The problem is just too big to get a handle on.
Everyday more people are surrendering their homes or selling short sale.
Banks are adding to the problem in taking so long to respond to home owners efforts
to modify their exsiting loans.
Flagstaff Real Estate Professional
"Results through Performance"
Russ Lyon Sotheby's International
The one extra wrinkle that could add to that is unemployment. If it continues for years and years (some think it could easily) that could add more foreclosures into the mix that are not expected now for many years to come.
I'm going to go on record by saying the end of May 2014. My opinion is that the housing market is not going to be a "V" shape curve. I feel that it's going to be a bathtub shape recovery. And the housing recovery is going to be directly tied to the job/unemployment rate (which I don't think is going to get any better till the beginning of 2013).
- People can clearly afford the payments.
- Have enough down payment for the property. (Sure, you have those which go FHA and VA. Then just refer back to the first statement.
- That their credit is at least 650. Anything under this means that they can't manage their funds properly.
- Must be prepared to do all the required work and upkeep.
Yes, there are programs to help people get into homes (much much scarcer now). Yet that does not mean those people SHOULD be able to get a home. Home ownership means a lot of work and upkeep. Some people can't deal with that and their home gets run down and the value decreases.
Home ownership is definitely not for everyone and everyone needs to know that.
If you mean--as I assume you do--when will this massive wave of foreclosures return to the trickle it was a decade or so ago, then my guess is about 2013. Let's say June 2013.
Why don't you keep a record of the guesses/estimates in response to your question, then come back when the market has stabilized and let us know how we all did?
Hope that helps.