Trulia Voices: Open Opinion Thread: "Why should someone buy in this market?"

Answer by Dan Chase

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 19:39:30 -0800

Zack, try asking if the one service is better than another in your own question in the Q&A section. Odds are no one will see it here that could give a good reply.

Answer by Steve

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 13:28:25 -0800

Credit crunch: Home equity lending evaporates Hock the house? Home equity lending evaporates as real estate values fall, banks get stingy http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Credit-crunch-Home-equity-apf-1280606101.html?x=0

Answer by Steve

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 12:38:27 -0800

November new home sales sink 11 percent http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-new-home-sales-sink-apf-1326075865.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= This recovery is full steam ahead!

Answer by John Palmisano

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 12:15:20 -0800

Housing inventory levels lowest since April 2006: http://www.benzinga.com/70547/recovery-existing-home-sales-highest-since-feb-2007-inventory-levels-lowest-since-april-2006

Answer by John Palmisano

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 12:09:53 -0800

Manfacturing turning the corner. https://www.bernstein.com/CmsObjectPC/pdfs/EconomicUpdates/B64682_EconomicUpdate_JC_091106.pdf Unemployment drops http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0432007920091204

Answer by John Palmisano

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 12:06:42 -0800

Manfacturing turning the corner. https://www.bernstein.com/CmsObjectPC/pdfs/EconomicUpdates/B64682_EconomicUpdate_JC_091106.pdf

Answer by Zackufucio

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 10:58:38 -0800

Dear Forum members, I just found a great web hosting service host1plus, but still don‘t know are they good enough to change my existing company bluehost (bluehost.com) ? Have you tried host1plus (host1plus.com) ? Any comments about this web hosting service? Another thing which I would like to know do you know any other web hosting companies apart of host1plus which provides hosting in the Netherlands? I apologies if this post have been posted to not the right section. Thank you in advance!

Answer by Bgcgreality

Sat, 26 Dec 2009 03:42:58 -0800

[url=http://bg.cgreality.ru]Недвижимость в Болгарии[/url] очень прибыльное и выгодное вложение, для покупателя. Приобретая недвижимость в Болгарии Вы надежно вкладываете свои денежные средства и, кроме того, получаете квартиру или дом на берегу моря. Для граждан России покупка квартиры в Болгарии проблем не составляет. Вид на жительство получает каждый, кто открывает бизнес или приобретает недвижимость в Болгарии. Недвижимость в Болгарии обойдется Вам намного дешевле, чем в России на Черноморском побережье. [url=http://bg.cgreality.ru]болгария недвижимость[/url]

Answer by Steve

Fri, 25 Dec 2009 18:44:26 -0800

SubPrime Mortgage Mess Explained (with voice) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8hjUei-Nwo

Answer by Steve

Fri, 25 Dec 2009 18:41:16 -0800

Unemployment funds going ‘absolutely broke’ 40 state programs to be emptied by the jobless tsunami within two years http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:mHJ7q3CzvfwJ:www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34519544/+%22States%E2%80%99+Jobless+Funds+Going+%E2%80%98Absolutely+Broke%E2%80%99%22&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a

Answer by Cgcgreality

Thu, 24 Dec 2009 13:45:36 -0800

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Answer by Steve

Thu, 24 Dec 2009 10:14:46 -0800

Berkshire Eliminates 21,000 Jobs as Manufacturing, Retail Slump http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4oPPj5mh100&pos=5 The oracle of omaha is swinging at a big recovery.....he will miss.

Answer by Steve

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 09:16:40 -0800

November new home sales sink 11 percent http://finance.yahoo.com/news/November-new-home-sales-sink-apf-1326075865.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= This recovery is full steam ahead!

Answer by Steve

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:10:59 -0800

More homes are poised to hit the market A 'shadow' inventory of properties close to foreclosure or seized but not yet for sale has been growing. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures18-2009dec18%2C0%2C3770149.story 2009 buyers are 2010's foreclosures.(at a minimum they will be upside down)

Answer by Steve

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:09:25 -0800

US jobseekers face bleak Christmas as unemployment rises http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/20/us-unemployment-rate-rise-continues Drastically lower prices for homes await the patient renter.

Answer by Steve

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:07:52 -0800

Do not buy in NJ! NJ worst states in America For Starting A Business http://www.businessinsider.com/15-worst-states-for-entrepreneurs-2009-12#1-new-jersey-15

Answer by Steve

Tue, 22 Dec 2009 20:48:19 -0800

Seven U.S. Banks Are Seized, Raising Year’s Failure Toll to 140 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA4tDKBIB6Ek&pos=4

Answer by Paul Francis - Las Vegas Real Estate & Summerlin Homes

Sat, 19 Dec 2009 21:44:05 -0800

Nice link Dan, Knowing the history of what happens when it comes to transparency when it comes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... it is more then likely that it will be even more.... I wonder if Barney Frank is still saying everything is just fine? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgctSIL8Lhs

Answer by Dan Chase

Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:17:25 -0800

A new wrinkle in mortgage financing may be fast approaching. Fannie, Freddie Overseer May Seek More Treasury Aid http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ay8TEnSIckUk It appears that fannie and freddie are having worse problems than expected. They may BOTH be looking to get another $400 billion each. That is $800 billion for the pair. Although the article does not mention the amount the concept is simple. Fannie and freddie amy not be able to make more risky loans in the very close future.

