Trulia Voices: I am looking to buy a home in Orange County, but am in no rush. Do you think the prices will go down in the?

Answer by Harrison K. Long

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 10:55:39 -0800

We see asking home prices being reduced at some areas of South OC. This is primarily where there are too many short sales and REOs on the market, which has negative pressure on a neighborhood and pricing. We always recommend to our clients who are serious about buying that they find the right property for them, and look at all comps on solds and economy information, and get loan letter authorization from lender, and then present an offer at the price the buyer wants, not necessarily related to amount of what the seller is asking. Harrison K. Long, Realtor agent and broker, Coldwell Banker Previews For the best search web site on home pricing, check out

Answer by J R

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 05:31:07 -0800

Eric: With respect to Real Estate "Pro's" (who are not even required to have a bachelor's of Arts from even a very weak school): ~~~~~~~~~~~~ Eric, don't get me started on people who do very well taking tests, and my taxes support for the rest of their lives.

Answer by Eric

Sat, 15 Nov 2008 21:18:44 -0800

And they should still know enough not to give out advice. Free adviceis worth what you paid for it.

Answer by Harrison K. Long

Sat, 15 Nov 2008 20:53:29 -0800

Jennifer ... I am disappointed that you received such a negative comment from Eric who is not a Realtor agent. I will stand up for the Realtor agents hre in California, many of whom have significant formal education, with college degrees and more. Good Realtors that I am associated with have a huge amount of business experience and wisdom from that. I am a Realtor agent, licensed broker, and also a lawyer licensed by the State Bar of California for more than 30 years. As Realtor agents and brokers, we are unable to predict with certainty when home prices will go up or down. True economic value of a home and real estate is determined by buyer demand. The value of a specific property is determined by what a certain buyer is willing to pay ... and what the certain seller is willing to accept for that property. Please call me if you have questions. Thank you. Harrison K. Long, Realtor and broker, Coldwell Banker Previews, Irvine, CA. 949-854-7747 HKLong@cox.net

Answer by Eric

Sat, 15 Nov 2008 18:17:15 -0800

With respect to Real Estate "Pro's" (who are not even required to have a bachelor's of Arts from even a very weak school): They still don't know and therefore they should not be giving out advice.

Answer by Harrison K. Long

Sat, 15 Nov 2008 14:16:26 -0800

Jennifer ... good questions about whether prices will go up or down. True economic value of a home and real estate is determined by buyer demand. The value of a specific property is determined by what a certain buyer is willing to pay ... and what the seller is willing to accept. Our Advice for Buyers? Find the right home for you and your family. Make sure you have down payment and can afford the monthly, property taxes and annual carry. Buy the home now at a good price and at the best possible time. Advice for Sellers? If you are moving or need to sell your home, hire a good Realtor agent, get it on the market at a fair price to sell ... and move it along. You buy elsewhere and take advantange of the soft market from a buyer perspective. Harrison K. Long, Explore Group Properties, Coldwell Banker Previews, Irvine, CA. For the Best Home and Real Estate Search Site check out

Answer by Tony Vega

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:45:40 -0700

I am not a real estate pro but I bought a house in June and am in escrow as the seller on the same property today. I should clear 40-60K post tax so I am doing ok. Thanks for asking.

Answer by Eric

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 11:04:57 -0700

So how we doing now "real estate pro's"?

Answer by Charita King - Short Sale Specialist

Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:27:38 -0700

Jennifer, Prices are still going down, but the question is, will the rate stay low. If you can find the house that you can afford right now, buy it. I was in Anaheim today to show properties and I found the properties in the area in the prices 300k-400k that are in good neighborhood and excellent condition. Good luck, Charita King 562-276-8681

Answer by Dorene Slavitz

Sat, 21 Jun 2008 20:58:14 -0700

You know, no one really knows where the market will be in several months or years. We do know that is is a buyers market right now, with low interest rates and sellers that are willing to negotiate! If you find a good house, at a great price now is the time to buy.

Answer by Porchlightscott

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 08:28:35 -0700

Hi Jennifer, Wow, some discussion you've solicited here.....I think a couple of these folks forgot your question! That is a great question and there is not really a right answer. Orange County Real Estate is very strange. It's not the price so much that is going to rise or fall but supply and demand. Many of the areas that are being hit the hardest had the highest demand several years ago and the prices where driven through the roof due to a very low barrier of entry...ie, no down payment, no income documentation...etc... What I tell all of my clients is that if you find your "Perfect Home" - i mean you absolutely fall in love with it, and the mortgage payment is affordable for you......There's your perfect price. Real Estate will always be a great investment if you're in it for the equity - This market will produce great returns in the next 7-10 years, you will not find a single real estate professional or economist that will argue that. Hope that helps :) - Good luck with your home search!

