I agree with John the Bruce as I work in the financial industry and things are just getting started when it comes to layoffs and poor earnings, etc. John points this out and I wanted to add that since the stock markets are down, the dollar is down -- individual investors are not liquid b/c their savings are in stocks that are sitting at a loss right now. They are not going to sell their stocks to buy property. I have read writers on this site talk about less expensive surrounding areas like W.NY, Hoboken, Brooklyn, JC, etc. Yes these places are less expensive however if people are not liquid for a downpayment and they are worried about their jobs -- they aren't going to buy anywhere. I agree with another member that NYC is insulated from the problems faced with other markets -- however it is definitely not insulated from the drop in the stock market, etc. If anything -- this market is MOST affected.

Sun Apr 13 2008, 07:17

may have, need to look the article up but there was reference to Jan/Feb being the cyclical down points during the year. rentals are apparently steady but the overbuilding out there is over the top and I imagine getting financing for the sub $2mm market is all but dried up since few buyers are shopping for primary residences. watch layoffs expand and Brooklyn - i think greenpoint and the heights are going to tell us a lot about how far and how quickly manhattan is going to pullback. this is going to be a tough quarter for the street with no signs of a job recovery for wall street anywhere in sight.

Mon Apr 7 2008, 13:50

JR - average selling price in the Hampton's was off 19% Dec 07 through Feb 08. i imagine transactions were off as well. check the news.....bloomberg and WSJ ran it.
~~~~~~~~~~
I'm sure they did. Bad news always leads. Do you think they also noted that prices were up 17 percent the quarter previous?

Mon Apr 7 2008, 13:15

JR - average selling price in the Hampton's was off 19% Dec 07 through Feb 08. i imagine transactions were off as well. check the news.....bloomberg and WSJ ran it.

Mon Apr 7 2008, 12:59

Anyone see the news about Hampton's real estate being down 20% Dec 2007 through Feb 2008?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prices or sales? Prices were up 17.5% the quarter before (4th quarter 2007). Sales were down 14.5% in the 4th. So sales were down, prices went up. Percent of sales were down because the inventory was so large. I don't have 1st quarter statistics at my fingertips yet. But personally I did pretty good the first couple months of this year. I was happy.

Mon Apr 7 2008, 05:14

Dave,
Could you please provide insight by price band, since all segments of the market do not perform the same? It's sort of like holiday retail sales being down....but sales of electronics are doing well....or iPods and iPhones are flying off the shelf. Please elaborate on your prior posts by defining which areas of the market are up and which are down.
Tx
Deborah Madey - Real Estate Broker
Peninsula Realty Group - New Jersey

Sun Apr 6 2008, 19:04

Anyone see the news about Hampton's real estate being down 20% Dec 2007 through Feb 2008? Anyone catch Halstead's market research guy on Bloomberg this afternoon? He's calling for a drop off in values and volume. Anyone who thinks that a cheaper Manhattan doesn't necessarily translate into discounts in the metro area should be looking for another career.

Wed Apr 2 2008, 19:20

I don't even have to watch TV for the good stuff anymore...This is entertainment!!!!

And just to prove how crazy the world is: Hi, who NEVER has given good advice on this board yet got "Best Answer" for this!!!!!!

His answer was:
"BEST ANSWER
moody new yorkers (with heavy nasal accent like the dominos pizza commercial)

anyways

good luck"
--------------------------------------------------------

The Sky is falling!

Wed Apr 2 2008, 14:13

As seen in the other bubble-icous areas of the U.S., the first step in a steep decline in prices is a steep decline in sales volume. Guess what? NYC just posted the largest sales volume decrease in 18 years. NYC is a little behind the national averages – but NYC won’t be immune forever. It is bounded by fundamentals.

NYC has been artificially buoyed by high wages and big bonuses. Those, too, are coming to an end as the sub-prime fallout has spread to regions of the credit market once thought to be risk-free.

People are a lot less likely to purchase $1 million studio apartments in NYC when they might not have a job next week.

“April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan apartment sales plunged the most in 18 years in the first quarter as buyers faced the prospect of a recession and job cuts at Wall Street securities firms.

Sales fell 34 percent from a year earlier and inventory rose 4.6 percent to 6,194 units, New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. The median price of a Manhattan co-operative apartment or condominium increased 13.2 percent to a record $945,000.”


NYC Realtors™ will say – but everything is fine! Median prices went up!

Median prices in other areas that are now crashing (Las Vegas comes to mind) also increased as sales volume decreased early in the downturn. Par for the course.

Plan accordingly.

Wed Apr 2 2008, 13:48

Liquid and waiting! Now, that is funny!.

Tue Apr 1 2008, 14:42

200,000 bank and financial job cuts expected this year
can't be good for NYC

anyways

good luck

Tue Apr 1 2008, 13:53

not angry at all. liquid and waiting. looks like the Hamptons are now turning downrwards....hmmmm, from the Financial Times yesterday:

