At the moment in Kirkland for single family homes, we aren't at the beginning of "season" due to unusually cold temperatures and bad weather for this time of year.

Looks like May 15th may end up being the start of "the season", so expect this season to be short. Still there are quite a few buyers on the fence who want to live in Kirkland, so we can't judge "the market" by current or recent past. 1/3 of all sellers will be successful and sell quickly. 2/3 will not. That is down from 50% a couple of years ago.

Tue Apr 15 2008, 13:27

Thank you everyone for your generous feedback and in depth thought, much appreciated!

Tue Apr 8 2008, 18:03

Hailey,

Before you make any decisions make sure to have an agent perform a market analysis on your home. There's a lot of online sites out there that are not 100% reliable. You may find that prices in your area are not dropping after all. As for when to sell; that depends in large part on your future plans but Spring and Summer are always a good time when homes look their best.

Tue Apr 8 2008, 17:33

Many parts of the Seattle and Eastside area markets have already bottomed out. For example, in zip code 98029 (Klahanie area on the Plateau) in 9/07 there were 30 active listings for sale in the $450-550K range, and only 2 new sales. In February , 2008 there were 24 active listings there, and 9 new sales . That means the number of months of inventory based on new pending sales went from a 15 month supply to a 2.7 month supply. A good agent can provide you with similar stats for your area.

Wed Apr 2 2008, 07:33

Hi Everyone,

This question was duplicated and I'm going to close that thread but wanted to let everyone know that additional answers can be found at the link below.

Best Wishes,

Emily Gibson
Customer Service Representative

Mon Mar 31 2008, 17:39

I'm moving this discussion off Hailey's question.
Go to the referenced page to continue.
Hailey, you're welcome to join in and put your 2 cents in as well! :)

Sat Mar 29 2008, 18:48

Mark, This is not the appropriate place for a personal debate but there is nothing contradictory about my statements, and we, as Americans, should not be concerned about Boeing and Microsoft's oversees sells. That benefits Microsoft and Boeing, not Americans. How many people do these people employ? (Microsoft has 79,000 employees in 102 countries; even if all of them were in America, that number in insignificant). We have more members in community Churches than they employ.

And should we turn America into a Third World country full of cheap labor for the sake of a few? Working like slaves from sun up to sun down for a dollar that can't buy a loaf of bread? This is the same twisted thinking that believed that sending American jobs oversees was good for Americans.

What I pointed out was that the things that influence the market are national things, not local things, such as the cost of food and gas. And you obviously did not really read my statement or you misunderstood me. Whatever the case may be, you are wrong about my position and understanding.

As for the weak dollar and our economy, I think you need to do some research and see what most people in America do for a living and see if they depend on oversees shoppers or American shoppers to keep a job. Why do you think Bush pushed this rebate bill? Because our economy depends on American shoppers to survive.

You know, one of the problems with Americans is that we don't understand true equality and how things are all connected. We are one country, people. No man is an island. And just because a few Americans may benefit from free trade agreements and a weak dollar, the AVERAGE American does not. And this is what we must think about. And this is why I do what I do. Pull a wealth report and see how less than 1% of Americans are rich. Should we worry about how that 1% or the other 99%?

Hailey, do forgive me, but I don't know why I am singled out on this site all the time. My opinion and advice is honest and sound. It may not be the only answer, but it is an answer. Blind optimism is dangerous. It provides opportunities for the tricksters.

And all this started because I cautioned you on buying right now due to the FACT that this market has not corrected itself as of yet. This is what world renowned economist are saying also. In fact, things are so bad the one world famous economist said that we should buy farms and grow our own food. I don't make this stuff up, I own retail businesses, I have employees, so I know how our economy works. Good luck, Hailey, and I'm sorry for this.

Khazeem Asadullah

Sat Mar 29 2008, 16:25

My apologies Hailey but I feel compelled to address the comments here about the real estate market.