Answer by Michael Barron

Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:46:23 -0700

Hi there Jennifer, that is the million dollar question.There are so many factors that will come into the picture here such as Location that you are looking to buy. Price Ranges, How much of a mortgage you will need. What will be the Interest rates be for that loan Levels of Inventory Levels of Suppy vs demand Market values How will the US econony be? No body is really qualified to give you an accurate answer. People can look into a crystal ball. There may be a few out there who think that they have a crystal ball. General rule of economics would tell you to buy low and sell high. There are homes selling now contrary to what you may think if they are in alignment. If you give me a city or Zip code I can pull up all the market data for you to show you activity levels. Some ecomomicts predict a further drop and some predict 7% interst rate by end of 2008 so this could all nullify the best time to buy scenario. There are some amazing buys out there for savvy buyers. Ask yourself is it better to buy when less people are bying than then everyone is buying?? Why? If you would like some real time market information on OC or any particular city you are considering feel free to drop me a line and I can help you. KInd Regards Michael Barron Real Estate Consultant michael-barron@scbglobal.net

Answer by Sandra Carlisle

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:40:07 -0700

Markus - You don't have a way to contact you anonymously, but I spoke with my lender yesterday about the buying situation you commented on. He says you could get a loan using the low conforming limit of $417,000 plus your $50,000 down bringing your upper price point to $467,000 to stay within your budget. There are 17 detached homes in Lake Forerst with 4bd/2ba to choose from that fit this price point. This is assuming that you have good credit. If you would like to speak with Nate Lindsey (he is the same lender that saved the client I mentioned below the additional $500 per month), you can reach him at (714) 394-0506 or by email at nathaniel.j.lindsey@bankersfundingcompany.com. I've found email to be the easiest way to communicate with him. Bankers Funding is an affiliate of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage and First Team. (Sorry, we have to disclose affiliates...) Let him know I referred you. After you have spoken with him, feel free to contact me about those homes or to get together and talk about the current market in Lake Forest and the history of it.

Answer by Sandra Carlisle

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 10:13:37 -0700

Eric - Again, until computers grow legs, have ESP, knock on doors & talk to people, my information will never be a click away. A good Realtor knows which homes use to be on the market and are still available, are currently on the market and which ones will be coming on the market in their particular neighborhoods. Computers can only report what people enter into it. Markus - Let me try and end this confusion for you. Imagine real estate inventory as a triangle. Lower priced homes on the bottom, the highest priced homes on the top. This same inventory triangle is also the buyer pool. There are more lower priced homes than higher priced ones and more buyers able to purchase in the lower range than the upper range. Does it cost more or less money to advertise and market a home at the top or bottom of the triangle? It costs more money (costs are always a consideration in the pricing of any product) to find the fewer buyers for a higher priced property than it does for a lower one which is why commissions are set at a percentage of the sale price. Our costs in marketing (for buyers and sellers) go up and down depending on where the property falls in the triangle and how hard we have to work to find that one buyer who is willing to purchase that home. Our legal liability, dollar wise also moves up and down according to this triangle. And yes, I said marketing for buyers. You guys (and gals) don't just walk into our doors and choose us. We have to market, spend time doing Open Houses, get listings so you call on our signs etc... (All of which have a cost associated with it.) You won't call if you don't know us, just like any business. There are also less sales available the further up you move up on the triangle. Where an agent working in a mid to low area might sell 20 homes a year because the volume of sales is greater, an agent working the high end might only sell 2-4 per year since the volume is lower. It's easier to fish when the lake is stocked... Why not take an hourly rate? Most people won't pay as they go, this model has been tried before and it didn't stick. Most buyers choose to pay the commissions or "cost of a buyers agent" through escrow as a portion of the sales price so that this amount can be financed into their loan. That's why, when someone pays all cash for a home or has a substantial downpayment, they write a separate check for commissions. It lowers their tax rate a bit since it isn't tacked on to the sales price. Commissions are the costs paid for marketing and advertising. Period. Everytime you click on a property on any of these sites, including this one you are receiving the benefit of commissions that someone else paid. That is what keeps all of these sites up and running and full of data. Your job as a buyer is to find an agent that also adds the VALUE of helping you gain knowledge about the market, having the home inspected, deciphering the disclosures and helping you structure your offer so that you and your deposit are protected during the discovery period of escrow while still getting accepted. You agent should also be able to point you to great lenders, home inspectors etc... all of which save you more than the commission spent. I had a client that bought a home for $515,000 in Costa Mesa recently. He was going to use a friend of his who was a lender. I asked him to double check with my lender before he closed on his home. My lender was able to save him $500 per month on his payment ($6,000 per year). He is pretty happy with that service. I will use this buyer's situation to show you how the commission is broken down on the buy side of a typical purchase. The seller was offering 2.5% - $12,875 Take 6% right off the top of that which goes into the marketing and advertising pot for my company on every sale made, buy or sell side - $12,102.50 My split of that is 80% or $9,682. This is the amount I would receive from this sale. I am responsible for taxes, insurance and anything else associated with earning money in the U.S. Take that out to the tune of about $2,420.50 and that leaves me with about $7,261.50. Out of that remaining $7,000 or so dollars, comes my actual costs. Gas driving him to see the homes, time spent calling the neighborhood, previewing property that matches what he wanted, networking with other agents about what they have coming on the market, sending him properties on a regular basis, etc... I worked with this particular buyer for 3 years before he found what he wanted and was comfortable buying. He would have paid substantially more if I worked at an hourly rate. I hope that helps you to understand why real estate agents are paid the way they are.