Housing slump comes to the Hamptons

By Daniel Pimlott in Washington

Published: March 31 2008 19:35 | Last updated: April 1 2008 02:44

The US housing slump has arrived at the Hamptons, summer playground of the Manhattan elite.

In a sign that falling prices and home sales gluts are no longer limited to the nation’s declining rust-belt cities or bubble markets, prices for gilt-edged properties in East Hampton and Southampton have fallen sharply.

The Long Island resort towns, among the wealthiest and most well-connected in the US, experienced a boom between 1998 and 2007 when home values quadrupled.

“The downturn has caught up with the Hamptons,” said George Simpson, who runs Suffolk Research, a local real estate data company.

The three-month running median sales price of single-family homes in the two towns fell 19.2 per cent to $638,600 (€400,000, £320,000) between December and February, according to Suffolk Research. That is almost as much as the 19.3 per cent drop in home prices that Miami and Las Vegas, where the boom and bust in the housing markets has been most dramatic, suffered in the whole of last year, according to the S&P Case-Shiller house price indices.

Tue Apr 1 2008, 10:41

Thank you for your screed, Fred. It shows us exactly what your beef is. The NYC market is just a smokescreen. I understand how frustrating it is to not be able to afford to live where you want. I worked in Manhattan myself back in the 70s and 80s, and it sure was frustrating having to travel 2 hours on the LIRR everyday because I didn't want to pay 275 a month for a shoebox sized studio. But I got over it and so will you, I hope. Otherwise you will spend the rest of your life being angry at people because they can afford what you can't.

Tue Apr 1 2008, 09:47

To all the brokers - To be sure the NY metro market is unique, but that in and of itself does not insulate it from the larger economy. Jumbo rates are way up; equity requirements are now 15% to 20% for non-conforming mortgages versus 5% to 10% last spring and volume sales are off. How can you sit there and pretend that the best advice is not to wait and see? Some of you remind me of the NAR's housing economic research that until last December stood firm on housing's resilience, even in the face of mounting subprime issues. Folks don't get it. The underlying credit in the non-conforming segment is still good, but the CDO mess drives liquidity in the jumbo market. Until these assets get sold/written-up or otherwise monetized, the BANKS are not offering attractive terms. Buyers who can put out 500k or a million cash know this. why would they buy today when (a) prices at best plateau, which just doesn't seem reasonable, (b) interest rates are punitive once you get into the 8.0% plus range (why? because the bank gets all the upside), (c) the ROE given the need for a larger downpayment, is half, and (d) any person with the means to spend serious money knows that we haven't seen the bottom when there hasn't been capitulation on the part of sellers. Bloomberg's piece yesterday is the beginning of the correction in Manhattan. Europe is slowing down; wall street will continue to lay-off; NYC housing inventories are up 15% because developers are being forced by their lenders to complete their projects and thus illuminating all the dark inventory; and the stock market seems to be finally turning a corner. If I can get 10% in the stock market and play a wait and see attitude towards housing values, I wait. Which is in fact what we are doing. I am insulted by the blatant aggression demonstrated by some brokers who depend on buyers - rather than at least educating yourselves about the relevant issues ahead of this market. There is a reason why the 5% broker fee is coming down and some of you provide clear justification as to why. Brokers are just front-ends to the MLS network and the very webforum we are using here can supplant the brokers in a second. In order to add value, brokers need to fess up to the fact that playing the buy and sell side is an implicit conflict of interest. You can't be a fiduciary for both buyer and seller - one must pick a side. All of this rah rah market is going up mentality is simply a consequence of an unregulated (soon to-be-regulated) industry. John - Cute attempt at village humor. MCD is a great stock even though the burgers upset my stomach; kind of like your failure to think.

Tue Apr 1 2008, 09:15

In the worldwide markets, NY is a bargain. It is not immune to impact from our financial markets, but has held up better than most areas. Even within NY or NJ, certain price bands fare better than others. Many areas of NJ benefit from the strength of NY.

NY has felt some impact, but overall......we...in NY or NJ are not singing the same song as the national media may sing. Town by town, and price band by price band, there are variables.

The uppermost end of the high tier is doing well in many areas. Buyers are some of the wealthiest and most successful in the country.

Mon Mar 31 2008, 19:40

Hey guys - real estate values never go down, especially in NEW YORK! Buy now before you’re priced out forever, dude, because NOW is a great time to buy!

Mon Mar 31 2008, 19:36

John- I just have to say "You are my idol!"

Mon Mar 31 2008, 19:26

Fred - Just like you know how long a batch of fries need to stay down in the oil and what ingredients are on a Big Mac. You know your job, I know mine.

Mon Mar 31 2008, 19:20