Khazeem - I think your comments are somewhat contradictory. You claim that the real estate market is not local but then you site the example of California, which is one of those states hardest hit by the slowdown, and how "we MUST see a national collasp (at different rates)." If different areas are affected differently, how does that not mean that real estate is not local. I see equity growth percentages right now in Seattle neighborhoods that swing between +15% to -5% within 5 miles of each other. On a more fundamental level, if real estate is not local, why don't comparable houses in Seattle sell for the same price as they do in Indianapolis?

I realize that the economy is tied to, in varying degrees, the national and international market. But it is also more complicated than that. Different areas of the country are focused on different industries - when the dotcom bubble burst Seattle was dramatically affected but I doubt that the small towns in the corn belt were. Also, areas like Phoenix and San Diego were building single family houses at a far greater rate than was King County (Seattle), which has very strict regs curtailing sprawl that has limited the glut of single family homes on the market.

I'm not saying that the national downturn will not affect everybody, but, Econonmics 101, when the dollar is weak those businesses that sell exports are generally the ones that fair the best ; ) Boeing and Microsoft don't just sell products in the US.

Sat Mar 29 2008, 12:40

Do you have to sell? It's a bad time to sell. Keep it. Rent it out if you need to move.

Fri Mar 28 2008, 20:46

Hello, James.

I would like to apologize for deviating off topic to address James' response, but I must.

James, I've read your response and I can see you are very intelligent. I like that. So lets look at this situation..... I understand why you disagreed with me but you must think of the big picture. In theory, we always have more people needing to "live somewhere" than we have homes for sale. If that's the definition of a "buyers market" than it has, and always will, be a "buyers market". But what made this market "boom and bust" was not jobs, but credit and the ratio of "real income" and "cost of living". And if the credit dry up, the housing market will stall. And if people's "real income" is taken up by other expenses like gas, food,and housing, then they will have to cut back on something else. This cut back forces smaller business to close, causing more people to loose jobs, causing more businesses to close, causing more people to loose jobs, causing people to foreclose, causing more speculators and investors to come in thinking that they see an opportunity. And the only thing that happens is that THEY get stuck holding the bag, so to speak.

Don't get me wrong, the housing market as a business is not going to fade in to never-never land, but what is happening is not a buyers market and real estate is not local, because the economy and consumerism, which fuels the market, is national. What you are describing is the same thing that happened in California a couple of years ago. Everyone flocked there because of jobs, etc. But once housing reached a point whereas the average person's "real income" was being consumed by rent and or mortgage, they had to sacrifice other things, and the economy started to slow. Now they are leaving and heading back to the mid-west.

This gives the appearance of local prosperity or despair, but it is still affected by the national economy. Example: As an owner of retail business in New Orleans, when we had a good day of business in New Orleans, and I watched MSNBC that night, New York had a good day in retail; California had a good day in retail; Chicago had a good day in retail, etc. It is all connected. Honestly, I can't explain how, but I know for a fact that it is. And in America, most of the citizens are employed by smaller businesses that provide services or sell goods. This IS the U.S. real income base. If people have to stop shopping because of increased housing, food, and gas expenses, then that area will witness an economic collasp. And since housing increased across the nation, gas prices increased across the nation, food prices increased across the nation, and the dollar is weak all over (and not just in Mississippi), though the increase my be at different rates, we MUST see a national collasp (at different rates). And due to the rise in gas and food, and the decrease in the actual buying power of the dollar, home prices MUST go down yet some more.

And lastly James, your response proves all that I say to be true because you stated that your area is booming and growing yet you have "more sellers than buyers" then something is seriously wrong. People flocking to an area for jobs don't mean a thing in the big picture. If enough people can't afford to fly, what would happen at Boeing??? Layoffs! If people stop buying Microsoft products because of the loss of jobs or a weak dollar, what will happen at Microsoft???? Layoffs!!

People must "live somewhere", and Microsoft and Boeing must sell their products and services to someone................ like dominoes, one fall, all fall. Economics 101.

Again, I'm sorry for the deviation.