Answer by Markus Arelius

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 17:28:29 -0700

Hey Tony, As much as I'd like to help you out with your mortgage, I'm already helping out another guy with his. If I move in the future, it will be to a nicer and bigger home to rent, or I may buy. Thanks.

Answer by Markus Arelius

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 17:20:56 -0700

Hi Sandra, Your statement about the out of pocket costs again is confusing to me. Costs don't justify the price for your service. Instead the VALUE provided by you should support what you charge. What you're saying is not unlike a milk farmer justifying why a gallon of milk should be $10.00 due to all of his operation costs, vet bills, cost of feed, volume produced, weather impact, transport costs, bottling, equipment expense, etc. (and I like milk!). I just don't consider realtor services to be a cost plus market. Markets with inefficient cost structures usually get rubbed out by more efficient practices or technologies. The fees I pay a realtor should be representative of the value that you provide me as a consumer, not as a function of the costs you incur providing it. For example, I'd be willing to pay a realtor for the time they invest in helping me find a house to live in, including all the paperwork, etc. (i.e. work that I don't want to do). Just like, for example, I may not want to build a deck in my backyard myself, so I'll pay a good carpenter to do it for me - and pay for materials and his labour per hour to complete the work. And so it should be with realtors. I'd pay a good realtor $40.00 an hour for their work to help me buy the home I want. But what I, and I presume, many consumers find troubling is how realtor fees instead end up getting to $10,000 and $15,000 based on the sales price of the house. Other than "that's the way it's always been", please explain how this arrangement makes any sense? I find it hard to believe that a realtor's efforts (and operation costs) are any different for selling a $650K home verses a $400K home. So why would the commission paid out to a realtor be $19,500 for one and $12,000 for the other, as an example? That doesn't make sense either. It would be more straightforward if realtors charged an hourly fee for their work with clients. For the work the realtors do, in my opinion, the commission arrangement is just inefficient for consumers of real estate.

Answer by Tony Vega

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 14:48:09 -0700

Hi Marcus I just bought a 4 bedroom home in Lake Forest that I would be happy to lease to you for $2,400 a month. If you would be interested in paying my mortgage for me, let me know. I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks

Answer by Kurt

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:06:12 -0700

Hello Eric.....and Jennifer (the inspiration for this thread) I make the MLS available FREE OF CHARGE to my clients and everyone else. Visit Official OC Home Search.com @ www.officialochomesearch.com Technology won't replace ALL real estate agents...but it will replace ALL real estate agents that DO NOT use technology. Clients enjoy looking for properties on line and I PREFER that they do!! When they find something they like I will be available to educate them and answer their questions regarding: 1) short sales vs REOs vs auction vs FSBO vs probate vs living trusts 2) writing up an offer and basing that offer on intensive homework..tax roll searches..comps...etc. 3) what it means to buy a property "as-is" and all of it's implications 4) visiting properties in person 5) legal disclosures and paperwork 6) unpermitted add-ons and code violations 7) Mello Roos assessments and HOA fees 8) transfer of tax bases 9) 1031 property exchanges 10) loan point buydowns 11) soil and engineering reports 12) property liens and title reports 13) government siezures and imminent domain 14) reverse mortgages and senior living 15) Jessica's Law 16) price-per-square foot data 17) property boundaries and easements 18) school district information 19) crime statisctics 20) SHALL I GO ON?????????????? It's quite clear that ERIC in Chicago thinks that most people are like him and don't work and have all day to post threads......and surf the net and become armchair experts like ERIC. The reality TECHNOLOGY + REALTOR = SUCCESS!! Welcome the reality ERIC> Kurt @ Century 21 Orange County kurt.century21@yahoo.com

Answer by J R

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:01:42 -0700

As a consumer, I'm not at all interested in IT administration or upkeep charges or what dues Realtors pay and what that money is purportedly used for. I'm interested in value. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Looks to me like you're interested in "free".

