This is particularly true with Real Estate. The price that is paid for residential Real Estate is very dependent upon incomes of people who live in the area, inflation and interest rates.
. In turn incomes are dependent upon the performance of local industries. We need to be able to predict the performance of local industries to even make a very rough estimate of what future incomes might be.
Also, Real Estate prices are dependent upon inflation.
We saw that in the 1970s. In the 1970s we first had a bad recession, followed by an enormous amount of money that was pumped into the economy to counter the recession. The result was runaway inflation and enormous increases in real estate prices in the late 1970s as a result of all of the money that was pumped into the economy.
That was followed by extremely high interest rates in the 1980s and a resulting drop in Real Estate prices that continued through the first half of the 1980s..
Currently our Federal Government is putting an enormous amount of money into the economy with the stimulus programs. That will increase inflationary pressures, and will create upward pressure on Real Estate Prices..
However with increased inflation we will also see increasing interest rates. Increasing interest rates will create an enormous amount of downward pressure on Real Estate Prices.
Curretly, in Santa Clara County the trend in Real Estate Prices has been slightly upward for the past two yous.
With inflation that trend will continue.
However we will also see increasing interest rates in the future. Increasing interest rates will place an enormous amount of downward pressure on Real Estate prices.
Those factors, inflation and increasing interest rates are two very large factors, in addition to incomes that will have a great deal in influence on Real Estate prices that we will see in the future..
I expect that what we will see with respect to Real Estate Prices in the future will be very similar to the trends that we saw in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Real Estate Broker/REALTOR
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Our San Diego Market has stabilized in the last year and reached equlubrium, which I believe result in slight price increases, but it will take a while. This recession was really long and deep and we can't expect to have a huge and fast rise this time. It will be a slow one. I think at least 10 years for the prices to go back to what they used to be. But that's just my wild guess, based on the experience and my current observations of the market.
The question isnâ€™t if, it really is more of a question of when. It reminds me of the Bill Cosby bit.....with Noah when God asks Noah the question, "How long can you tread water?"
Real estate has seen bubbles and busts and over time seems to always increase in value because other than Hawaii, they aren't making any more of it.
Best of luck to you and hang in there. California is a wonderful place to be. We are opening a couple offices there at the end of 2012.
Chris Schilling, ABR, GRI, CRS, GREEN
Real Estate Broker
I hope not. Surprising answer? You see those near highs before the "crash" was an inflated bubble. That was a part of the crash. A steady appreciating market is better for all around, buyers, sellers, lenders, builders, etc.
*cost of building materials
*prices of rentals going up
*mortgage interest deductibility
*polulation growth through births, immigration
*new household formation
If you truly need a place to live and can afford a 20% downpayment - you can lock into a very attractive rate on a 30yr mortgage. Do the math on a spreadsheet to see what it would cost you to rent a comparable piece of property. If you do not have to move for a while - you may do well regardless of whether the prices will go down a bit more before they level off and start rebounding.
This is especially true in the South Bay / Silicon Valley. People from all over the world want to come here for the dynamic technological innovation (Apple, LinkedIn, Facebook, Google, Cisco, Intel, NVIDIA, cloud computing, etc.), the cultural diversity, the great weather (60 degree and sunny tomorrow even though it's the middle of winter), top-notch universities (Stanford, Cal Berkeley), etc.
The rise isn't a straight line but has peaks and valleys. However, if you look at the chart you'll see successively higher peaks and higher valleys. In other words, the peak in 2007 was higher than the peak in 1988 and the valley in 2009 was higher than the valley in 1995.
Hang in there. Our homes will not only recover, but most likely on the next cycle or the cycle after that will reach a new higher peak.
In time yes.
The bust started about 2008. We have seen an uptick in certain Areas.
The primary reason for Highs was "easy loans", that era is gone.
Wages are gradually climbing for a few, but for most they are at a stand still, inflation is in check.
After a bust as serious as the last one, a Decade to 15 years.
Traditionally we see these trends every 10 to 15 years or so, this does not mean that we have a crystal ball, we just go by the past experiences, in some of our areas here in the North Bay we are seeing prices that are now more stable. Our investors are out, our first time buyers are buying, that tell us we are on our way up, interest rates at are the lowest, so in answer to your question I see light at the end of the tunnel, slowly but we are getting there.
The first situation resulted in a real estate bubble and the actions by the Fed and Gov't today will most likely produce the same, in due time.
In simplicity, the market runs in cycles. Denver's low end market has hit bottom and climbing. It looks like the market is similar in your area. After going through this madness in the 80's and thinking the world was about to end, I have a different perspective about this mess. This could be a little different; but at the end of the eighties when the peices fell back into place the turn around was swift and steady for several years with prices skyrocketing. This time things could stabilize and improve quickly as well when the right peices fall into place.
We shall see what we shall see.
