Any of the Realtors here, including me, can run a historical price report for you. But none of us can tell you what's going to happen 10 years out, and don't trust anyone who thinks they can. 10 "experts" whether economists or Realtors, or investors, will give you 10 different answers. Going back 10 years it's been an incredible run up. But that's no guarantee the same thing will happen over the next 10 years, in fact many will argue the next 10 will be terrible (I'm not one of them). I do have some thoughts on what might see a disproportionate run up in value compared to other properties... but you're going to have to email me for that opinion... the "info@" email on my site (below) will find me.

Hey Erica, if you're looking 10 years out, not too many of us professionals are going to say too much specifically to help you out. We can generalize based on the last 10 years that values would rise, even in neighborhoods that are considered "distressed" or "up and coming". But do consider the following: generally in a 10 year span, you can bet on at least one recession, or perhaps months of recession-like activity where things are slow; you can bet on perhaps a natural event that affects real estate value (like an earthquake, strong storm, or something creating a permanent negative effect); you can bet that it's possible a high value neighborhood can adjust to lesser value. Given all this, if the event or condition that affects value to your property happens in the last two or three years, it could seem that your investment didn't perform the way you wanted to or to your expectations. The good news is that San Francisco as a whole, over long timelines, actually performs well for most home owners - even under duress or in conditions where calamity exists.

Erica,
If you are going to hold for a ten year period you will very likely see a good amount of apprecation. Property in SF has only retreated in value once since the 70's and that was about a 3% drop on average in the late 80's. I don't believe that we will ever see the kind of run up that we've seen in the last 10 years but in the next ten property values will continue to go up.
If you want statistics then some one would have to run them or you can see if DataQuick will supply for them for free.

Hi Erica,

My advice to all my buyer clients these days as in the past is if you are buying a place as your home, then find a place that fits your criteria and budget and then buy.

Ideally, we all would like to make money on our biggest investment -- a home. However, there are so many factors that can affect value at any point in time. If you looked back to the early 1980s, interest rates were in the double digits, property still sold, but the high interest rates affected value. You might think twice then about purchasing at such high interest rates. New York City had similar problems in the 1970s and in the early 80's with property values. But the change in 30 years time has truly been amazing.

The one wonderful thing about history is that we can learn from the past and try to make future decisions on what has happened. Housing prices in San Francisco have gone up and down over the past 25 years. That being said, the trajectory for housing in SF has for the most part been moving upward. Barring, unforeseen major catastrophes (e.g., a massive earthquake, deep economic recession or a major terrorist attack in the US) my bet would be on increasing values over the long term for San Francisco. In the right location, at the right price and with the right property (detail, characteristics, etc.)

I hope this helps to some degree. Let me know if you've got questions, happy to oblige.

-- Kevin

The market won't necessarily perform the same as it has the past ten years.