Dave is correct there are two parts of Queen Creek. The upper creek, and the lower creek.
When will the Market recover? That is such a tough question. What I do know is that the upper creek will eventually recover, and begin appreciating in value. 2 to 4 years
The Neighborhoods in the lower creek will take twice as long. It would not be fair to say "If" the lower creek recovers. Eventually everything " should " recover.
There are many state economic factors that play into the recovery.
I am concerned that there are neighborhoods in the lower creek which may not recover from their current "Stigma" for several years.
This past week I performed extensive comps on a neighborhood in the lower creek. Of This one neighborhood. 53% of the active listings were REO`s or Short Sales.
There are two parts of Queen Creek. One part near Gilbert along or close to Power Road. Then there is the other area near Johnson Ranch and Florence.
The Gilbert part will do fine over time. It has seen a larger depreciation than Gilbert has, but not as dramatic as the Johnson Ranch area. Because of its location and good prices, it should follow whatever happens in Gilbert. When showing homes in Gilbert, I typically show in Cortina, Sossoman Estates and Remington Heights as a great option.
The Johnson Ranch area will have problems regarding price for a long time. There are entire communities out there where every single buyer paid more for their home than it is worth today. I was showing homes yesterday to a guy who found one over 2200 square feet with an asking price of $109,900!!!! That same home could have sold at one time for close to or over $300,000!!!! Recovery is a long time off for this part of Queen Creek...
In summary, the area close to Gilbert will see mild declines from this point forward. Homes that are priced correctly will sell. I believe the minor declines and stabilization will happen over the next 2 years, with it taking an additional 3 years to see values near where they are today and a longer time horizon, maybe 10 years to see them where they were. The other part of Johnson Ranchmay never see prices inflated to where they were again. That is tough to say, but buyers will be more cautious, lenders will be more conservative, and even us real estate agents will be more skeptical....
With all of that said, I would still buy the right home at the right price every day of the week. That home for $109,900 for example is a tough one not to buy!!!!