Robert McGuire ASR
Your Castle Real Estate
1776 S. Jackson St. #412
Denver CO 80210
Direct â€“ 303-669-1246
For the broader CA economy, the data and consensus forecasts indicate 2012 will be a year of stabilizing for housing with significant downside risks associated with the state's debt and dysfunctional governance, sub-par U.S. economic growth, the ongoing debt crises throughout the European Union, and problems with Syria and Iran that drive energy prices higher, further suppressing economic growth. The risk of another recession, which could radically alter the current outlook, still looms.
Uncertainty and weak job growth are currently the biggest impediments to the broader economy and the housing market. Assuming no new recession and that genuinely positive and substantial policy changes result from the 2012 elections, more stable economic growth, including modest home price appreciation, could return by 2014. The wild-card in the out years will be mortgage rates.
From the article:
The Facebook IPO could value the company at as much as $100 billion. Although a real estate boom is far from guaranteed -- some agents believe the boost to the market will be limited and will trickle out over time as employees gradually gain the right to sell their stock -- high-end mortgage bankers are staffing up, too, expecting business to surge.
"What we're seeing is just the possibility of a large IPO is creating a real sense of urgency in our market, both for buyers and for sellers," said Omar Kinaan, of Re/Max Distinctive Properties in Menlo Park.
Sniffing a big payday, Wall Street wealth management firms are opening new offices or expanding in the Bay Area to woo not only Facebook engineers, but also employees of LinkedIn, Zynga and other startups that have gone public. And with many of Facebook's engineers and executives working through an extensive interview process to hire the firms that will manage their new wealth, smaller, local wealth management firms are in the fight for new clients, too.
But however successful Facebook's IPO becomes, don't expect a replay of the financial promiscuity of the 1998-2001 boom, say wealth managers and real estate agents working the social network's new millionaires. Like Zuckerberg, who has long driven a well-used Acura and until recently lived in an inconspicuous rented house a few hundred yards from his then-Palo Alto office, the Facebook fortunati are likely to be more savvy, and less showy, with their wealth than the Internet boomers of the 1990s.
While news reports have featured rumors of Facebook employees planning to spend their new riches on things like archeological trips to the South American rain forest or buying flashy cars, many Facebookers appear to have more grounded plans.
"You might call it, 'the Club of Unpretentious Pretentiousness,' " said Miles McCormick, a veteran real estate agent based in downtown Palo Alto who has represented Facebook employees. "Everyone knows they have wealth now, or they are going to get considerably more wealth shortly, but it's much more subtle" than the 2000 boom.
Still, Carole Rodoni, a real estate agent and economist, expects a price explosion in places popular with the young social Internet crowd, such as Pacific Heights, Noe Valley and south of Market area in San Francisco, and Hillsborough, Atherton and Palo Alto.
"In 2000, they didn't care -- it was bigger, better bling," she said. "But these kids today, because of what they've been through (with the dot-com bust) they are very attuned to statistics and numbers. They will buy the home in the right area, but you have to convince them it's going to help them create wealth. They are not going to just give it away, the way the guys did in 2000."
Of course, the purse strings may loosen if one tech tribe butts up against another over a piece of property.
"You get a Yahoo (YHOO) guy against a Facebook guy against a Zynga guy against an Apple (AAPL) guy against a Google (GOOG) guy, then it's not just about the house," Rodoni said. "It's about the egos."
For the rest of us, Facebook's impact on the state's budget, which has a projected $9.2 billion revenue gap through mid-2013, may be the broadest example of the Zuckerberg dividend.
State officials recently declared they will need to adjust revenue projections upward for the 2012-13 fiscal year because of "the Facebook Effect."
But quantifying the benefit is impossible.
"The best that any expert can offer is a somewhat informed guess," Deputy Legislative Analyst Jason Sisney said in an email. "The range of error around any such guess is very, very large. The positive revenue effect for the state could be $300 million, $500 million, $1 billion, $1.5 billion, or something else. No one knows."
The question is when, in many ares of the country you're already seeing a rebound, others are sill soft, but over time you can count on the fact that real estate pricew will rise once again.
If you need to sell now then do it, remeber if prices start going back up it's only going to cost you more once you've sold and go out to buy something new. If your plans are to sell and then simply rent and you're not under pressure as far as a timeline, then it may make more sense for you to hang tight for awhile.
To update my first answer, here in San Jose, and Cupertino, the Real Estate market is really rebounding. In the last few days I have made offers for several of my clients. We have been up against multiple offers and overbids over list price on each property.
Also, the inventory has dropped very low. I am now having trouble finding properties for sale that match my clients needs.
Charles Butterfield MBA
Real Estate Broker/REALTOR
Cell Phone: (408)509-6218
Email Address: email@example.com
You should make sure like any investment that the home you purchase is something you truly can afford. A home affordability assessment should be completed with both your Realtor and your mortgage representative and a credit counseling course should be completed as these things can make the difference between a successful sale and a happy homestead and the alternative of an almost assured mortgage one may not be able to afford or even a foreclosure.