Answer by Eric

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 15:02:51 -0700

Not for ever. Your information will eventually be available with a few mouse clicks. Bet on it.

Answer by Sandra Carlisle

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:48:10 -0700

Than you are missing out on a lot of available homes.

Answer by Eric

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:38:59 -0700

I don't knock on doors. I click. It's really hard work, but I am up to it.

Answer by Sandra Carlisle

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:16:46 -0700

Markus - Just because you are uninterested in where the fees go doesn't mean that the costs don't exist and doesn't change the fact that it comes out of my pocket year after year. It doesn't change the fact that I have to go out and find, through marketing $$$ and elbow grease, these listings that you think you should have for free (which you do have access to for free because we Realtors agreed to put it out there to benefit our clients.) No one is stopping you from doorknocking the neighborhood you want to buy in for your own inventory... It's what we do everyday, yet you want access to it, unfettered, off of our hardwork, time & expense. A monopoly? We have at least three different boards that serve Orange County alone . Maybe you could start your own, I'm sure a fourth could find a home here. Then when you've put in 60+ hours a week compiling the information and finding the listings, paying a full time staff at your own expense, you can give it away for free because, after all, your own gas is free, food is free and the mortgage fairy will take care of your house payments for you when you realize that it actually takes work & money to keep this data manageable and current. Sellers choose to use Realtors because of the incredible marketing tool we created. (The MLS) You don't have to become a member of the board when you get your real estate license. Many agents choose not to because they don't want to pay the fees associated with it. Who is N.A.R. blocking from listings & websites? Unaltered Information? What exactly is altered? The information in the MLS comes from tax records and sellers...it's not a work of fiction.

Answer by Kurt

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 12:53:07 -0700

John wrote: "I'd be happy to talk in specifics. I think you are a slimly and unethical salesperson, and it would be unwise to call your number and ask for real estate advice. Welcome to the internet" Need John say anymore about himself! Notice his lack of data! If you would like FREE MLS access go to: Official OC Home Search.com www.officialochomesearch.com

Answer by Markus Arelius

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 11:02:29 -0700

Kurt, You wrote: "What I would like to hear from buyer's is WHAT THEIR GOALS ARE and come up with specific steps to achieve their goals in the context of any current market. " I make $75,000 per year. I have 2 kids. I want to buy a single family home in Lake Forest with 4 beds and 2.5 baths. Oh, and my household budget allows me to pay $2,400 for a mortgage. And I'm deathly afraid of I/O and ARM mortgage instruments because I know damn well interest rates will be increasing. I have $50K in the bank for a down payment. There. Waiting patiently to be dazzled.

Answer by Markus Arelius

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 10:56:51 -0700

Sandra, You wrote: " Markus - The MLS should be free to consumers? Do you know how the MLS came into existence??? Realtors collectively pay dues every year to have a place (the MLS) to market our client's homes to other real estate agents. It is a marketing tool, which we pay for out of our own pocket, not a free service that everyone is entitled to. If you don't like it, don't use it. It's expensive to maintain a database of that size. We have to pay IT, administration, etc... to keep it up and running smoothly. As a courtesy, we sell that collective data to outside sources so that consumers can have access to the data (for free!). Out of my pocket, to you, for FREE! Another way to expose our clients home to the market, doing the best job we can for the client by increasing the amount of buyers who can find it." Sandra, I know how the MLS came into existence. It is a monopolistic database of listings that should be completely, and not partially, available to all consumers free of charge. And the NAR should not block websites or listings as has been standard practice for years. As a consumer, I'm not at all interested in IT administration or upkeep charges or what dues Realtors pay and what that money is purportedly used for. I'm interested in value. The fact is that the real estate market has been and remains inefficient because consumers like me don't have full access to unaltered information. It's a racket that needs to be smashed, and I'm not worried because it will be sooner or later. This housing crash and the preceding irrational exhuberance is already as educational a case study as consumers will ever find that they've been lied to about real estate values not going down, and "get in now while you still can" and "now is a great time to buy a home". That's my opinion. It's also happens to be shared by others: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121190749214623093.html?mod=residential_real_estate Boy, I'm glad we've answered Jennifer's original question above.

Answer by Anurag

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 21:16:16 -0700

Jennifer, Though I am just a buyer, but the amount of time I have spent looking at properties for last few months and reading articles/opinions/facts i the internet, I am definite that the real estate market in OC has still to fall..I believe all the realtors will quote the increase in sales in april in OC, but don't be fooled by that. That is just the false bottom and things will get much worse during the later part of this year. I have been looking at houses in OC and since January I have seen a vast difference in the price..take extra care while taking your decision..best of luck

Answer by John

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 17:56:31 -0700

"What I am getting from this thread is: The torches are out and burning for Realtors by a small mob of dirt throwers who speak in generalities and NO specifics. " I'd be happy to talk in specifics. Kurt, I think you are a slimly and unethical salesperson, and it would be unwise to call your number and ask for real estate advice. Welcome to the internet.

