In Gilbert it is not the Subdivisions, or zip codes.
It`s the School district.
In my opinion school district 41 is one of the top three school districts in all of Arizona. The district has money, is building new schools, dominates as far as test scores. As of March 08 the surrounding area of district 41 was the number two top selling area, with 167 sold property`s. Totals in March of 08
Today when I compare surrounding schools districts, of pendings and solds, 41 outshines the other districts. Being Gilbert Dist 60
Another indicator is single family rentals. there are 5x less ACTIVE rentals in 41 compared to 60. The Rental market even knows it is the school district to be in.
If I have to pick a subdivision, anything in Stonecreek, not under the wires, Close to Freestone ) there are a few good deals in Neely ranch, off of Cooper & Elliot, and of course Val Vista Lakes was the neighborhood of the year 2007.
I also like Finley farms.
My theory is, Family`s buy family homes, in great schools district`s to educate their children, so that these children will grow up and move away.
Good Day & Good Luck.
Let me go back to your original question.
"subdivisions have seen the biggest price declines from the peak, but will see the biggest gains when we return to a more stable market environment? "
It is my Opinion that the unsung hero is school dist 41, I feel that district will really lead the way, and in turn have the "the biggest gains"
Now to answer your questions Yes these are the only two public school districts.
Gilbert unified 41
Higley unified 60
Power Ranch, Yes great master planned community. I don't believe that the school servicing Power ranch is the cause in the decline. On any given school day you can watch the moms drive their kids to school in golf carts. The Power ranch schools receive a ton of parental involvement.
What is driving the prices down in the Ranch? Location it is still a ways out, and has a heavy rush hour.
Prices were run up because, it was ( is ) one of the best master planned communities.
Right now there is a lot of competition to sell, Re Sale, Short Sale, Lender Owned, and still local new construction.
Currently there are only 4 homes that meet your requirements, in dist 41, none in V. V. L.
Now in all of Gilbert there are 8 homes that meet your requirements Re sale and REO
I would be glad to email you a list, no obligation.
Good Day & Good Luck
Patrick mentioned two school districts - 41 and 60. Are these the only two in Gilbert?
Power Ranch looks (as far as an internet perspective) to be an attractive area, but is found in 60. Home prices seem to have dropped in a more pronounced manner there than other areas. What gives? Is this because of this difference in school districts or something else? It was voted one the best master planned communities.
Next question: Val Vista Lakes appears to be an attractive area as well. Can someone tell me what kind of market there is there for homes under 200k 4bedroom over 1700 sq ft.? Few/Many REO's? (If you'd like laugh all you want at this question but I've got all the time in the world.
The SanTan Mall area is also having impact in Gilbert, convenient shopping is important to many people. The mall has brought the convenient shopping and some level of employment.
A factor in the future will be the impact of road construction (improvement) and also the Williams Field campus. Williams Field is expected to be a major employment center in years to come.
The answer to your question is dependent on many factors, the above provides a limited outline of some external factors affecting Gilbert. How long you intend to own the home, what type of home, what price range, what size etc actually all have impact.
The areas hit hardest with the most likely significant recovery are the remote areas long term, some of the closer in areas will recovery quicker but may not have as much potential long term.
Other narrow factors enter in such as the builder, the orientation, floor plan etc.
Not intended to confuse you, I just don't think one answer fits all. So much depends on your needs, wants etc. I live in Gilbert myself, believe in it and understand it.
In all seriousness, Gilbert is kind of a toss-up. It's not necessarily close to centers of employment (Chandler would be the closest in terms of higher-income centers). It's still very much being built-up.
Gilbert has a lot going for it though. The new San Tan Village Mall features mid-to-high-end shops. Soon-to-be-built Main Street Commons just down the road from San Tan Village will feature even higher-end shops and is being billed as "the Kierland of the Southeast Valley." It's always a good sign when high-end retail comes to town because it mean, for the most part, these companies believe in the future of the area. Gilbert also has Mesa-Gateway Airport nearby which is seeing an explosion of growth and could very well become a viable second airport option ... pumping more money and visitors into the economy.
Housing near these locations (except maybe the airport) will see more of a return as the market rebounds. However, in no way should they be considered "big gains" as you mention. Much of Gilbert will continue to see home prices decline. Those areas that can sustain life without requiring a 45-minute drive to work or a 30-minute drive to get groceries or enjoy dining and nightlife will stabilize more quickly and eventually see better gains.