Answer by Steve

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 08:14:15 -0800

Foreclosure buyer demand dips as supply mounts. NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home buyers are less willing to buy foreclosed properties than they were six months ago, citing risks like hidden costs, but demand could grow because of the government’s expanded tax credit, a survey showed on Tuesday. Housing Market A continued drop in demand for the glut of foreclosed properties would add a fresh layer of pain to a housing market just emerging from a three-year nosedive. The percentage of Americans at least somewhat likely to consider buying a foreclosed home fell to 43 percent in November, sharply below May’s 55 percent, according to a survey by Harris Interactive. The survey was conducted November 5-9 on behalf of Trulia.com, a real estate search engine, and RealtyTrac, which tracks foreclosures. Buyer expectations are becoming more realistic, Trulia Chief Executive Pete Flint said on a conference call. Next year “government interventions will start to disappear, shadow inventory will hit the market and mortgage rates will start to rise” to around 6 percent from under 5 percent, he said. “We’re in a false state of stability.” Shadow inventory includes houses that banks now hold but have yet to put up for sale.

Answer by Steve

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:29:46 -0800

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1260928800.php Full Circle of Govt Debt Default The continuation of the bank dominoes took 14 months, but it occurred. The initial destructive impact craters were carved in the United States and England. To be sure, major damage was done to assets in Spain and Greece and other smaller nations in the last year, but their banks had remained insulated. The discredit and death of the central bank franchise system showed first clear evidence in September 2008 on Wall Street. The unique mysterious aspect of banking systems is how they cannot be rebuilt once they turn insolvent. They rot in place, a process accelerated by rotten ethical values, euphemistically called moral hazard. To be sure, much so-called money flows through the dead rotten parts, but nothing becomes resuscitated except balance sheets. And besides, those balance sheets only look better due to accounting rules changes that deviate from mark to market (reality). The distortions magnify and turn cancerous. See the outsized mortgage bonds with no value at all. See the foreclosed homes withheld from the market for sale in bloated bank inventory. See the big bank balance sheets with large entries of idle money sitting in the US Federal Reserve. The dirtiest American secret in the banking world is not monetization of bonds. It is that US banks are deeply insolvent and would have suffered a worse fate in the last year if not for extortion from TARP funds as well as rescue funds coming from syndicate contraband accounts.

Answer by Paul Francis - Las Vegas Real Estate & Summerlin Homes

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:11:03 -0800

Interesting... kind of reminds me of speculation from the opposite side right before the bubble of people running around saying appreciation is 12% plus.. Then... Like Now... it's the cash on cash returns (investment properties) or cash flow savings (primary home) that matters... All the rest is.... speculation.

Answer by Steve

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 08:43:45 -0800

Number seven is dead on regarding realty! Ten Top Tips for Investors In 2010 By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money -- Posted Tuesday, 15 December 2009 1. Stay out of all equities. This is a monstrous valuation bubble driven up by zero interest rates. Rates have to go up, and stock markets down. Markets will correct when something reminds them that this is the future outlook. 2. The dollar rally has further to go, and the dollar will go higher as equities fall, so keep to cash and treasuries until the dollar tops out. 3. No need to diversify into foreign currencies in 2010, except for dollar-linked currencies like the UAE dirham that offer higher interest rates and an explicit government guarantee on all deposits. 4. Buy gold and silver on price weakness when the US dollar rally tops out, and oil stocks. 5. Beware emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, China and India. What has gone up in a hurry will crash in a heap. 6. This will be the ‘Year of the Short’ so, if you want to play the market look to options or short ETFs. 7. Real estate is locked in a downtrend. Interest rates are very low, and real estate only bottoms out when rates are high. 8. Stay liquid for the lifetime buying opportunities that will follow a big crash. Then buy when Warren Buffett says. 9. Do remember to save some of what you earn for future investment opportunities which otherwise tend to occur when you have no savings. 10. Remember that in an era of low interest rates the value of a job is considerable because it would take a much higher capital sum to earn the same in interest. Look after your job.

Answer by Steve

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:48:12 -0800

October's Transportation Services Index tumbles to eight-year low In October, the Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.9 percent from September’s level to 98.0 — the lowest October index since 2001, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). The TSI also declined 8.7 percent compared with October 2008’s index. October’s Freight TSI decreased 1.2 percent from September level’s level to 94.5, the lowest October index since 1996 and second-straight month-over-month decline. The Freight TSI also fell 10.5 percent from October 2008’s level — the largest October-to-October drop in the 20 years BTS has calculated the TSI. October’s Passenger TSI declined 0.1 percent from September’s level to 110.3. On a year-over-year basis, the index decreased 3.1 percent. The greater depression rocks on!

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:56:32 -0800

@ Dan, there is a big difference between 27 acres and an old house for $137k is a big difference from the $100k for 40 acres +/- acres with a modern house you keep talking about waiting for. You noted Zillow says It sold for $78k not that long ago (how long is not that long ago and were there any improvements to the property since purchased) FYI: Zillow is does not have a very accurate AVM (Automated Valuation Model) I find the values estimated in their tool to be USUALLY "WAY OFF" so take those numbers with a grain of salt. You're better off looking in tax records at recent sales 3-6 months and if not a pre or foreclosure sale add some money back on to that price as those sales tend to be accepted at lower prices than traditional sales where the buyer doesn't have to wait 10 months or more for an answer to their offer. Throwing out numbers and statements with no factual base on blogs like this while attacking, belittling and defaming professionals like myself trying to get the story straight is reckless. I'd get slammed for throwing out random statements like that so expect you to be held to the same standard if you wish to be taken seriously by fellow bloggers looking for information and advice. You said 27 acres is a bit small for a lot, what are you planning to start a farm? Most folks I know are lucky to have .25 acres that is a 1/4 of an acre and pay upwards of three times that amount for it. I but those are the options that must be weighed when making a purchase decision and deciding which features are most important in your decision making process. Small town country living is beautiful and usually does have much cheaper pricing than the more modern homes in larger cities and metro areas however wanting to live on a farm within 5 minutes of the city for a tenth or less of the price is not really living in reality. That is probably the dream for millions of people but you've got to realize that is just a dream. This is part of every real estate professionals duties, going over a clients, wants and needs, their finances and then performing a reality check followed by shopping and eventually a purchase. Leave out one of those components, work with a client that wants to skip one of those parts and you'll find inexperienced agents working with a client that will never buy, or at least until they hookup with another agent that will sit down and go over these very important details with their clients and take the time to educate them.