Answer by Sandra Carlisle

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 17:09:37 -0700

I saw 17 comments, started reading the first one and forgot what the question was by the time I got to the top. Holy Moly! If I believed everything I read, then I'd be out of a job, burning at the stake and single handedly bringing down the entire written form of land ownership because I chose to help people buy and sell homes. The power we Realtors wield. No one ever told me I controlled price!!!! Where's my cape... ? < $ > ;) (Not sure what Kurt did to deserve that lashing, but this thread certainly isn't boring!) Jennifer, Prices will almost certainly continue to go lower over the next few years in some areas here in Orange County. While there are signs of stabilization in some areas, even slight price increases, further inland isn't one of them. Make sure you get the market facts for the area and neighborhood you want to buy in. Look at the history, level of inventory, days on market, etc... and buy when you are comfortable. Physically go look at every home in the price range you are considering. If you do, when you see that great deal, there will be no doubt. Every home sale happens either at the top, the bottom or somewhere in between. The most important aspects of buying are location, comfort , your needs & interest rates (loan programs) if you are getting a loan. Markus - The MLS should be free to consumers? Do you know how the MLS came into existence??? Realtors collectively pay dues every year to have a place (the MLS) to market our client's homes to other real estate agents. It is a marketing tool, which we pay for out of our own pocket, not a free service that everyone is entitled to. If you don't like it, don't use it. It's expensive to maintain a database of that size. We have to pay IT, administration, etc... to keep it up and running smoothly. As a courtesy, we sell that collective data to outside sources so that consumers can have access to the data (for free!). Out of my pocket, to you, for FREE! Another way to expose our clients home to the market, doing the best job we can for the client by increasing the amount of buyers who can find it. N.A.R. and C.A.R. as an organization pays thousands of dollars every year to help preserve your ownership rights and to defeat additional taxes that will increase the cost of owning a home. See the Web Reference below. About the internet - Until a buyers computer grows legs and takes the time to go look at all the inventory, it will only ever be a glorified photo album. The human aspect of the transaction, from talking to a buyer about their concerns to sharing market knowledge from having seen the inventory (such as recent sold listings and their actual condition, etc...) can never be replaced by the internet. I've bought 5 homes out of state and out of the country and used an agent everytime because I know the value the right agent can bring to the transaction. I can buy shoes online, but still prefer to go try them on and have the saleperson bring them out along with others that they think I might like... It's service and product knowledge. www.OCBeachBlog.com

Answer by Kurt

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 14:35:12 -0700

Hello All! Isn't this great fun! By saying disparaging things about ALL Realtors.......then in the next breath say....."I'm sure there are some good ones" ....is like cutting the baby in half! What I would like to hear from buyer's is WHAT THEIR GOALS ARE and come up with specific steps to achieve their goals in the context of any current market. QUESTION: Are there buyer's out there that want or need to buy in this market? ANSWER: ABSOLUTLEY! QUESTION: Do those buyers require up to the minute data to make informed decisions? ANSWER: ABSOLUTLEY! QUESTION: Can a Realtor fill that role for today's consumer? ANSWER: ABSOLUTLEY! What I am getting from this thread is: The torches are out and burning for Realtors by a small mob of dirt throwers who speak in generalities and NO specifics. This was the same mentality of stock DAY TRADERS during the tech bubble.........People running around saying "we don't need stockbrokers for advice anymore" while their 401ks flamed out like the Hindenburg! The Sage from Omaha...Warren Buffet says famously..."when everyone is greedy ..get nervous!......when everyone is nervous......get a little greedy! The agenda to tear down Realtors is counter-productive.......... Isn't there a more cooperative back-and-forth that can take place. How about: Ask a specific question to Realtors and guage individual resposes?? Let's hear from you! Kurt @ Century 21 in Orange County California 714-365-6135 kurt.century21@yahoo.com FREE ONLINE PROPERTY SEARCHES ~~ SEE WHAT REALTORS SEE! Official OC Home Search.com www.officialochomesearch.com

