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Paul  Niehaus, Real Estate Pro in Grants Pass, OR

For the Folks out there waiting to be told that is it now OK' to buy - Why aren't buyers buying in this

Asked by Paul Niehaus, Grants Pass, OR Wed Mar 12, 2008

market??? Interest rates are great, inventory is up, it is THE time to buy. As a Realtor and Real Estate investor I really would like to hear from all of you out there!

Thanks,

Paul

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nobody trusts a bunch of cheerleader realtors on a realtor owned and operated website who are perceived to have a selfish interest in whooping up sales. So no matter how many realtors say "now is the time to buy, here is my weblink", the skepticism will prevail. One more realtor chanting will help not a whit.

When people read Bernake or Greenspan say "now is the time to buy" then things will pick up :-)

Much safer to buy on the way back up and miss the bottom, than guess at the bottom and be wrong on the way down right?

By the way... I am looking to buy - but I can't blame people who are scared literally stiff. I just figure Warren Buffet knew what he was talking about when he said "when others are fearful, be greedy - and when others are greedy, be fearful." So I figure it is the time for the smart contrarian to buy...CAREFULLY
3 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 12, 2008
I agree with a lot of what you have to say Mark. As a Broker, I would say that I am very enthusiastic about MY market. My post was meant to elicit points of view and I'm glad it has! I base my observations and information on the market (mine) based on our factual data of what our market has and is doing, not what some clod on TV says. As I write this, now in September, we have very low inventory (685) and high sales numbers (115) and Pendings (103). that's 218 sales/potential sales on 685 Actives. That's 31.4% of the inventory!! I'd say that my 'Cheerleading' was right in this instance. If the general public would take the time to really find a good and knowlegable agent that it taking the time to track their market and has real data to base their opinion on, they will be well served. One of the biggest problems that our industry has is that we are at times viewed only as a commodity and not true, hardworking professionals that do know what market trends are doing "on the street".
Flag Wed Oct 2, 2013
Paul,
There are many factors causing this situation

Banks and mortgage companies are going bankrupt. http://(www.MortgageGraveyard.com)

Prices are too high

Interest rates are too high

Over 1 million foreclosures last year. 2 million foreclosure expected this year. I'm going to guess 3 million foreclosures in 2009. Do you see the pattern? In my opinion this will continue into 2011. From the 2006 peak of the housing bubble, all the 2,3,5 year ARMs will reset.

Real estate is a risky investment right now. Many economists are saying "peak to trough" 15% declines in real estate values. In my opinion, they are being optimistic. Right now, nobody knows where the "bottom" is.

The FED cut interest rates drastically, and long term interest rates still going up. Do you know why? Because banks also know that real estate is risky business, banks have already lost billions. Many are going bankrupt. Do you know CountryWide bank? The biggest mortgage lender in the US. look at their stock CFC over the last year, what do you see? See the pattern?

Many people who qualifed for loans in the bubble period will not qualify for loans now, so this effectively reduces the number of qualified buyers. You are correct about "inventory is up", but that is not necessarily a good thing. There are many vacant houses, that bring down the values of neighboring houses.

Basically all the uneducated buyers have bought houses by now. Unfortunately, some of them will find themselves in the underwater situation, where they paid more for their house than it is worth. They are the future foreclosures I spoke of earlier.

In a way this area, Hampton roads, has avoided a direct hit. The crash here will happen more slowly, mostly because this has govt and military money flowing through the area. The US taxpayer is paying 94 billion per year for the war, and a bunch of that flows through this area. That could change soon, depends on the election. It will crash faster here if they pull the plug on the war.

The cost of renting is 1/2 the cost of buying. Many people say that housing prices are not aligned with rent and income, the way they were before the bubble.

Too many factors to list really. The smart buyer, right now, is waiting. They do not need to be told when to buy. Of course, if no sales for you, then you will be told when to sell.


ps the link is an article today about February 2008 Forclosures up 60%

If you want to see foreclosure listing in virginia goto
http://www.pasreo.com
http://www.iasreo.com

google REO there are many.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Mar 13, 2008
Paul and Mark,

I enjoyed Mark's reply. Personally I think Mark is 100% correct. Is this the time to buy, or better stated is this the time to begin looking and planning? We think that this question is really a regional question that needs to answered based on the area you are looking to buyer. For example, this is the worst time to be buying in Miami unless you are on the grown in Miami and can really work the market. Miami has 20-35% more to go. On the other hand, this may be a great time to be buying in San Diego or coastal South Carolina. San Diego has hundreds of beautiful condos at amazing prices and I am 100% that they will stay this way for long. Same with coastal SC, we have been selling their as fast as we can. Buy when you are ready....do your homework and pay attention to the local market.
Good Luck!
Marian Schaffer
The Schaffer Realty Group
http://www.marianschafferrealty.com
877-886-8388
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Mar 13, 2008
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