Answer by Dan Chase

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:37:15 -0800

Victor, I did see a property in tennessee with 27 acres and a house for $137k. It is an old house and location makes a huge difference. I may just make a lower offer in a month or 2. Although the lot is a bit small, so I might reconsider. FYI. Zillow says It sold for $78k not that long ago. LARGE 2 STORY FARMHOUSE 27 ACRES 3 BARNS SMOKEHOUSE NATURAL SPRING WORKSHOP & STORAGE BUILDINGS (not that I need 3 barns or a smokehouse) For years we have heard of big city pricing. I prefer small town affordability. I just need to make sure it is close to an area that has the things I require. It should be. But who knows if the request fits the details I asked for. I have a lot more research to do on this property.

Answer by Paul Francis - Las Vegas Real Estate & Summerlin Homes

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:19:52 -0800

House flipping is alive and well in Las Vegas. Coming across it all over in the past couple of months. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126022588878780861.html As for representing buyers in purchasing a flip... you just need the right Mortgage Broker. The HUGE Benefit that I came across for some of my investors that don't have the time to rehab a garbage REO is that the work was already done. Case in point... Cash investor purchased a bulk deal of homes from a lender... rehabbed the properties and then put in tenants. Properties put back up for sale at fair market value. Positive cash flow... no banks on the selling side to deal with... no contractors to rehab... etc.. etc.. For long term investors it's a pretty sweet deal... Certainly better then buying REO's in our particular market.

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:12:40 -0800

Oh Dan I forgot to address your comment about wanting to make flipping illegal for 12 months. Besides being a conservative myself and being for less government intruding into our lives rather than more. That is a silly idea, think about it for a second. Most people don't have the cash to buy a home and pay it off in one shot and therefore will need to qualify for a mortgage. The banks do check the sales history, run comps and get appraisals, so flipping doesn't work the way you make it sound. For a home to be bought and sold in under a year, the flipper would have to be able to show the buyers lender justification to the increased value of the home which they are flipping. Many times this is done by showing proof that renovations or something has been done to justify the sudden increase in price or they will not give a loan to the new buyer. Remember the lenders main priority is securing their investment and must ensure they are not just throwing money out the window for an asset that is not worth what they are lending someone to pay for it.

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:05:38 -0800

@ Steve, as Dan said in a previous post look at the community guidelines. http://www.trulia.com/guidelines/ 3 BE CONSIDERATE do not attack other community members. Be respectful at all times. You are definitely in violation of that guideline. There is no reason or need to personally attack people. Calling me a liar then trying to equate the real estate market as a sky is falling scenario telling me to search youtube for "police brutality" videos is just a slight stretch there don't ya think? I take that back, if you thought you wouldn't have writen it. @ Ron that is so very true, I can tell you that the renters looking for options to buy or lease to own type transactions have increased exponentially over the last 3 years. This is why many short sale investors have come out of the wood works grabbing the deals that are to be had and want to be matched up with these types of renter/buyers. About the market speculators, I don't care much for them if you couldn't already tell but they have been out there, speculating and effecting prices based on those speculations and making money in the process either betting for or against the market, so I'd have to say theat the speculators aren't losing anything really. The people in the markets for which they speculate usually do. Remember this past years oil speculation out of control causing fuel prices to climb to all time highs? The problem is speculators aren't regulated. @ Dan your confusing speculators aka hedge fund and stock brokers with investors, who are actually buying properties themselves. In the case of real estate market speculators don't buy homes, they buy and sell derivitives which effect or are affected by home sales. As an investor that quotes so many articles he can find online I'd figure you would have known that already. Aparently your possibly just an ill informed buyer with unrealistic expectations. I noted that 40 acre quote again that your looking for under $100K. FYI people don't BID on short sales as if it were an auction, the process isn't really that timely or swift. Offers need to be accepted by a seller first and then passed on to the banks for approval which can take upward of 10 months on average waiting for an answer. Dan your not being completely honest or you may think you are and just fooling yourself being blinded by your own misfortunes or lousy experiences, passing them on to others as the status quo. At least that's what I'm getting out of your constant attacks and being one of those folks offering my hand to help as you slap it away, even tho it wasn't being offered to you directly. If you seek short sales, I suggest listening to your agent that specializes in them. Chances are they may know a little bit more about how to get those deals accepted than you. And the answer isn't usually stomping your feet after a low ball offer wasn't accepted.