Answer by Markus Arelius

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 13:47:45 -0700

Jennifer, I'd be patient. Lending standards have been tightening. Mortgage rates are going to be going up in the future, and there will be more foreclosures hitting the market in OC in 2008 and 2009 due to the adjusting rates of unconventional loan products that were used between 2004-2007 to fuel this crazy home market in the first place. The best time to buy a home here is probably when your income will enable you to purchase the home comfortably and securely without cotton candy loan products. When we continue to observe 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath single family homes built in 1980 still priced at $650K on the advice of local OC Realtors, while median wages in the county are $75K per anum - well, you know something is still very, very wrong here. I recommend focusing on affordability first, i.e. can you consistently afford a fixed rate mortgage for the home you wish to purchase? How does this mortgage payment fit with your current monthly expenditures, debts, savings plan, etc.? Talk to a lender you trust and consult with your financial planner as well. Consider your risks. If we subtract just some of the insane and irresponsible lending products and practices, and introduce to consumers full MLS listings info, no listing blocks, home sales history, and days-on-market information for free, what would happen?. Might the real estate market start to normalize, become more efficient and perhaps more affordable? With respect to the housing market crash in OC, one way to end all the pain right now would be for all homes to be priced-to-market. Until that "priced-to-market" happens, we'll continue to see the equivalent of Granny Smith apples being sold at $50 a piece and we'll continue to see homesellers, realtors and banks squabbling as to whether the band-aid will hurt when you tear it off. I think Eric and John are really on to something in their posts below. There might be some good realtors out there that you can rely on to be straight with you and who might say "you know what, now may not be the best time to buy a home". I've never heard a realtor say this. EVER! My opinion is that realtors across the nation have lost their "trusted advisor" status in the industry for good this time.

Answer by John

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:33:17 -0700

Clearly, Eric is the most knowledgeable/truthful person in this thread. Everything he said, I could not agree with more. Especially that new technology (this site for example) is rendering real estate agents less and less relevant every day. Take a look at what's happening right now in this discussion tread. A bunch of "Real Estate Pros" with vested interest, jump all over a guy who tells it like it is. Someone who says "Finding the bottom is impossible," which is the most truthful answer you'll find. I see a lot of desperation here, and it's not coming from Eric. *Of course, I am speaking generally about real estate agents. Not all real estate agents are unethical liars, just as not all lawyers are. But if my money is involved, I'll stay clear of advice from both. I am not a pro, but I will make a bold and outlandish statement and say: I think the real estate market still has some falling to do.

Answer by J R

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 18:33:36 -0700

Great ERic, I'm sure you'll be joining the Peace Corps along with all us agents! :)

Answer by Eric

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 16:14:58 -0700

Nope. I do want to see agents and other middlemen re-employed in real work that actually benefits someone. And I have cheerfully bought and sold 8 homes working with numerous fine real estate agents. They are just no longer necessary ... their work has been destroyed by a new technology.

Answer by J R

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 12:38:39 -0700

Kurt at Century probably told potential buyers 4 years ago what a great move they were making. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Kurt and any other realtor could probably have told buyers 4 years ago that prices were bound to come down and they wouldn't have listened. 4 years ago buyers were falling all over themselves to buy, and there was no stopping them. Buyers who were not really qualified to buy anything, and buyers who had money but put down 5 % thinking they'd keep their high paying jobs and are now trying to sell for way more than anyone is willing to pay. Obviously we have another anonymous poster with an agenda who would really like houses to be free and every real estate agent to be unemployed. Of course he would like to keep his own job, which he probably gets paid regularly for, and get one of those free houses for himself so he can flip it a couple of years hence.

Answer by Eric

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 11:32:00 -0700

Here comes the disinformation (sometimes known as lying). I will be keeping an eye on my wallet, Jennifer... 6 percent regardless of the home price...sheesh, and the internet is rendering them less useful every day.

Answer by Bill M Godwin

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 11:19:47 -0700

Jennifer, I believe most of the Real Estate Pros that have answered you question, have professed to not being able to predict the future and as Eric pointed out there are many issues in the world today that can have an effect on the value of your home. Eric is one of those who lose sight of the fact that a home is purchased in order to provide shelter for you family - hopefully in a nice neighborhood with good schools and roads that make getting to and from work easy. If it provides the room and comforts you find necessary for you lifestyle then it has done its job. A home is not a stock certificate designed to make you money as an investment tool. The recent bull market in home prices has caused many people to draw a false analogy between the stock market and the housing market. No one ever said it was your inalienable right to make money on your home. If you need to move because of a job change, a change in marital status, new children in the family, children going off to college or an aging parent needing to move in - and this is why 80% of real estate transactions get made - then find a Real Estate professional who will assist you in analyzing the merits of what is on the market now and making the best selection. We can only show you the relative merits of all the homes on the market now - we can't measure them against some future conditions that we can't predict. Bill M Godwin First Team Real Estate 949-606-5669 Bill@BillMGodwin.com

