There is no way to predict which approach will work better for you. What I can tell you is, if you are interested in a particular home and you think it's priced too high (and it's been on the market for at least 3 weeks), my best recommendation to you is to make an offer that you think makes sense to you. Get it in. If you wait for them to drop the price, someone else may make an offer and beat you to the punch. If you make YOUR offer, the seller can choose to negotiate with you or not but, if they stay on the market and get no other offers, they just migh come back to you down the road. Always make an offer if you wish to make a purchase. Just make the offer that YOU want...
To give a simple answer to your question - "is it better to make a low offer now, or wait " - my advice is MAKE the offer now - if you wait for a price drop, you could be dealing with competiton from other buyers who were waiting for the price drop, too. If the home is newly listed, the seller might not be receptive to an offer 10% below the list price, BUT........go on record and make your offer - you have nothing to lose. If they don't accept it, or choose not to negotiate further with you at this time, you can always wait , and resubmit your offer at a later time. A listing of mine is closing this Monday at a price that the seller originally rejected when the house was first listed. The buyer waited, and resubmitted his same offer 3 months later. The owner finally accepted it (not happily, but accepted it nonetheless). The offer was 13% below original list price.
In this market, time is usually on the buyer's side. Some sellers may never reduce their list price - these are not motivated sellers. You can't predict what a seller will do, however - make that offer and find out.
As others have said, rely on your realtor for up to the minute advice on your area and comparable listings.
Good luck with your offer!
Work with agent that knows the market in your area. What I tell my clients
both buyers and sellers is an offers is just the start of real talk. If you have additional
questions or need an agent feel free to call and direct them to me.
My Direct # 347-813-1290.
Here is my website http://fajardodelacruz.realtors.officelive.com
or my e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org
Hope to hear from you soon.