Answer by Dan Chase

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:09:17 -0800

Victor, I guess the concept or trying to educate others so they do not make a costly mistake is beyond your comprehension. Believe it or not. Some people in this world have been hurt by certain things and only want others not to suffer from circumstances that could be avoided. That is true whether those circumstances are similar or dissimilar to what was gone through. Watch the Dave Ramsey show on fox business channel at 8 pm est. He has said he made all the mistakes. He went through some real bad financial times. Now because of that he has a heart to help others. He can understand what it means to have lost to much and is trying to help others also improve their lot in life. It is sad you do not believe that anyone could really do that. Just try to share useful information with people so they make better decisions. In the end a lot of people ignore any such help that is offered. But for the few who will listen it is worth the effort to try. In another area I have tried to help people also. No way that could have given me one penny in profit. It all comes down to the same thing for me. Some people lack information and if they receive it they may listen and make a better life decision. In the end, I will never know how many if any have listened or appreciated the effort. If only one does it is worth the attempt. Some people are so filled with doubt, suspicion, and fear they can not accept an open hand. They always think the other hand is trying to reach into their wallet. People like that always will have my sympathy, but seldom my ear for long. They always try to see an angle and have to make something up if they do not see any profit to one who just tries to help. Then there is the person who is so greedy they only see dollars as having value they can not imagine others not being equally greedy. It must be sad to have no soul like that.

Answer by Dan Chase

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:45:02 -0800

We had a tech stock bubble back about 2001 that broke badly. Sky high prices that went flat quickly. We are in a housing bubble now. The only difference is it is taking longer to deflate. Houses take longer to liquidate than stocks do. And people are more likely to hold onto a house losing value longer than they would a stock. Ron, I agree that speculation is a bad thing. Most who engage in speculation lose their shirts. A few make enough that the next sucker comes along hoping it will be them. That was what drove up house prices and now is allowing to to go back to normal pricing. LACK of speculation (and its financing) is helping the real estate market to come back to normal as it did in the tech bubble. The problem is not the speculator today. It is the person who ignores the coming foreclosures and then buys only to lose serious money in a year or 2 because house prices dropped. The problem is they pay much more every month than they would have if they had just waited awhile longer. I think it better to wait for a year and pay $150 a month less for 30 years than to be in a hurry and pay more for almost the rest of their life. Once prices go back to pre-bubble valuations I will be glad to buy. Not until then. If a great deal came up today I would go after it. But every time I see something decent it is either 1 gone or 2 having the wrong information in the summary. Like 40 acres but is really a one acre lot. (house included) It gets disgusting. If a speculator buys a foreclosure or short sale and loses money that is great. Usually all they do is drive up prices to the one who could have bought and rehabbed the same building if they had been given a chance to. I would be in complete favor of a banking rule, or legislation that said home occupiers would be the only ones who could bid on a foreclosure or short sale for the first 90 to 180 days. Making flipping illegal to do in under 12 months would also be a good idea. BOTH ideas would do one thing. Give potential home buyers including me a chance to buy properties before the greedy investors who only want to flip it would have a chance. That would truly make houses more affordable. Since some houses would not sell do to bad condition the opportunity for the speculator would still exist. But it would be the third chance, not the first one. Most investors think DOM is a good way to negotiate on a house so it would not block them completely from being in the market. They can have the leftovers.Of course, any normal sale would be open to anyone wanting to buy. Regarding property taxes. The towns will need to keep their big budgets financed. It may be possible to fight a valuation this year. All it will do is to increase the mil rate next year. In the end what the town charges for your yearly "town service rental" will go up in dollar terms. It happened before. They raised valuations and dropped the mil rate. Taxes went up. Now they will drop the valuations and increase the mil rates. Taxes will go up. the town increased their $15 million budget and the property owners will end up paying for that 3% inflation adjustment the town needs. There is no way around it unless you close down the schools.

Answer by Ron

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 10:18:27 -0800

The sky will continue to fall for all those people follow bad advice! But for those who recognize the truth and who are looking to make money in this market by being smart, and buying based on the investment itself, NOT SPECULATION, they will do quite fine. Just always do your home work before you buy, and don't let anyone discourage you from achieving your goals. As far as renting is concerned, you would be better off looking for an owner-financing deal, where you can put maybe 5-10% down and get the seller to finance the balance of the purchase for 3-5 years or more. Or you could do a lease with the option to buy for 3-5 years, SELLERS ARE VERY MOTIVATED THESE DAYS! I am getting between 5-10 seller finance leads a week across Illinois!

Answer by Steve

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 07:54:08 -0800

"You're attempts to convince people that the sky is falling on this site for your own personal gain in obvious. " Telling the truth is the path of least resistance Vic. In every way America is collapsing to be sure. Lookup "police brutality" on youtube. Tell me why Americans are the enemy of the government. 2.3M Americans are incarcerated in the land of the free. Vic will nurse his illusions while I embrace the truth.

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:59:30 -0800

Not true, Steve (the pretend real estate broker) but then again I doubt you ever did a real estate appeal personally before since your a renter. It's nice how you post bogus statistics with no sources or proof. 98% of all real estate tax appeals in New Jersey are denied? Coming from a person who's profile lies about being a real estate broker forgive me if I don't take you for your word on those stats, especially being from another state all together I doubt your familiar with real estate issues and procedures here. Oh my coming out of that wealthy investor shell to actually admit you run in circles of people who buy cars with gold. No surprise! My guess your a stock or hedge fund guy betting against the market and trading in gold as well. I'm sure some of your clients and friends are buying cars with gold, something the average joe can't relate to. You're attempts to convince people that the sky is falling on this site for your own personal gain in obvious. Wow, Steve you didn't strike me as a Fox guy, that really is the best news station. That's the only place we agree.

Answer by Steve

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:55:42 -0800

"Not true, at least in the New Jersey and most other markets I'm aware of. Real Estate taxes can always be appealed." 98% of appeals are denied. Appeals are run by the people benefiting from higher taxation. States cannot print their own money so it is guaranteed that states will raise taxes until the pitchforks and guillotines come back. I know of several people that buy cars for gold. Seeing more and more of this. Americans are going to be very late to the gold and silver game...Asians are buying hand over fist on the dips! Americans will buy the top out of these markets years from now after abccbsnbc says it is ok to buy gold.