Answer by Kurt

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 10:55:19 -0700

Hi Jennifer........ It seems that Eric in Chicago is more inclined to filibuster ....make political rants.......and stereotype people than to discuss real estate.........he seems intent on slander. His comment on loans is a clear example of Eric's disinformation campaign......LOANS are between BUYER and LENDER.........Realtors don't make loans.....That is Real Estate 101!!! I feel my role as a professional is to provide you with all the current data so you can make a an informed decision based on facts...... Like my buyer clients... I feel Eric could benefit from that kind of advice. Jennifer........If you would like your questions answered...shoot me a quick Email to: kurt.century21@yahoo.com Official OC Home Search.com is a great way to check what is on the market in Orange County...... www.officialochomesearch.com FREE TO USE Warm regards, Kurt Steinhebel ** Century 21 Orange County ** 714-718-7156 kurt.century21@yahoo.com

Answer by Eric

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 10:41:51 -0700

HI Jennifer, Please remember in all of this that the "Real Estate Professionals" who are answering your question have an interest themselves in seeing the market conditions turn around. Heck, I've even seen some of these people tell real lies to real people with real consequences. For example: Kurt at Century probably told potential buyers 4 years ago what a great move they were making. Some of those people are now virtually homeless, having purchased Adjustable Rate Mortgages at 4 percent that are resetting now at higher rates. Or maybe they were helped into a nice balloon mortgage; maybe trees do in fact grow all the way to the sky. Many of the poor folks whose homes we are about to steal got their advice from these same pro's. Don't listen to them. They know nothing, and even if they do, they lie. Trust yourself. Finding the bottom is impossible, for you or for a person with her PhD from MIT in finance. With energy costs soaring, interest rates rising, US competitiveness in the world damaged, a war in Iraq draining our public funds, and many other factors beyond the consideration of simple minded pro's, there is just no way to know. Like taking a risk? Can you afford a risk? That's what this real estate market is...even in vaunted Orange County. Oh, did I mention you can't trust Realtors? Eric Gates Just a guy who used to publish college textbooks on real estate and finance for McGraw-Hill

Answer by Linsey Planeta

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 10:13:03 -0700

Hi Jennifer, Predicting the bottom is tough. I think it's important to evaluate a couple things to decide when it might be right to pull the trigger. Your Circumstances 1 - Will this be a long term property? If your intention is only to be there 2 or 3 years, I would remain cautious. 2 - Qualifying - Have you talked to a lender? Is it a stretch? Or can you comfortably qualify? 3 - What will be the tax implications of owning? Do they make the value in purchasing now a wise decision? 4 - What is the underlying motivation for you to buy a home? What will it do for you and your family? Remember, this is not exclusively an investment if you intend for it to be your primary residence. The Market Conditions 1 - Some of the best historical investments in property have been made in down markets. My dad always told me "Buy on Bad News....Sell on Good." As soon as everybody jumps in, he's out. Although he was a stockbroker it has valuable implications in real estate as well. A little of that advice, could be very valuable long term for you. You have to have the strength to ignore media, friends, and colleagues and make a sound decision based on calulated downside risk and knowlege of upside potential. 2 - Seasonal changes - Right now buying activity is higher than it's been in months. But April, May, June and July are buying times. Whether this is a lasting change in the market remains to be seen. But watch October, November, and December - great buying times with generally limited buyer pool and with really motivated sellers. 3 - The market has already had a substantial decline. The bulk of the decline may be behind us. But if you were to buy, would you be willing to see another 5% decline, and ride that out? Just a few ideas....hope it helps. Remember, we only know we've hit the bottom when it's going back up.

Answer by Judy Field

Sat, 31 May 2008 23:00:31 -0700

Jennifer, A lot of would-be buyers are waiting until they know with absolute certainty that the market has bottomed out. They are literally trying to time their purchase with the precision of a day-trader in the stock market. Their strategy seems so simple and logical - wait unitl the bottom and buy, right? Here is the problem with that: 10,000 other buyers have the same strategy! Even the self-annointed "experts" - the same ones who for so many years were incorrect in their forecasts of real estate prices - will not know where the bottom of the market is until they see it in their rearview mirrors. When the word gets out that the market has bottomed, all those buyers who have been waiting and watching will be going after the same properties - the ones that are the best values. In many cases, they will be bidding against other buyers for the same properties. Multiple offers on a home give the seller more leverage than the buyers, which often results in a higher sale price. Sometimes it is smart to be a contrarian, which is why so many buyers are deciding to buy now instead of waiting for the "experts" to ring the buy bell. Consider these facts: 1. In April, twenty Orange County zip codes saw an increase in sales as compared to 2007. 2. The average time a home remains on the market in Orange County has dropped 30% from last year. 3. Interest rates are very low. With inflation rising, the Feds may raise rates next year. 4. In my years as a Realtor, I have never heard anyone express regret about a house they bought in the past. The only regrets I hear are about the house they did NOT buy five, ten or fifteen years ago. 5. This is a BUYER''S market. Why would you want to wait for the market to improve before you buy? When the market improves, it will not be as favorable for buyers! I recommend you find a Realtor in your area to help you find the right home and also represent you in the purchase of that home. Feel free to contact me if you need help in finding a Realtor in your area. Good luck!

