current market because of the subjectivity of assigning values to foreclosures.

Dave
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 1, 2008
I see your point, but when a property is foreclosed on the bank buys the deed of trust back at a point that has no bearing on market sale yet the deed is recorded at that price, Trulia and other algorithmic programs can not take this into account, for example at 2400 Hidden Oak in Ceres, the bank bought the deed of trust to foreclose at $297,000 but we sold it on the market at $335,000, but that won't record for another 60 days by the county so the last recorded deed on the 8th is for a much lower number than is accurate, that is the difference between stocks and property is stocks are more black and white, all shares pretty much trade around the same price but a house will sell at three prices, speculation (investor, court sale, distressed) Short sale (long time, lower price much more negotiations) Normal (regular seller with no loss claimed on either side, property is occupied). So the price you see for Freedom Lane is the price US Bank paid to clear title, not the accurate market value of the home, an agent is probably in the process of telling them what they will sell it for.

Does that answer your question?
Nick
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 1, 2008
Thanks Nick but that really doesn't answer my question. How about this one? When I pull up recent sales in Modesto one of the most recent is 3049 Freedom Lane sold for $202,263 on April 15, 2008. Would you use this as a comp for a similar home in that neighborhood? RealtyTrac says this is the recording date for the property transfering to real estate owned. I don't know how the value was established and it doesn't reflect a price where a buyer and a seller agreed.

I'm a stock investor investigating and trying to learn about real estate. In my world if someone asks me what the market is for Washington Mutual I don't say I have shares I would like to sell at $15. That might be true but it is irrelevant to fact that shares in the current market are trading at $12.50.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 1, 2008
Auction prices are not going to pop up on sold data until the buyer has fully paid the bank, and the county recorder's office has recorded the deed. It will update Trulia prices, but that being said, auction homes are not the greatest of comps either. Agents are going to be your best determination of value, email me your house and I will give you 9 comps in the last 3 months of actives solds and pendings, that should help you determine the value of the home best.

Hope this helps,
Nick
NickCameron@kw.com
Web Reference: http://www.MoveModesto.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 1, 2008
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