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:27:54 -0800

Well people aren't buying cars or homes with gold bullion these days and all the comparisons of and talk of gold in this thread is irrelevant investor speak. I for one being someone in the real estate business dealing with hundreds of transactions per year have never met anyone or heard of anyone buying a home or a car with gold. Maybe in the rich investment banker crowd but those people don't run in the same circles and most folks to rub shoulders with so that one post with all the gold references is pretty irrelevant. On of the spin masters said "I have seen it said that it does not matter if Prices continue to decline. It will only matter what prices are when you sell." Who said that? Actually what I have seen said and said myself was in response to a lot of the investor talk, (often the same people on trulia pretending to be buyers, sellers or real estate agents using these profiles to spread misinformation and usually those that always seem to talk down to realtors and the real estate market to promote their agendas outcome.) What I've said is, if you constantly tell people buying now they will lose tons of money because values will go down a little more in a couple months. That statement would mainly effect investors & flippers who will sell in the next couple months or short sell stocks. Otherwise the statement is just flat wrong because those who buy a home for their families to live and grow old in won't likely be selling during this brief down period. What a reach for straws to spin and weave any string they can grab at. These forums are so unreliable these days with spin masters like this at large. Advice to any serious buyer, renter or landlord, contact a real estate pro directly for data and local market information to help make your decisions vs hucksters here online. With the lack of moderation in these forums for accuracy or direct deception of people representing themselves as real estate brokers when they clearly are not makes it hard to disseminate the good from the bad, unfortunately making this site a worse and worse resource. These hucksters also will now spin and tell you investing in stocks is risky, that's true but they do it for a living anyway and several of the regularly extremely negative people that troll this site constantly making these sky is falling posts usually are the stock and commodities short sellers which have plenty to gain the worse the market does. So these people troll sites like these spreading mis information and fear to the public. The thing they wont tell you is how to make a killing in the market by gambling that the real estate market will tank via short selling as previously noted in articles addressing these same folks as they flip flop their good guy persona when confronted. It is was said "Yet now that values are going down the taxes are not going down. " Not true, at least in the New Jersey and most other markets I'm aware of. Real Estate taxes can always be appealed. Be sure to check with your local municipality and perhaps an attorney or appraisers that specializes in tax reassessments for your areas rules and regulations for these appeals. Usually an appeal can only be filed between certain dates each year.

Answer by Dan Chase

Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:42:48 -0800

I have seen it said that it does not matter if Prices continue to decline. It will only matter what prices are when you sell. I would disagree. Not everyone buys a house to resell. Some (like me) buy it to live and then die of extreme old age in. Most people I know have been in the same house for decades. The rest have just not lived long enough for it to be decades yet. For that person there is no ROI involved. If they buy a house at a higher than needed price (it fell $50k after I bought) they either 1 paid to much cash for it and almost (1-4 years) immediately recognize their loss of capital. or 2 Their monthly payment is always going to be higher than it should have been. For 30 years they are paying more every single month than they needed to. Paying to much could even affect the taxes they pay forever.(California) Investing in stocks is risky. I know someone who has lots almost 3/4 of what I have saved (in banks and credit unions) in the stock market. Hopefully they will recover. Investing in options up or down is far riskier still. All it takes is being wrong by one day to lose everything. I lost in the market (crash of 1987) when I needed money from my mutual fund in 1989. Since then I have never trusted it. I never got that $350 back. I never will. The only case shiller chart I really know of is the one showing the house price changes from 1890 to 2006 (or so) thanks to Glenn Beck's show. You can find that on utube. It is the only one I have ever referenced. Since I have seen several reports made on that same chart by many news organizations. I did see one report saying they had agreed that prices went up recently during the $8k bribe period. but never saw a chart on it. You might be surprised at how many people got upset over their houses value going up. They are going to live there and only see taxes take more of their money for no benefit to them as a home owner. There are many cases here of people paying MORE in taxes than they paid for the house in the 60's or 70's. Yet now that values are going down the taxes are not going down. The theory was all wrong. People can afford to pay taxes because the house has increased in value. Yet the taxes do not drop when the values do. Maine had a interesting statistic. It has one of the highest ownership rates in the country BUT had much fewer people able to buy now if they had to buy at the high prices. I am not sure when this came out. Might have been 2004 might have been early his year. Other states have a lot of move from house to house mentality. Maine is a buy it and stay there kind of state.

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:52:15 -0800

@ Dan & Steve clearly two investors that have a lot to gain by short selling stocks affected by the real estate market when it performs poorly. First both you guys say you are not investors and play the part of a real estate agent and a buyer when clearly you are not and then personally attack me when I refute your posts are cite sources. Grow up! Oh @ Dan one more thing, you said in one of your posts "Victor, look at the case-shilling map of house prices adjusted for inflation from 1890 to 2006 (or so) It shows how badly house prices are still out of whack with historical values. " Well it's 2009, so 1890 to 2006 is not relevant to the current real estate market or conditions to OR not to buy or rent now. How slick trying to sell your negativity using untimely data. Typical