Answer by Michelle Anthony

Sat, 31 May 2008 19:44:04 -0700

All you have to deal with is today's facts, and yesterday's history. I am encouraged by the amount of market activity now--our office had the highest volume month in about 3 years. The difference in today's market is that almost every sale was a vacant house, which means that most of those sales did not cause the usual chain effect: first time buyer sends condo owner into house, sending that seller into a more expensive house, and so on. It will take some time to reach a saturation level, which then will tighten the market and most likely increase prices. The inerest rates are good, and the terms are great--with FHA's temporary loan limit over $700,000, and 3% downpayment commonly "donated," QUALIFIED buyers can get into a property with little or no out of pocket money. My advice is to keep your eye on properties for sale, and if a property which suits you comes on the market and it's in your price range, don't hesitate. If the property should decrease, you will be on board with an affordable home when the prices go up. And, they will. Feel free to browse the MLS from my website, www.Michelle4RE.com.

Answer by Michael Barron

Sat, 31 May 2008 13:43:44 -0700

Hi there Jennifer, It really depends on the type of home and the areas. Some cities are holdinf steady, some are dropping slighty and some are droppig more. But if the interest rates go up 1/4 or 1/2 point that will nullify a drop in price from now till then. There are a lot of savvy buyers out there now who want to get a great screaming deal and take advantage of today's low interest rates. Its a double win situation. If you would like a complete maket analysis on any particular city please let me know. I work in the Tustin. N Tustin. Irvine, Orange areas. Regards Michael Barron Realtor First Team Real Estate (714) 552-6817

Answer by Debt Free Dave

Sat, 31 May 2008 13:37:03 -0700

I think prices may come down a little, but I think interest rates are going to go up in the near future. The fed came out two weeks ago and said that they are not going to be offering anymore rate cuts.

Answer by Kurt

Sat, 31 May 2008 13:29:27 -0700

Hi Jennifer! The bottom of a downturn in real estate is a length of time and not just a point in time... We are in that period of time right now .......Let me put it another way. If you bought stock in Microsoft for $10 a share when you could get it for that......you would be considered a genius.....you would have made a great investment.......and gotten a good return NOBODY would have said to you: " WHY DIDN'T YOU WAIT AND BUY THAT STOCK WHEN IT WAS $8 a share????" Today's real estate in OC is like Microsoft stock at $10 a share...a sound investment. Consider the following when deciding to act now vs waiting: 1) We can write offers NOW on properties TODAY for the amount WE want to pay....NOT based on the asking price 2) By acting NOW.....instead of waiting 2 years.....you get to take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction NOW.......this is POWERFUL financial incentive to buy NOW. 3) Maximize your time and buying power by avoiding SHORT SALE properties and focusing on REO properties 4) Alot of investors are jumping into the market!...WHAT DO THEY KNOW?? THAT YOU DON'T?? 5) Traditional sellers are NOT receiving lots of offers...so by WRITING an offer you can get the deal you want by jarring sellers back to reality! 6) The cap on a conventional loan has been raised to $729,000 and interest rates are finally in line with these new loan programs.......but they expire in December!! 7) The amount of inventory available is incredible RIGHT NOW.....this means you have unlimited choices....once the market turns the "aisles will be full of shoppers" ...right NOW you have the sale and the store all to yourself If you would like to learn about more reasons to buy... shoot me a quick Email. I invite you to go online and search for properties yourself @ Official OC HOME SEARCH.com www.officialochomesearch.com ~~~FREE TO USE BUYERS GET MY SERVICES AT NO CHARGE!!! Kurt @ Century 21 Orange County 714-365-6135 kurt.century21@yahoo.com

Answer by Bill M Godwin

Sat, 31 May 2008 13:22:37 -0700

Hi Jennifer, I wish I could give you a definitive answer to your question. But since I can't predict the future, I can only provide you with some market indicaters that I watch. In each of the markets that I monitor the number of active listings has not increased dramatically as is characteristic for this time of year. At the same time the number of Bank owned properties listed has been decreasing. Of the bank owned listings which have sold in the last 30 days nearly 25% ten days or less and many for more than the asking price. That indicates a great demand for the affordable homes. When you see more demand and less supply it general leads to strengthening prices. While prices have gone up yet, it feels as if an equallibrium maybe approaching. The best time to buy will be when you see a house that meets your needs that can be bought for a price that is within your budget. Work with an experienced full time agent and you can negotiate your way into a great deal now. Bill M Godwin First Team Real Estate 949-606-5669 Bill@BillMGodwin.com