Market Conditions in 11205>Question Details

Brooklyn Buy…, Home Buyer in Fort Green, Bklyn

Zack, you stated before that the world is betting on prices going down 20% within the next 5 years in brooklyn

Asked by Brooklyn Buyer/seller, Fort Green, Bklyn Sat Apr 5, 2008

Zack, you stated that the world is betting on NY City prices going down 20% in the next 5 years. That was in January. Do you feel that prices have already dropped half of that 20% since then?

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Marian, I stated it here:

http://www.trulia.com/voices/Market_Conditions/The_estate_of…

It is a link to the futures prices at the time of posting on the case schiller index for the NY metro area. Given the opinion of the financial markets or people in the profession, that choices is easy.

Brooklyn Buyer, half, not close, that said the index is built a large area and the I believe it is a bit pessimistic personally, but a lot smarter people than me price those futures and trade them accordingly. If you're looking in areas that are high income with good schools, you'll probably be insulated more than the areas current under development and undergoing revitalization. When the money starts to fade, which it is with the 80,000 jobs lost last month, the revitalization of bad areas will basically just become nicer buildings in bad areas. I do believe the entire area is going to take a sizeable hit though, including manhattan. Foreign money has helped prop up manhattan but they can't buy co-ops and others have posted here talking about how the lag in data is making manhattan look a lot rosier than it is. The other burroughs and surrounding counties will feel it more since its not nearly as exciting for a foreign buyer to a house in chappaqua unles she's hoping to catch a view of Bill Clinton in a tryst with an intern, and even then, he should probably be looking in Harlem.

Anyway, I'm just trying to point out the data to people who seem to believe investing in real estate and buying houses is always a good idea. This isn't true.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 5, 2008
Zack,
Point very well taken and very well presented!. All realty estate has always been "not the best investment". As you point out, the data averages out the % decease. The data however does not identify by specific area which will be more or less. New York is a prime example of the entire country. Some areas are doing fine and right down the street you see major problems. From example I just received an article stating that the Treasure Coast of FL may be leveling off...wouldn't this be nice!
Thanks again
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 5, 2008
Brooklyn Buyer,
20% w/i next 5 years!!! When did Zack say this?? I think most people in our profession would strongly disagree with this. A 20% drop over a 5 year period would be devastating for NY and surrounding areas. 7-8% maybe and a few of these %'s have already been given up.
Good Luck
The Schaffer Realty Group
Terry@marianschaffer.com
http://www.marianschaffferrealty.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 5, 2008
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