Answer by Dan Chase

Sun, 06 Dec 2009 12:45:58 -0800

Why do I tell people about the coming foreclosures and other related problems you ask. Many people have no idea what is going on in the market. They do not even know that houses can have problems. They are very naive. They only know a house will keep them warm and dry. They are staring at a blank chalkboard. They have started by writing one thing and only one thing on that board. "I want a house. " They have very few if any thoughts on what else to write down so they will make smart buying decisions. Many do not even realize what it will cost to live in a house once they buy it. They think the mortgage cost is it. I need to pay water, and sewer fees, hoa fees (poor city people) heating, electricity, and even do my own repairs. No one told me I would have to worry about repairs. Many are not aware that taxes and insurance are very likely to go up every year. They think a mortgage at a fixed rate is a fixed cost. (I will have to pay $1,000 a month for 30 years, never more) If it includes insurance and taxes ( as most do) it will go up. PITI isn't it? (pun intended) They do not know anything else about the process. Some do not know that a real estate agent can help them. Some think a realtor will charge them when it is not so (for most new purchases). They are unaware of pricing trends. They do not know what happened over the past few years that created a housing bubble or that it is still deflating. They do not know that millions more foreclosures are coming. They are not informed about the basic realities that real estate is facing today and will face tomorrow. Once they see something that points out other facts they have the opportunity to further investigate those facts and make a decision based on their further research done for their area. Over at least the last 18 months many realtors were saying prices have dropped, it is a great time to buy. People listened and now have lost $20k, or $50k or more. Had someone told them about the real problems that are plain to see about coming foreclosures they either would not have bought OR would have offered much less. Ask those who overpaid last year what they would have thought about someone telling them about the coming foreclosures when they were looking to buy. The vast majority of them would have been very grateful and made a different decision. Is it really so hard for you to think that some people just try to look out for and help other people by giving them relevant information? Sorry, wrong question. I just remembered where you are from. Country people try to look out for each other. A lot of big city people sadly, seem to be very different.

Answer by Dan Chase

Sun, 06 Dec 2009 11:17:11 -0800

Victor, you just confused me. You say the index is wrong and then show it says something you like. Which thought pattern is really yours? Do you believe it or not? Victor, look at the community guidelines. http://www.trulia.com/guidelines/ 3 BE CONSIDERATE do not attack other community members. Be respectful at all times. You are definitely in violation of that guideline. There is no reason or need to personally attack people. It is true, as I saw awhile ago that case-shiller has said that prices have seemed to stabilize. But we also have to be concerned about effect of temporary measures that will affect pricing and THEN GO AWAY. We know the federal reserve is going to stop buying mortgage backed securities very soon. We know that FHA is having serious bottom line trouble now. We know that interest rates will soon be going up. The buyers credit will stop. Interest rates will increase. All of that strongly suggests that prices will go lower. The real reason to look at case shiller is to see what prices have done in the past. Yes, the case shiller index DOES include inflation. Almost no one had $100,000 back in 1890. If anyone did they never had to work if they had that money at age 18. http://www.page88.co.za/cr/housingshiller.shtml Some factors helped to drive up the price of real estate in the United States that creates the housing bubble: The GSEs (Fannie and Freddie), the Community Reinvestment Act, expansionary monetary policy (including very low interest rates) starting in 2001. The 1997 Taxpayer Relief Act that for the first time let people avoid capital gains on home price appreciation without having to rollover the gains into a bigger house. There have been several housing bubbles in the past followed by corrections. They were just not as big as this one. When you can see that prices have been relatively stable until the past decade or so that shows a bubble. Yes, government interference can slow that bubble down or even reverse it for a short time but in the end the market forces will bring prices back down. I agree that economists see future problems 30 out of 4 times. And miss problems they should have seen. I have no financial gain from posting anything. I have no service to offer. Do you? I do know after reading your posts just in this thread I would not hire you for anything. You have an attitude that says anything but "professional". There are other professionals who have posted on here I would hire from what I have seen of their postings. They are always on target and professional. I might disagree with a few details here or there that they post. But they do post in a professional and reasonable manner. I never expect anyone to be in 100% agreement with me 100% of the time. If that happens it means we are both wrong at some time or other.

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Sat, 05 Dec 2009 22:36:18 -0800

Oh no!!! Another article slamming Case-Shiller index and reports and its accuracy. http://www.californiahousingforecast.com/commentary/2007/6/1/case-shiller-index-is-fatally-flawed.html http://realestate.yahoo.com/info/news/real-estate-outlook-case-shiller-index http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/toscano/article_734990ac-145e-564a-977b-38934937bc5e.html http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/Meissner%20Satchell.pdf http://www.newsneconomics.com/2009/07/s-case-shiller-housing-index-probably.html You'll like this one, according to case-shiller real estate is looking up and gives your good reason to buy now. lol... http://themortgagereports.com/2009/05/case-shiller-home-price-index-march-2009-home-values-stable.html

Answer by Steve

Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:21:25 -0800

Vic, Real estate is done so stick a fork in it. Go on to bigger and better asset classes like silver.....buy it on the dips...it is a major industrial metal as well as a monetary metal. Real estate is so yesterday dude!

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Sat, 05 Dec 2009 15:15:01 -0800