New Home Market indicators are moving into the positive for the first time in years and maintaining their momentum. That said it is still a very strong buyers market. I guess to answer the question more precisely a Donald Trump quote would be most poetic: There is never a bad time to buy Real Estate, and right now I'm buying everything I can, But at the right price!
No, the properties in my opinion will not return to the high value it was prior to the crash in the near future. Yes, the market will return, but when, that will depend on how the banks handle the amount of homes is foreclosure, and the job market. Remember supply and demand.
If you are thinking of buying I would say yes buy, if you have to sell, you will make it up on the back side with tax credits, and maybe another purchase with a nicer or larger house. If you are an investor the rents are climbing so I say buy.
But we do have the history and that shows that California real estate does rebound and usually higher than before.
We get this question all the time at parties, at the park, in supermarkets, even standing in line waiting for a coffee. What is really important is why do you want to sell or buy. If you would like to retire you must factor in the cost of holding your property for all the years it make take to reach a peak again and then you will be buying at the peak. If you are a buyer - well if you are a buyer you should be buying now.
We have all, especially Californians, begun to consider our personal residences as primarily investments. They are also our homes and the heart of our families. When I was just getting into real estate I had a very wealthy client and I would tout the appreciation of the homes I was showing. He looked down his nose at me and said, "My dear, I expect to appreciate my homes, not for my homes to appreciate." phew, that was a good lesson for me.
So, in the end, do what is best for you in the long run and consider all your options - you never know what the future holds, but you only have today.
In terms of are CA real estate prices on the way up or way down, it really depends on price point. I think the lower price tier in coastal areas has bottomed and could start to slowly move up. The higher end price tiers probably will come down more and may be flat for a while after that.
The stock market has fully recovered from 9-11
Stock prices for British Petroleum has fully recovered since the spill
Banks have been rewarded for their bad behavior
No doc loans are creeping back.
Interests rates are held historically low
Real estate offers the average Joe the best return on investments.
Population continues to grow.
Folks need a roof over their head.
So, in the spirit of "EVER" the answer can only be yes.
Clearly, until a time limit is applied in addition to other attributes there can only be one answer.
Q1: Would the real estate market ever return to near the highs before the crash?
A: Maybe. Probably. Most likely. There are a lot of moving parts to this question â€“ my preliminary predictions were that weâ€™d return to parity at the end of 2014. Donâ€™t think weâ€™re going to make it. When will we? No one really has the slightest clue.
Q2: Is the real estate market on the way down (especially in the south bay area in California) or on it's way up?
A: Depends on the time of day and what week this is â€¦
With rates falling we are seeing the market go up year over year
You can quickly see the monthly trends on my blog at:
Frankly, I see the market gradually and slowly up. A lot has to do with the Stock market
And rates in silicon valley. The stock market has been choppy at best with wild gyrations up and down.
But as employment in the Valley has improved and Cost of money or Rates have spiraled down
Both buyers and investors have surfaced.
It will take 10-15 years to return to past levels.
A loaf of cheap bread will be $15... A nice Ribeye $50 a lb... A gallon of gas will be $8...
But hey... Obamanomics will be able to take credit for "saving" housing by printing up trillions of dollars and spending hundreds of billions on "programs"... LOL!
Historically, we have never had a period of seven years when the market went DOWN.
Real Estate prices have pretty much stayed ahead of Inflation, at least since WWII.
Hypothetically; if Inflation was 4% (constatnt; and nothing in Nature is constant), and Real Estate prices therefore rose 5% anually, then the typical house would double in VALUE in about 14 years.
Naturally, if the appreciation was 6-8%, (even sporatically) is would take less time.
If the average only went up to 8%, the years-to-double would drop to 9!
Naturally, some areas will grow disproportionally than others. (This is where LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION comes in to play.) San Jose would probably be in the 80th percentile, at least, Woodside would be better!.
One way that YOU could affect this growth (for you) is; as your income increases, and your equity grows, you trade up to a better house: Each time you do this, you are leveraging more and better Real Estate. There is no telling where you could be in 10 years.
In order to return the the highs before the crash we would need to have the home buying process corrupted from start to finish, as the banks were able to accomplish before the crash.
Can such corruptions occur again? As long a greed drives decisions, you bet.
Has the public and will future citizens use credit with extreme restraint? The cards are still stacked against them.
Five, six or ten years from now, when today's investor wants to cash out, will their holding be able to force market prices higher? Can they conspire to control prices? Will they try? Will they go to jail? Did any bankers go to jail?
Will the USA have a manufacturing or population or immigrant explosion? Demand could influence prices higher.
The wise decision,
short term - flat is the new increase
long term 3% annual would be an excellent outcome.
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This is as good as information you are going to get. It is all speculations.
If you go to the green navigation bar at the top of the Trulia site you can
look at the local info for San Jose.
If you are a seller and do not have to move, your best bet is to wait. Just
remember it will not get better over night.
I can't remember a mess like we have now in my past 28 years as a Realtor.