Khazeem Asadullah

Fri Mar 28 2008, 18:58

Any answer you get will be a matter of opinion as there's no real way to predict when things will change. Back in 2006, people said the market is going to crash. I remember being told that interest rates will break the 7% mark by end of 2007...it never did. Real estate is not a national market. It's a very localized one.

With that...there's gotta be a way to get some idea right? You've probably heard of the saying in investments...past performance does not guarantee future results. BUT..it does give you an idea of what you could expect if all things remain fairly the same. The best time to sell ...in my opinion ..is when the most buyers are out there shopping. It's not fool proof, as you have more competition with other people wanting to sell as well, but ...you still have the broadest audience which I believe improves your chances the most.

So here's how Kirkland has done in recent years:
In 2002 the peak month for buyer activity (that actually pulled the trigger on buying a house) was May with April,June and August all essentially tied for runner-up.

In 2003, April and June tied for peak month with September a close runner up.

In 2004, the peak month was June with April as the runner-up.

In 2005, the peak month was May with March as the runner-up.

In 2006, the peak month was May again with March as the runner-up again.

In 2007...April and May were tied with March as a very close runner up.

You can see in the last few years ... the peak months were between March and May. So...to answer your question, ...I'd say ...now! :)

In a challenging market, your next question would probably be what could you do to improve the chances to sell your house. There are, in my opinion, only a few critical things, preparation, price, patience and exposure. You and your agent both have a role in all of these things. I would highly recommend you get an idea from different agents on what they perceive to be the "proper" marketing plan is for our market and how well they execute it. Actually, ..there's really only one marketing plan ...get the house exposed to the widest group as possible. How an individual does it is what separates one agent from another. Pricing is a big thing too. With the last several hot years in our area, lots of people have a skewed perspective of what their house is really worth. Zillow is a great place to start out, but even Zillow folks admit it shouldn't be the holy grail to pricing. Get a thorough pricing analysis from agents you interview and compare them all.

As to what Khazeem said, ...I have to disagree ...a lot...with his perception of the housing appreciation over the years. Going back to what I said...real estate is a local market. Yes, ... lax credit rules did introduce a lot of buyers into the market that usually wouldn't have been in there, but locally, we have had really good job growth over the last several years. Boeing has done well, Microsoft continues to hire in droves. People continue to flock to the northwest. These people have to live somewhere. For us, ..that is what I think fueled much of our growth. I'm not sure how he differentiates a correction from a down swing or a slump. In effect, they are all the same thing...just semantics. A Buyer's Market is defined (at least by me) by having more sellers than buyers. In Kirkland, the ratio of new listings (sellers) to pending sales (buyer) is around 3 right now!! ... Average for the last several years has been in the 1.5-ish range. So for every one house that sells, ..3 more come on the market. How is that NOT a buyer's market?

I can go on and on and on, but I'm getting away from the question so I'll stop now.

Fri Mar 28 2008, 17:50

Hi Hailey,

Khazeem is correct that no one can accurately predict the bottom. It could be as far out as 2010 or it could be the end of this year. Zillow and other sites are reasonably accurate if you live in a neighborhood where all the homes were built within a few years of each other, similar styles, etc.

Our area is still fairing very well compared to most of the rest of the nation. But several factors like neighborhood and the price range you fall into are affecting equity growth. If you want to contact me with your zip code and the price range you believe your house to be in, I would be happy to email some graphs of where the market has gone in the past two years, very enlightening information. You may be suprised.

Fri Mar 28 2008, 17:32

Unfortunately we have not seen the bottom of the drop as of yet, so I, nor anyone else on this site, will be able to tell you when to expect things to get better in regards to home values. As I teach my clients, the increase of home values in America was not due to natural market forces. It was a result of greed, speculators, and easy credit. The market is now in a correction. Not a "slump", not a "down swing", this is not a "buyers market", etc. This is a correction. And once it correct, it may be some time before housing prices reach the points we have seen recently....... if ever again.

Khazeem Asadullah

email: info@serapisdebtservices.com

Fri Mar 28 2008, 16:36