i am also finding some properties purchased in 2006 listed substantially above their purchase price. my opinion is that prices up here are a bit high and that by september prices will drop as people realize they are going to be stuck with an unsold house another winter.
i heard from an area realtor that about 10 houses sold in arrowhead woods in may 2008. fyi there are about 350 realtors in the area.
i suggest asking your realtor what they think the spread is then asking him/her for the data and doing your own analysis. hopefully the numbers will match.
we are still looking for a place up here. waiting a year has obviously helped us quite a bit on price. recent data i have gotten from the mountain mls (from various agents) indicates about 260 houses sold up here in the last year. of those, about 20% (~57) were priced at or above 500K. i have a spreadsheet of each of these sales. the spread between the INITIAL LIST PRICE and the SALE price is about 15%. note that this does not take into account freshened listings, where the agent has taken a house off the market for 30 days then put back on (which happens a lot during the winter). i know that some of the houses on my list have been freshened but dont have data going back to the previous listing.
the spread between most recent ask and sale price is 5%. the spread between initial ask and sale in the 700K+ range is greater, at 19%. the spread between last ask and sale is 8%. considering all sales in the last 3 months, the spreads are 18% and 8%.
19 houses sold in the 500-600k range.
8 houses sold in the 600-700k range
10 sold in the 700-800k range
10 sold 800k-1M
~9 sold 1M+ (i think there was another one on palisades that sold right after i got my data).
the average days on market for these solds in 210 days.
there are approx 150 houses on the market right now in the 500K+ price range (according to a realtor up here). 150 / 57 = 2.63 years of supply. clearly some of these houses will either come back off the market in oct/nov or have to lower their price to move. personally i feel like these sellers are chasing the market down. while the lower priced houses are selling a bit more, the 500K+ price range has a lot of issues pushing price down (no move up buyers, poor economy, etc). regardless of what some people/realtors say, there arent that many people willing/able to drop 1M cash on a house these days.
i still see a lot of these 500K+ houses listed for above what they paid in 2005-2007. while some people do upgrade a place, a new wood floor and paint does not equal 200K. while every house is different we have looked at about 40% (60+) of these houses. it is rare that we see enough work to justify a higher price that 2007.
The price is clearly determined by what a buyer is willing to pay....and what a seller is willing to accept at any given time.
Just to clarify things and I mean this in the most humble way possible there are not 350 Realtors up here the number is in fact somwhere in the mid 200's. The exact number of strictly Arrowhead Woods homes that carry "Lake Rights" that sold in May of this year 2008 was 22. Which was down from a total 28 comparing May 2008 to May 2007.
I hope you find this information to be helpful in your research.
Lake Arrowhead Real Estate
When dealing with pricing, keep in mind that many of the homes on the market in Lake Arrowhead are 2nd homes to many people. In economic time such as these, second home markets sometimes take a "hit' with regards to home values.
When I work with buyers in Lake Arrowhead, I educate them about each and every property that interests them. For instance, I have access to who owns the property, how much is owed on the property, if that property is in fact a 2nd home, or the seller's primary residence, area comps, etc. All of these factors, as well as the time the home has been on the market, do factor in when it comes time for my buyers to make an appropriate offer.
When I represent sellers of Lake Arrowhead homes, a lot of the same issues factor in when correctly pricing the home for a prompt sale. Being experienced as a Realtor in the Lake Arrowhead area, as well as the orange County and Los Angeles areas, affords me and my sellers the maximum exposure to buyers from many different areas.
I hope this helps. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions or need first rate real estate assistance. I must say, with both pride and humility, that my success has earned me recognition as one of the "Top Producers" in sales and service world wide, with Coldwell Banker Previews International.
Hope to hear from you soon....my best to you.
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Thanks for asking.....Lisa Seifert