@ Dan who wrote "Had you watched some of the same news programs I did and looked online for foreclosure and mortgage meltdown you would also find case schiller and more like I have. Plus when you look at posts on here and zillow you will find similar links posted by others who have done their homework. Knowledge is a wonderful thing to share." Listen, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 & 10 metropolitan regions versions across the United States but do so indiscriminately, condos, townhouses, single, multi-family, rural areas mixed in with big cities all grouped together to get average sales then groups several distant metro areas together to make a region guesstimate based on the index and is published with a two month lag on the last Tuesday of every month. Not the right way to determine the value of a particular home in a particular area, this is strictly an investors tool for trying to foresee an industries future when gambling in stocks and commodities so the traders and investors have some sort of a gauge when doing such gambling. You've got to be kidding me, check out this ridiculous article where case-shiller is predicting another 45% price drop and then look at the comments from some of the readers below disputing it with a little common sense. Don't always rely on data unless you question how it is collected and how it is being disseminated. There are many factors that factor into factoring.http://seekingalpha.com/article/175437-case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values Also note case-shiller is by far the most bearish real estate index out there which also just so happened to be created by (market gamblers), they also use data from as far back as 1890 to determine prices today, not taking into consideration inflation, Don't you think they should at least factor in the value of the value, replacement cost value, rental costs and or rental income for property owners, etc and if not why? Dan also said "But far to many who make money from selling something will not admit to a truth that would cost them their income, right mr. broker?" Well I'm sensing a bit of a wise alec snide attitude from you so forgive me for not taking your opinion too seriously. WRONG mr wiseguy. You see I am a professional, someone will always be buying or selling, I also deal in rentals and commercial real estate and business sales so I will always be busy and don't need to lie, misdirect or trick anyone into doing anything. I supply RECENT, LOCAL market data for COMPARABLE properties just like an appraiser would do, disclose any known material facts about local markets that may affect ownership, purchasing or selling and let the client come to their own conclusions of what they should do next. I have never held a gun to anyone's head or come on to anyone with any snake oil salesman pitches, there is no need for a hard sell in real estate. Transactions take a low average of 45 days to close, giving people plenty of opportunity to back out of a transaction that any hard sale sign here tactic would not survive so spare me of your disparaging remarks. You decided not to buy, DON'T... Once again, I question your motivations because most people shopping for a house that decide not to don't turn into market vigilante trying to sway others decisions to buy a home or not on a real estate site. I'm here to provide info and service for those seeking it, nothing more, nothing less. Why are you here again?

Answer by Carl

Sat, 05 Dec 2009 06:24:37 -0800

Dan, I almost forgot. The slow season up here in Chicago generally starts right at Thanksgiving and goes until March or April. Too cold to do anything!

Answer by Carl

Sat, 05 Dec 2009 06:19:11 -0800

Dan, I completely understand why you would be risk adverse in this economic times. The govt is promoting adverse risk by artificially ballooning the market. Let's face reality, if people need the 8k credit from Uncle Sam then they need to remain a renter for the time being or possibly the rest of their life. As my Dad use to tell me when I was a kid when I would ridicule the guy who went door to door to mow lawns, he would always remind me "That the world needs people to mow lawns". I've taken that in later life to say "The World needs renters". We have seen both extremes on this thread, Those that promote that this is a "Great time to be buying"(Realtors,Mortgage pros/ Investors) and those(Buyers/Renters) that feel that prices will fall back to 1970's prices (ok, so 1970's is a bit of a stretch) and are waiting for rock bottom prices. My feeling is that, it's both a good and bad time to buy. It depends on how you approach the market. Buying a home from a homeowner you will be paying the premium. I say premium because a home owner (with guidance from a local Realtor) will be pricing his home more than likely based on the past sold comps. Comps just tell me what others over paid by so this is why I say it's a bad time to buy. On the other hand, if you have the time and patients to play and wait out making a deal with a short sale or buying a foreclosure then you will be able to purchase a place that is way under "the comps" with full expectations that the comps may or may not drop down to what you paid for your place. I own several properties and all have been purchased as short sales and foreclosures. Some have needed extensive re modeling to some just a coat of paint. I'm a realist and know that the pendulum will be swinging back the other way down the road and prices just may stabilize and go back up (not any time soon). Everyone has to make their own gut check and make their own decision on what risk that they want to take in life from buying a home to buying gold and silver ( remember the Hunt brothers that lost their shirts to silver?). I see nothing wrong with sitting on the side lines in this market ,but I also would encourage anyone that is looking to buy to being as aggressive as possible and to stay away from homeowners that are sticking with "The comps" and go after those deals out there (Some home owners are desperate or smart enough to price their home way below the comps in order to sell). And good for you if you can pay all cash for a place. Why should you rent a new home from the bank. Good luck!

Answer by Dan Chase

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 23:49:04 -0800

Carl, from an investors standpoint who is going to rent out you are correct. You can make money that way in this market. From a home buyers perspective I still see the unemployment and the coming foreclosures. I will wait to buy as I have only one shot at buying using mostly or all cash. I have saved more cash than I could get a loan for. A second house will not be possible for me. It is like I have a single shot rifle and one bullet. If I fire at the wrong time or target I will run out of ammunition without being able to get another round. I do not want to waste that one shot on a rabbit if I can get a deer instead. I can't help it. I am risk averse. At different times in my life I lost to much to want to risk losing a lot again from a bad investment that looked good at the time. My money has never seen a stock or anything except a bank (fdic) or credit union (ncua). It has grown slowly, but has never gotten smaller. (ignore inflation) Yes, the federal reserves policies have really hurt me over the years. I wish I could figure out how to get a nice rural property with acreage like you did on your latest purchase. P.S. what is the slow time? February or so?

Answer by Carl

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:06:05 -0800

Here are some some cold hard facts to lighten the dialoge here: Here is the time line -Original purchace price of home in 2005- $216,000 -Home refinanced 2007- $228,000 -The foreclosure suit was filed on 7/08. -The Order of Possession was given on 3/09 -First offer of $150,000 made 4/09 -Bank accepts offer of $150,000 on 11/09 -I counter with new price of $130 on 11/09 -Bank accepts offer on 11/09 Closing set for 12/11/09...... I'm sure if I waited until the real slow season I perhaps could have picked up the place for another 10k less but my future renter wants to get in there by Feb 1'st. And for the number crunchers out there, the rent is $1300 so my ROI is well over 10%. Sorry, no links here, just hard true facts. It's a great time to buy, if you buy smart and have patients and the time.

Answer by Dan Chase

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:32:46 -0800

Jeff, if I said that the sky is falling and provided no information to prove it (such as a group of meteors on a collision path with the planet) people should always disregard it. That is why things like "There has never been a better time to buy", "Interest rates are low so that is a reason to buy now before they go up" and so on are ignored by most. The spin is in but the facts are thin. I back up the stats I post with links to show them. It takes time to do the research to find out if the real estate market is going down more or coming back soon. naturally, anything I post is nationwide. So a buyer should do the rest of the research to find out if it applies in their area. North Dakota should be fairly safe now as they have unemployment very low and few foreclosures. But florida and california look ripe for a big wave to drive prices down even more. I was even lucky enough to find a link to the san francisco federal reserve to find out some very valuable information. That was thanks to a realtors blog on here. Since not everyone can have the time or knowledge of how to look for this kind of information I try to offer a helping hand. Many who read what I say will still choose to buy now. That is ok. It would be better for me if everyone would buy today. If they burn through all of their finances before prices drop even more (later) I could get an even better deal. But I would rather people are told the truth. Whatever decision they make is theirs to make. Others are posting or blogging similar information. Look below. It is something I was previously unaware of. 3 Mortgages Get Worse For Each 1 that Improves http://www.trulia.com/blog/lukemullins/2009/12/3_mortgages_get_worse_for_each_1_that_improves I did say that interest rates would improve. It appears I was right on that prediction already. Falling Unemployment Rate Leads To Higher Mortgage Rates Today http://www.trulia.com/blog/bob_phillips/2009/12/falling_unemployment_rate_leads_to_higher_mortgage_rates_today

Answer by Dan Chase

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:17:20 -0800

Victor, I never said "everywhere". Prices will be dropping in many if not most markets over the next 3 years. In a few months (9-36) prices will drop. We do need to have the governmental interference stop. You are in NJ near or in a big city. I am so sorry to hear. It must be horrible living in a place like that. My point regarding prices is simple. We had a bubble, it is deflating, then prices will go back in line with historic norms. If we add inflation to normal sales number that worked as a house price indicator for most of our history. The showing if late and defaulting mortgage numbers and reasons gives insight into foreclosures to come. Todays late payment is tomorrows foreclosure. If we only had 1-2% foreclosures they would be irrelevant. But with up to 10 million, that is a big factor to consider. You obviously make some very bad and wrong assumptions. I did have some money in a mutual find for awhile in the 80's. I needed some money and cashed out before the 1987 crash had been reversed. Not since have I had one penny in the stock market. It is to risky. To place money in something that could double it or cut it in half or even worse is not something I can afford to do. I lost money once. I was not willing to trust again after losing in the stock market. I have only had my money in a bank or credit union. Look at some of my posts. Mostly I come down to 2 things. 1 the market is falling, be careful or you could lose money buying at this time. 2 you agreed to take that mortgage. Pay it off. You losing money is no reason to walk away. http://www.trulia.com/voices/Foreclosure/Is_walking_away_the_best_thing_when_the_so_called_-182420 http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Selling/If_Seller_is_upside_down_in_their_property_Should-181025-p_1-recent?answerId=576135#left_content Then look below. It is a blog I posted. questions I would ask when purchasing any property http://www.trulia.com/blog/dan_chase/2009/11/questions_i_would_ask_when_purchasing_any_property That is a list someone who does not know an area and is interested in minimizing problems would write and look at. No real estate agent would write it. No investor would either. It covers to much and a lot is personal in nature not value related. As I said before, I do look at buying a house with land as an investment. Everyone should. It is a huge expense. That means you educate yourself and find out as much as possible so you buy the right thing and at the right time to minimize your expenses. It is to expensive to buy in 2007 and lose $100+k until today wouldn't you agree? I see the foreclosures coming and see a lot more price drop to come. Financial reality appears to be coming as the bubble thinking and financing is going away. People will have to buy within their means and that says prices will drop. Had you watched some of the same news programs I did and looked online for foreclosure and mortgage meltdown you would also find case schiller and more like I have. Plus when you look at posts on here and zillow you will find similar links posted by others who have done their homework. Knowledge is a wonderful thing to share. But far to many who make money from selling something will not admit to a truth that would cost them their income, right mr. broker?

Answer by Victor Kaminski

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 12:38:43 -0800

@ Dan I like your crystal ball prediction that home prices will drop EVERYWHERE $30,000 in the next few months. Yes the year is coming to an end, and if that does not happen people short selling stocks in hopes the real estate market tanks to make money will be losing a lot of cash if that don't happen, so I do understand why as an investor you want to convince everyone not to buy a home. But like I said previously, I don't push homes on anyone, if you want to rent I can help you with that to (well maybe not YOU!) lol... Dan writes: "I am hoping interest rates go up, way up. (that brings prices down) They will increase some no matter what by summer. Cash does not mind higher interest rates you know." Well dan, it's good to see your hoping for higher interest rates, most people hope for the opposite and are not as fortunate as you to have enough money to pay all cash for a home so your rationale is in the minority. Dan writes: "I have seen property for sale in rural areas of tennessee, kentucky, west virginia, and virginia at around $100k back about 1997-2000. That was with 40 acres +/-. Even now when you look at such places on zillow it shows the price paid for sales around that time around those prices." Well I'm in New Jersey and not in some back woods rural area and living in the now, not dwelling on property prices back in 1997, why didn't you buy back then in those same rural areas? Your point, is a useless one. Quoting prices for some back woods deliverance area in the late 90's has nothing to do with this thread and buying at today's prices and with all the tax breaks and legally obtainable benefits and grants to home buyers with a large choice of low priced homes with extremely low interest rates in the suburbs near NYC. Geeze, I can still hear the banjos from your dream deal property example. lol.... What a joke.